The 2015 Paris agreement aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperature rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Reducing CH₄ emissions from leaking pipelines presents a relatively achievable objective. While walking and driving surveys are commonly used to detect leaks, the detection probability (DP) is poorly characterized. This study aims to investigate how leak rates, survey distance and speed, and atmospheric conditions affect the DP in controlled belowground conditions with release rates of 0.5-8.5 g min^-1. Results show that DP is highly influenced by survey speed, atmospheric stability, and wind speed. The average DP in Pasquill-Gifford stability (PG) class A is 85% at a low survey speed (2-11 mph) and decreases to 68%, 63%, 65%, and 60% in PGSC B/C, D, E/F, and G respectively. It is generally less than 25% at a high survey speed (22-34 mph), regardless of stability conditions and leak rates. Using the measurement data, a validated DP model was further constructed and showed good performance (R²: 0.76). The options of modeled favorable weather conditions (i.e., PG stability class and wind speed) to have a high DP (e.g., >50%) are rapidly decreased with the increase in survey speed. Walking survey is applicable over a wider range of weather conditions, including PG stability class A to E/F and calm to medium winds (0-5 m s^-1). A driving survey at a low speed (11 mph) can only be conducted under calm to low wind speed conditions (0-3 m s^-1) to have an equivalent DP to a walking survey. Only calm wind conditions in PG A (0-1 m s^-1) are appropriate for a high driving speed (34 mph). These findings showed that driving survey providers need to optimize the survey schemes to achieve a DP equivalence to the traditional walking survey.

Methane (CH₄) leakage from natural gas (NG) pipelines poses an environmental, safety, and economic threat to the public. While previous leak detection and quantification studies focus on the aboveground infrastructure, the analysis of underground NG pipeline leak scenarios is scarce. Furthermore, no data from controlled release experiments have been published on the accuracy of methods used to (1) quantify emissions from an area source and (2) use these emissions to quantify the size of a subsurface leak. This proof-of-concept work uses CH₄ mole fraction, as measured by a single gas sensor, as an input to a simple dispersion-based model (WindTrax) under ideal conditions (i.e., in a field) and compares the calculated emissions to the known controlled NG release rates. The aboveground and surface CH₄ mole fractions were measured for 5 days at a field testbed using controlled underground release rates ranging from 0.08 to 0.52 kg hr^–1 (3.83–24.94 ft³ hr^–1). Results confirmed that the mean normalized CH₄ mole fraction increases as the atmosphere transitions from the Pasquill–Gifford (PG) stability class A (extremely unstable) to G (extremely stable). The estimated surface CH₄ emissions showed large temporal variability, and for the emission rates tested, at least 6 h of data are needed to have a representative estimate from subsurface pipeline leaks (±27% of the controlled release rate on average). The probability that the emission estimate is within ±50% of the controlled release rate (P_±50%) is approximately 50% when 1 h of data is collected; the probability approaches 100% with 3–4 h of data. Findings demonstrate the importance of providing enough data over time for accurate estimation of belowground leak scenarios. By adopting the estimation method described in this study, operators can better estimate leakage rates and identify and repair the largest leaks, thereby optimizing annual greenhouse gas emissions reductions and improving public safety.