Natural landscapes are increasingly fragmented due to human activity. This contributes to isolation and inadequate gene flow among wildlife populations. These threats intensify where populations are already low, and gene flow is compromised. Ensuring habitat connectivity despite transformed landscapes can mitigate these risks. Leopards are associated with high levels of biodiversity and are the last widely occurring, free-roaming apex predator in South Africa. Although highly adaptable, leopard survival is reduced by human-caused mortality and habitat destruction. We aimed to assess the connectivity of leopard habitat in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape, South Africa. We predicted leopard habitat by correlating GPS data from 31 leopards to environmental features that included human-associated and natural landscapes. We used circuit theory to delineate corridors linking known leopard populations. Finally, using camera traps, we tested whether five predicted corridors were used by leopards. Leopard habitat was strongly correlated to moderate slopes and areas of natural land-cover and plantations, highlighting mountainous areas as important habitat with high connectivity probability. While most habitat patches showed some level of connectivity, leopards avoided highly transformed landscapes, potentially isolating some populations. Where corridors are not functional, active conservation measures for species connectivity becomes important.

Important metapopulation dynamics are disrupted by factors such as habitat loss, climate change, and human-induced mortality, culminating in isolated wildlife populations and threatening species survival. Source populations, where birth rates exceed mortality and connectivity facilitates dispersal, contrast with sink populations, where mortality outstrips births, risking localised extinction. Recolonisation by individuals from source populations is pivotal for species survival. The leopard is the last free-roaming apex predator in South Africa and plays an important ecological role. In the Eastern and Western Cape provinces in South Africa, leopard populations have low densities and fragmented population structures. We identified a leopard population that, after being locally extinct for a century, appeared to recolonise an ‘island’ of mountainous habitat. We aimed to understand potential factors driving this recolonisation using recent camera trapping surveys and historical statutory destruction permits. We employed spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) methods to estimate the leopard density and explore potential factors which best explain density. We found that the recently recolonised Piketberg population now exhibits some of the highest densities reported in the region (~1.8 leopards/100 km²; CI 1.4–2.5). Livestock, human presence, elevation, and the camera trap grid appeared to explain leopard detection rates. When considering the historic data, the re-emergence of leopards in the Piketberg coincided with the cessation of the extensive state-sponsored and state-enabled culling of the species, and the change in land use from livestock production to crop agriculture, which likely contributed to the recolonisation. Elucidating these factors deepens our understanding of leopard metapopulation dynamics in relation to land use and species management and highlights the crucial role of private land and state agencies and associated policies in species persistence.