Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

The potential environmental benefits of hybrid electric regional turboprop aircraft in terms of fuel consumption are investigated. Lithium–air batteries are used as energy source in combination with conventional fuel. A validated design and analysis framework is extended with sizing and analysis modules for hybrid electric propulsion system components. In addition, a modified Bréguet range equation, suitable for hybrid electric aircraft, is introduced. The results quantify the limits in range and performance for this type of aircraft as a function of battery technology level. A typical design for 70 passengers with a design range of 1528 km, based on batteries with a specific energy of 1000 Wh/kg, providing 34% of the shaft power throughout the mission, yields a reduction in emissions by 28%.