Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NO_x emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NO_x is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO₂ effects compensate the reduced warming from CO₂ savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO₂ aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO₂ effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.

Aviation can reduce its climate impact by controlling its CO₂-emission and non-CO₂ effects, e.g., aviation-induced contrail-cirrus and ozone caused by nitrogen oxide emissions. One option is the implementation of operational measures that aim to avoid those atmospheric regions that are in particular sensitive to non-CO₂ aviation effects, e.g., where persistent contrails form. The quantitative estimates of mitigation potentials of such climate-optimized aircraft trajectories are required, when working towards sustainable aviation. The results are presented from a comprehensive modelling approach when aiming to identify such climate-optimized aircraft trajectories. The overall concept relies on a multi-dimensional environmental change function concept, which is capable of providing climate impact information to air traffic management (ATM). Estimates on overall climate impact reduction from a one-day case study are presented that rely on the best estimate for climate impact information. Specific weather situation that day, containing regions with high contrail impact, results in a potential reduction of total climate impact, by more than 40%, when considering CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, associated with an increase of fuel by about 0.5%. The climate impact reduction per individual alternative trajectory shows a strong variation and, hence, also the mitigation potential for an analyzed city pair, depending on atmospheric characteristics along the flight corridor as well as flight altitude. The robustness of proposed climate-optimized trajectories is assessed by using a range of different climate metrics. A more sustainable ATM needs to integrate comprehensive environmental impacts and associated forecast uncertainties into route optimization in order to identify robust eco-efficient trajectories.

The strong growth rate of the aviation industry in recent years has created significant challenges in terms of environmental impact. Air traffic contributes to climate change through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other non-CO₂ effects, and the associated climate impact is expected to soar further. The mitigation of CO₂ contributions to the net climate impact can be achieved using novel propulsion, jet fuels, and continuous improvements of aircraft efficiency, whose solutions lack in immediacy. On the other hand, the climate impact associated with non-CO₂ emissions, being responsible for two-thirds of aviation radiative forcing, varies highly with geographic location, altitude, and time of the emission. Consequently, these effects can be reduced by planning proper climate-aware trajectories. To investigate these possibilities, this paper presents a survey on operational strategies proposed in the literature to mitigate aviation’s climate impact. These approaches are classified based on their methodology, climate metrics, reliability, and applicability. Drawing upon this analysis, future lines of research on this topic are delineated.

Comprehensive assessment of the environmental aspects of flight movements is of increasing interest to the aviation sector as a potential input for developing sustainable aviation strategies that consider climate impact, air quality and noise issues simultaneously. However, comprehensive assessments of all three environmental aspects do not yet exist and are in particular not yet operational practice in flight planning. The purpose of this study is to present a methodology which allows to establish a multi-criteria environmental impact assessment directly in the flight planning process. The method expands a concept developed for climate optimisation of aircraft trajectories, by representing additionally air quality and noise impacts as additional criteria or dimensions, together with climate impact of aircraft trajectory. We present the mathematical framework for environmental assessment and optimisation of aircraft trajectories. In that context we present ideas on future implementation of such advanced meteorological services into air traffic management and trajectory planning by relying on environmental change functions (ECFs). These ECFs represent environmental impact due to changes in air quality, noise and climate impact. In a case study for Europe prototype ECFs are implemented and a performance assessment of aircraft trajectories is performed for a one-day traffic sample. For a single flight fuel-optimal versus climate-optimized trajectory solution is evaluated using prototypic ECFs and identifying mitigation potential. The ultimate goal of such a concept is to make available a comprehensive assessment framework for environmental performance of aircraft operations, by providing key performance indicators on climate impact, air quality and noise, as well as a tool for environmental optimisation of aircraft trajectories. This framework would allow studying and characterising changes in traffic flows due to environmental optimisation, as well as studying trade-offs between distinct strategic measures.

Aviation aims to reduce its climate effect by adopting trajectories that avoid regions of the atmosphere where aviation emissions have a large impact. To that end, prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) can be used, which provide spatially and temporally resolved information on aviation's climate effect in terms of future near-surface temperature change. These aCCFs can be calculated with meteorological input data obtained from, e.g., numerical weather prediction models. We present here the open-source Python library called CLIMaCCF, an easy-to-use and flexible tool which efficiently calculates both the individual aCCFs (i.e., aCCF of water vapor, nitrogen oxide (NO_x)-induced ozone production and methane depletion, and contrail cirrus) and the merged non-CO₂ aCCFs that combine all these individual contributions. To construct merged aCCFs all individual aCCFs are converted to the same physical unit. This unit conversion needs the technical specification of aircraft and engine parameters, i.e., NO_x emission indices and flown distance per kilogram of burned fuel. These aircraft- and engine-specific values are provided within CLIMaCCF version V1.0 for a set of aggregated aircraft and engine classes (i.e., regional, single-aisle, wide-body). Moreover, CLIMaCCF allows the user to choose from a range of physical climate metrics (i.e., average temperature response for pulse or future scenario emissions over the time horizons of 20, 50, or 100 years). Finally, we demonstrate the abilities of CLIMaCCF through a series of example applications.