The impact of climate change on droughts in the Lake Titicaca, Desaguadero River, and Lake Poopo basins (TDPS system) within the Altiplano region was evaluated by comparing projected 2034–2064 and observed 1984–2014 hydroclimate time series. The study used bias-corrected monthly climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed from the standardized precipitation, standardized soil moisture, and standardized runoff indices, respectively, the latter two estimated from a hydrological model. Under scenarios of mean temperature increases up to 3 °C and spatially diverse precipitation changes, our results indicate that meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged in most of the TDPS. A significant increase in the frequency of short-term agricultural and hydrological droughts (duration of 1–2 months) is also projected. The expected decline in annual rainfall and the larger evapotranspiration increase in the southern TDPS combine to yield larger projected rises in the frequency and intensity of agricultural and hydrological droughts in this region.

The retreats of the planet’s tropical glaciers are natural indicators of the variation of precipitation, temperature, and other variables. The glaciers of the Alto Santa sub-basin are sources of freshwater storage for consumptive and non-consumptive use for different sectors. As a result of climatic variations, it is essential to analyze the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). The methodology consisted of processing 6578 MODIS Snow Cover MOD10A1 product images and generating 18-year time series using the Platform Google Earth Engine (GEE). Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) was used to estimate the extent of snow cover, and to validate the MODIS snow cover product, we used the same overlapping date of Landsat 5 and 8 Surface Reflectance Tier 1, to examine the relationships between daily precipitation and temperature. The standardized correlation results gave good results with stations over 4500 m.a.s.l., such as Artesonraju AP2 (4828 m.a.s.l.) of −0.84 and −0.74, precipitation, and temperature. These results show coherent behaviors of the retreat due to the variation of the climatological variables. In some years, there were anomalies in the conduct of the three variables, but these originated from events of natural weather phenomena. Regarding the dynamics of the SCA in 18 years, it decreased from 649 km² to 311.6. km² between 2000 and 2017, representing a retreat of 41%; we can conclude and confirm that the glacier retreat is imminent due to the consequences of climate change, which would affect the security of freshwater from the tropical glaciers of the Peruvian Andes.

Revista Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua (TyCA) del Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA)

La frecuencia y magnitud de los eventos climáticos extremos de precipitación han aumentado significativamente en varios países del mundo, incluido Perú. Estos hechos causan pérdidas económicas y humanas, especialmente en países en vías de desarrollo. La información y metodologías que permitan prevenir o diseñar estrategias para afrontarlas son escasas o inexistentes. El objetivo de esta investigación fue analizar la capacidad del producto satelital IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals) del satélite GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) y datos observados a partir de estaciones meteorológicas mediante un enfoque mixto para estimar la distribución de lluvias extremas en la región del Cusco ubicado al sur del Perú. Este enfoque mixto aprovechó las ventajas que ofrecen ambas fuentes de información como es la solidez de los datos observados a lo largo de varios años y la resolución temporal horaria del producto satelital. La metodología se basó en una curva de crecimiento de cada región homogénea, factor de corrección y parámetros que estiman la función intensidad y duración para toda la región Cusco. Los resultados se evaluaron mediante validación cruzada entre los valores de precipitación diaria obtenidos del producto IMERG, enfoque mixto y precipitación observada para periodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500 y 1 000 años. Los resultados sugieren que la combinación de datos observados de lluvia y del satélite IMERG puede ser una alternativa para estimar lluvias extremas en la región Cusco.

Ensuring global food security and adapting to the challenges posed by climate change, particularly in rainfed agriculture, are paramount concerns. This research investigates the impacts of climate change on the yield of the potato crop variety Imilla Negra (Solanum tuberosum spp.) under the extreme climatic conditions of the Peruvian Altiplano. From the experimentation in six crop plots under a rainfed agricultural system, periodic crop growth parameter measurements were obtained from 2017 to 2018. The results showed a good performance of the AquaCrop model in the calibration and validation, successfully simulating crop growth and yield parameters. Climate projections showed precipitation decreases and temperature and evapotranspiration increases for the representative concentration pathway (RCP), RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2023–2050. A comparison of crop yields between the base period (2006–2021) and the period 2023–2037 showed no significant changes, whereas a more considerable decrease was observed for the period 2038–2050. It is concluded that climate change generates moderate impacts on potato crop yields under the rainfed agricultural system in the Peruvian Altiplano due to the average reduction in precipitation.