Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

Die Analyse komplexer Probleme, unter anderem mittels Indikatoren, gehört zum Alltag der Technikfolgenabschätzung (TA). Indikatorenarbeit verdeutlicht, dass die Auswahl von Indikatoren, trotz genereller Regeln, auf akteursabhängigen Entscheidungen beruht. Die These des Artikels lautet, dass TA kontextneutralisierende wie kontextoffene Analysestrategien nutzt. Die Analyse von Indikatorenarbeit an einem Beispiel im Feld der Nachhaltigkeitsanalyse zeigt, wie die Spannung zwischen diesen beiden Analysestrategien in der Indikatorenarbeit durch Verfahrensregeln transparent zu machen ist. Normative Transparenz kann durch reflektierte Indikatorenarbeit in der TA sichergestellt werden.