Surface water is of great importance to ecosystems and economies. Crucial to understanding hydrological variability and its relationships to human activities at large scales, open-access satellite datasets and big-data computational methods are now enabling the global mapping of the distribution and changes of inland water over time. A machine-learning algorithm, previously used only to map water at single points in time, was applied over 16 years of the USGS Landsat archive to detect and map surface water over central Asia from 2000 to 2015 at a 30-m, monthly resolution. The resulting dataset had an overall classification accuracy of 99.59% (±0.32% standard error), 98.24% (±1.02%) user’s accuracy, and 87.12% (±3.21%) producer’s accuracy for water class. This study describes the temporal extension of the algorithm and the application of the dataset to present patterns of regional surface water cover and change. The findings indicate that smaller water bodies are dramatically changing in two specific ecological zones: the Kazakh Steppe and the Tian Shan Montane Steppe and Meadows. Both the maximum and minimum extent of water bodies have decreased over the 16-year period, but the rate of decrease of the maxima was double that of the minima. Coverage decreased in each month from April to October, and a significant decrease in water area was found in April and May. These results indicate that the dataset can provide insights into the behavior of surface water across central Asia through time, and that the method can be further developed for regional and global applications.

Although Central Asia has a strong continental climate with a constant moisture deficit and low relative humidity, it is covered by thousands of lakes that are critical to the sustainability of ecosystems and human welfare in the region. Vulnerability to climate change and anthropogenic activities have contributed to dramatic inter-annual and seasonal changes of the lakes. In this study, we explored the high spatio–temporal dynamics of the lakes of Central Asia using the terraPulse™ monthly Landsat-derived surface water extent dataset from 2000 to 2015 and the HydroLAKES dataset. The results identified 9493 lakes and significant linear decreasing trends were identified for both the number (rate: −85 lakes/year, R²: 0.69) and area (rate: −1314.1 km²/year, R²: 0.84) of the lakes in Central Asia between 2000 and 2015. The decrease rate in lake area accounted for 1.41% of the total lake area. About 75% of the investigated lakes (7142 lakes), mainly located in the Kazakh steppe (especially in the north) and the Badghyz and Karabil semi-desert terrestrial ecological zones, experienced a decrease in the water area. Lakes with increasing water area were mainly distributed in the Northern Tibetan Plateau–Kunlun Mountains alpine desert and Qaidam Basin semi-desert zones in the east-south corner of Central Asia. The possible driving factors of lake decreases in Central Asia were explored for the Aral Sea and Tengiz Lake on yearly and monthly time scales. The Aral Sea showed the greatest decrease in the summer months because of increased evaporation and massive irrigation, while the largest decrease for Tengiz Lake was observed in early spring and was linked to decreasing snowmelt.

As the climate warms, the impact of drought on plants has increased. We aimed to construct a comprehensive drought index (CDI), coupling soil-vegetation-atmosphere drought and heat conditions based on multi-source information, and to combine it with static and dynamic drought hazard evaluation models to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural drought disasters and hazards during the growing season (May to September) in Northeast China (NEC). The results demonstrated that the CDI could combine the benefits of meteorology (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), vegetation (vegetation health index, VHI), and soil (standardized soil moisture condition index, SMCI) indices. This was performed using a relative weighting method based on the remote sensing data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to determine the weights of SPEI, VHI, and SMCI. The CDI for drought monitoring has the advantages of broad spatial range, long time range, and high accuracy, and can effectively reflect agricultural drought; the growing season in NEC showed a trend of becoming drier during 1982–2020. However, the trends of the drought index, the impact range of drought events, and the hazard of agricultural drought all turned around 2000. The drought hazard was highly significant (p < 0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2020. The frequency of drought disasters was the highest, and the hazard was the greatest in May. The best level of climatic yield anomalies in maize were explained by drought hazard in August (R² = 0.28). In the center and western portions of the study area, farmland and grassland areas were where higher levels of hazard were most commonly seen. The dynamic hazard index is significantly correlated with climatic yield anomalies and can reflect the actual impact of drought on crop yield. The study results serve as a scientific foundation for drought risk assessment and management, agricultural planning, and the formulation of drought adaptation policies, as well as for ensuring food security in China.

Measurements of solar radiation reflected from Earth’s surface are the basis for calculating albedo, vegetation indices, and other terrestrial attributes. However, the “bi-directional” geometry of illumination and viewing (i.e., the Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)) impacts reflectance and all variables derived or estimated based on these data. The recently released MODIS BRDF/Albedo Model Parameters (MCD43A1 Collection 6) dataset enables retrieval of directional reflectance at arbitrary solar and viewing angles, potentially increasing precision and comparability of data collected under different illumination and observation geometries. We quantified the ability of MCD43A1 Collection 6 for retrieving directional reflectance and compared the daily Collection 6 retrievals to those of MCD43A1 Collection 5, which are retrieved on an eight-day basis. Correcting MODIS-based estimates of surface reflectance from the illumination and viewing geometry of the Terra satellite (MOD09GA) to that of the MODIS Aqua (MYD09GA) overpass, as well as MCD43A4 Collection 6 and Landsat-5 TM images show that the BRDF correction of MCD43A1 Collection 6 results in greater consistency among datasets, with higher R² (0.63–0.955), regression slopes closer to unity (0.718–0.955), lower root mean squared difference (RMSD) (0.422–3.142), and lower mean absolute error (MAE) (0.282–1.735) compared to the Collection 5 data. Smaller levels of noise (observed as high-frequency variability within the time series) in MCD43A1 Collection 6 in comparison to Collection 5 corroborates the improvement of BRDF parameters time series. These results corroborates that the daily MCD43A1 Collection 6 product represents the anisotropy of surface features and results in more precise directional reflectance derivation at any solar and viewing geometry than did the previous Collection 5.

An understanding of mechanisms that underlie the steady increase in crop yields over recent decades is important for promotion of future sustainable yield gains and maintenance of future food security. In this study, we coupled observational maize yield and climate variables based on crop development data from 1981 to 2009 to construct an empirical model that can resolve the separate and combined effects of climate and agricultural practices related to crop timing on maize yield in Northeast China (NEC), the largest spring maize-producing region of China. Climate warming contributed to approximately 15.6% of the trend for increasing yield over the 29 year period. The beneficial effects of climate warming on yield were due to increases in accumulation of temperatures between 10 °C and 30 °C (growing degree days, GDD), which positively contributed to 29.7% of yield and offset the −14.1% yield reduction caused by a trend involving increasing accumulation of temperatures above 30 °C (or extreme degree days, EDD). Adaptive improvements in crop timing practices (e.g. shifts in planting date and selection of later-maturity cultivars) further optimized the impacts of GDD and EDD during the entire growing season by exploiting more GDD during the reproductive phase and fewer EDD during the vegetative phase, thereby contributing to a yield gain of 25.4% over the period from 1981 to 2009. Taken together, climate warming and crop timing practices contributed to 39.4% of the maize yield increase since 1981. Yield losses due to climate warming were detected at only one site located in the southern part of the NEC region, where yield losses must be offset by positive effects of crop timing changes. The trends in maize yields presented here may provide guidance for effective adaptation options for maize production under conditions of continued climate warming.