Modeling insurance data using heavy-tailed distributions is of great interest for actuaries. Probability distributions present a description of risk exposure, where the level of exposure to the risk can be determined by “key risk indicators” that usually are functions of the model. Actuaries and risk managers often use such key risk indicators to determine the degree to which their companies are subject to particular aspects of risk, which arise from changes in underlying variables such as prices of equity, interest rates, or exchange rates. The present study proposes a new heavy-tailed exponential distribution that accommodates bathtub, upside-down bathtub, decreasing, decreasing-constant, and increasing hazard rates. Actuarial measures including value at risk, tail value at risk, tail variance, and tail variance premium are derived. A computational study for these actuarial measures is conducted, proving that the proposed distribution has a heavier tail as compared with the alpha power exponential, exponentiated exponential, and exponential distributions. We adopt six estimation approaches for estimating its parameters, and assess the performance of these estimators via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, an actuarial real data set is analyzed, proving that the proposed model can be used effectively to model insurance data as compared with fifteen competing distributions.

In this article, we extensively study a family of distributions using the trigonometric function. We add an extra parameter to the sine transformation family and name it the alpha-sine-G family of distributions. Some important functional forms and properties of the family are provided in a general form. A specific sub-model alpha-sine Weibull of this family is also introduced using the Weibull distribution as a parent distribution and studied deeply. The statistical properties of this new distribution are investigated and intended parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood, maximum product of spacings, least square, weighted least square, and minimum distance methods. For further justification of these estimates, a simulation experiment is carried out. Two real data sets are analyzed to show the suggested model’s application. The suggested model performed well compares to some existing models considered in the study.

This study presents the power Mira distribution, an innovative three-parameter probability model that improves baseline distributions by including an extra shaping parameter. The suggested distribution has exceptional adaptability in representing various data characteristics, such as left and right skewness, declining trends, and unimodal patterns. These characteristics render it exceptionally appropriate for modeling risk-related data, an essential component of actuarial science and insurance analytics. We do an extensive theoretical study, delineating essential statistical features and offering a robust framework for parameter estimation. Critical risk metrics, including value-at-risk and tail value-at-risk, are calculated and assessed using comprehensive numerical simulations, validating the precision and efficacy of the suggested estimators. We illustrate the practical value of the power Mira distribution by applying it to a real-world insurance loss dataset and comparing its performance with established models. The findings underscore its exceptional goodness-of-fit and flexibility, affirming its capability as an effective instrument for risk assessment and financial modeling.

This paper presents a novel probability distribution, namely the XLindley distribution, derived from a unique combination of exponential and gamma distributions through a special mixture formulation. The study extensively investigates the mathematical properties of the proposed distribution, including but not limited to the moment generation function, moments of different orders, mode identification, and the quantile function. Furthermore, the research employs a Monte Carlo simulation to assess and compare the performance of various estimators in estimating the unknown parameter of the XLindley distribution. These estimators are carefully evaluated and analyzed in terms of their efficiency and accuracy, providing valuable insights into the practical application of the new distribution in statistical modeling and data analysis contexts. The voltage and failure time data in the field of engineering are used to model the proposed distribution. The new model is compared with many current distributions such as Xlindley, gamma, Weibull, exponential, Lindley, Shanker, Akash, Zeghdoudi, Chris-Jerry, and Xgamma. Among all models, it is concluded that the new one-parameter distribution performed the best in modeling based on criteria such as the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and others. The real data results show that the proposed distribution exhibits greater flexibility and improved goodness of fit compared to alternative distributions. The new XLindley distribution could be useful in modeling real-life data and may warrant further exploration in future research. Overall, this study contributes to the field of probability distributions and provides new insights for statistical modeling.

Actuaries are interested in modeling actuarial data using loss models that can be adopted to describe risk exposure. This paper introduces a new flexible extension of the log-logistic distribution, called the extended log-logistic (Ex-LL) distribution, to model heavy-tailed insurance losses data. The Ex-LL hazard function exhibits an upside-down bathtub shape, an increasing shape, a J shape, a decreasing shape, and a reversed-J shape. We derived five important risk measures based on the Ex-LL distribution. The Ex-LL parameters were estimated using different estimation methods, and their performances were assessed using simulation results. Finally, the performance of the Ex-LL distribution was explored using two types of real data from the engineering and insurance sciences. The analyzed data illustrated that the Ex-LL distribution provided an adequate fit compared to other competing distributions such as the log-logistic, alpha-power log-logistic, transmuted log-logistic, generalized log-logistic, Marshall–Olkin log-logistic, inverse log-logistic, and Weibull generalized log-logistic distributions.

In this paper, we introduce a new flexible generator of continuous distributions called the transmuted Burr X-G (TBX-G) family to extend and increase the flexibility of the Burr X generator. The general statistical properties of the TBX-G family are calculated. One special sub-model, TBX-exponential distribution, is studied in detail. We discuss eight estimation approaches to estimating the TBX-exponential parameters, and numerical simulations are conducted to compare the suggested approaches based on partial and overall ranks. Based on our study, the Anderson–Darling estimators are recommended to estimate the TBX-exponential parameters. Using two skewed real data sets from the engineering sciences, we illustrate the importance and flexibility of the TBX-exponential model compared with other existing competing distributions.