Fire risk assessment should take into account the most relevant components associated to fire occurrence. To estimate when and where the fire will produce undesired effects, we need to model both (a) fire ignition and propagation potential and (b) fire vulnerability. Following these ideas, a comprehensive fire risk assessment system is proposed in this paper, which makes extensive use of geographic information technologies to offer a spatially explicit evaluation of fire risk conditions. The paper first describes the conceptual model, then the methods to generate the different input variables, the approaches to merge those variables into synthetic risk indices and finally the validation of the outputs. The model has been applied at a national level for the whole Spanish Iberian territory at 1-km2 spatial resolution. Fire danger included human factors, lightning probability, fuel moisture content of both dead and live fuels and propagation potential. Fire vulnerability was assessed by analysing values-at-risk and landscape resilience. Each input variable included a particular accuracy assessment, whereas the synthetic indices were validated using the most recent fire statistics available. Significant relations (P < 0.001) with fire occurrence were found for the main synthetic danger indices, particularly for those associated to fuel moisture content conditions.

Mediterranean forests are recurrently affected by fire. The recurrence of fire in such environments and the number and severity of previous fire events are directly related to fire risk. Fuel type classification is crucial for estimating ignition and fire propagation for sustainable forest management of these wildfire prone environments. The aim of this study is to classify fuel types according to Prometheus classification using low-density Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) data, Sentinel 2 data, and 136 field plots used as ground-truth. The study encompassed three different Mediterranean forests dominated by pines (Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster y P. nigra), oaks (Quercus ilex) and quercus (Q. faginea) in areas affected by wildfires in 1994 and their surroundings. Two metric selection approaches and two non-parametric classification methods with variants were compared to classify fuel types. The best-fitted classification model was obtained using Support Vector Machine method with radial kernel. The model includes three ALS and one Sentinel-2 metrics: the 25th percentile of returns height, the percentage of all returns above mean, rumple structural diversity index and NDVI. The overall accuracy of the model after validation was 59%. The combination of data from active and passive remote sensing sensors as well as the use of adapted structural diversity indices derived from ALS data improved accuracy classification. This approach demonstrates its value for mapping fuel type spatial patterns at a regional scale under different heterogeneous and topographically complex Mediterranean forests.