Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human–wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

In South Africa there are efforts to manage reintroduced subpopulations of the Vulnerable cheetahAcinonyx jubatusin small reserves (10–1,000 km²) as a managed metapopulation. We estimated areas required to support cheetahs given varying prey densities, prey profiles and presence/absence of competing predators. A recent population and habitat viability assessment indicated that 20 subpopulations of 10 cheetahs or 10 subpopulations of 15 cheetahs are required to retain 90% of the heterozygosity of free-ranging cheetahs and to overcome stochastic events in the absence or presence of lionsPanthera leo, respectively. We estimate that 203 ± SE 42 km²(range 48–466 km²) is required to support 10 cheetahs in the absence of lions, whereas 703 ± SE 311 km²(166–2,806 km²) is required to support 15 cheetahs given equal numbers of lions, and 2,424 ± SE 890 km²(727–3,739 km²) given equal numbers of leopardsPanthera pardus, spotted hyaenasCrocuta crocuta, wild dogsLycaon pictusand lions. Existing subpopulations of cheetahs generally occur at densities higher than our mean predicted densities but usually within the range of predicted densities. The large area requirements of cheetahs have implications for the development of the managed metapopulation. Sourcing reintroduction sites of the sizes required to support recommended subpopulation sizes will be difficult. Consequently, innovative measures to increase the carrying capacity of reserves for cheetahs and/or to enlarge reserves will be required. Managers may be forced to stock cheetahs close to or beyond the carrying capacity of their reserves. Consequently, careful management of reintroduced subpopulations will be required to prevent declines in prey populations.