Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) affects the fate and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but its global importance remains uncertain. Accurately modeling and predicting CUE on a global scale is challenging due to inconsistencies in measurement techniques and the complex interactions of climatic, edaphic, and biological factors across scales. The link between microbial CUE and soil organic carbon relies on the stabilization of microbial necromass within soil aggregates or its association with minerals, necessitating an integration of microbial and stabilization processes in modeling approaches. In this perspective, we propose a comprehensive framework that integrates diverse data sources, ranging from genomic information to traditional soil carbon assessments, to refine carbon cycle models by incorporating variations in CUE, thereby enhancing our understanding of the microbial contribution to carbon cycling.

Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon ( SOC ) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4‰ at 16 long‐term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter ( EOM ) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site‐by‐site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM ). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha ⁻¹ year ⁻¹ to increase SOC stocks by 4‰ per year over 30 years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi‐model median ± median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water‐related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi‐model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water‐related variables on SOC decomposition. Highlights: The feasibility of the 4‰ target was studied at 16 long‐term agricultural experiments. An ensemble of soil organic carbon models was used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions. On average across the sites, carbon input had to increase by 119% compared to initial conditions. High uncertainty of the simulations was mainly driven by water‐related variables.

The 4 per 1000 initiative aims to maintain and increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for soil fertility, food security, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon (C) inputs to the soil. In this study, we assessed the amount of organic C inputs that are necessary to reach a target of SOC stocks increase by 4 ‰ yr⁻¹ on average, for 30 years, at 14 long-term agricultural sites in Europe. We used the Century model to simulate SOC stocks and assessed the required level of additional C inputs to reach the 4 per 1000 target at these sites. Then, we analyzed how this would change under future scenarios of temperature increase. Initial stocks were simulated assuming steady state. We compared modeled C inputs to different treatments of additional C used on the experimental sites (exogenous organic matter addition and one treatment with different crop rotations). The model was calibrated to fit the control plots, i.e. conventional management without additional C inputs from exogenous organic matter or changes in crop rotations, and was able to reproduce the SOC stock dynamics. We found that, on average among the selected experimental sites, annual C inputs will have to increase by 43.15 ± 5.05 %, which is 0.66 ± 0.23 $\mathrm{Mg}\mathrm{C}{\mathrm{ha}}^{-\mathrm{1}}{\mathrm{yr}}^{-\mathrm{1}}$ (mean ± standard error), with respect to the initial C inputs in the control treatment. The simulated amount of C input required to reach the 4 ‰ SOC increase was lower than or similar to the amount of C input actually used in the majority of the additional C input treatments of the long-term experiments. However, Century might be overestimating the effect of additional C inputs on SOC stocks. At the experimental sites, we found that treatments with additional C inputs were increasing by 0.25 % on average. This means that the C inputs required to reach the 4 per 1000 target might actually be much higher. Furthermore, we estimated that annual C inputs will have to increase even more due to climate warming, that is 54 % more and 120 % more for a 1 and 5 ^∘C warming, respectively. We showed that modeled C inputs required to reach the target depended linearly on the initial SOC stocks, raising concern on the feasibility of the 4 per 1000 objective in soils with a higher potential contribution to C sequestration, that is soils with high SOC stocks. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks at a large scale and in a future with a warmer climate.

The EU Mission Board for Soil Health and Food proposed a series of quantitative targets for European soils to become healthier. Among them, current soil organic carbon (SOC) concentration losses in croplands (0.5% yr⁻¹ on average at 20 cm depth) should be reversed to an increase of 0.1–0.4% yr⁻¹ by 2030. Quantitative targets are used by policy makers to incentivize the implementation of agricultural practices that increase SOC stocks. However, there are different approaches to calculate them. In this paper, we analyzed the effect of exogenous organic matter (EOM) inputs on the evolution of SOC stocks, with a particular focus on the new European targets and the different approaches to calculate them. First, we illustrated through two case-study experiments the different targets set when the SOC stock increase is calculated considering as reference: 1) the SOC stock level at the onset of the experiment and 2) the SOC stock trend in a baseline, i.e., a control treatment without EOM addition. Then, we used 11 long-term experiments (LTEs) with EOM addition in European croplands to estimate the amount of carbon (C) input needed to reach the 0.1 and 0.4% SOC stock increase targets proposed by the Mission Board for Soil Health and Food, calculated with two different approaches. We found that, to reach a 0.1 and 0.4% increase target relative to the onset of the experiment, 2.51 and 2.61 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of additional C input were necessary, respectively. Reaching a 0.1 and 0.4% increase target relative to the baseline required 1.38 and 1.77 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of additional input, respectively. Depending on the calculation method used, the estimated amounts of additional C input required to reach each quantitative target were significantly different from each other. Furthermore, the quality of C input as represented by the C retention rate of the additional organic material (EOM and crop residue), had a significant effect on the variation of SOC stocks. Our work highlights the necessity to take into consideration the additional C input required to increase SOC stocks, especially for soils with decreasing SOC stocks, when targets are set independently of the baseline.