Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and spatial resolution is vital for the operation of the power grid. However, state-of-the-art approaches that combine machinelearning with numerical weather predictions (NWP) have coarse resolution. In this paper, we take a graph signal processing perspective and model multi-site photovoltaic (PV) production time series as signals on a graph to capture their spatio-temporal dependencies and achieve higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts. We present two novel graph neural network models for deterministic multi-site PV forecasting dubbed the graph-convolutional long short term memory (GCLSTM) and the graph-convolutional transformer (GCTrafo) models. These methods rely solely on production data and exploit the intuition that PV systems provide a dense network of virtual weather stations. The proposed methods were evaluated in two data sets for an entire year: 1) production data from 304 real PV systems, and 2) simulated production of 1000 PV systems, both distributed over Switzerland. The proposed models outperform state-of-the-art multi-site forecasting methods for prediction horizons of six hours ahead. Furthermore, the proposed models outperform state-of-the-art single-site methods with NWP as inputs on horizons up to four hours ahead.
We introduce the Python-based open-source library Energym, a building model library to test and benchmark building controllers. The incorporated building models are presented with a brief explanation of their function, location and technical equipment. Furthermore, the library structure is described, highlighting the necessary features to provide the benchmarking and control capabilities, i.e., standardized evaluation scenarios, key performance indicators (KPIs) and forecasts of uncertain variables. We go on to characterize the evaluation scenarios for each of the models and give formal definitions of the KPIs. We describe the calibration methodologies used for constructing the models and illustrate their usage through examples.
This is a survey of a novel approach, called “ETH approach”, to the quantum theory of events happening in isolated physical systems and to the effective time evolution of states of systems featuring events. In particular, we attempt to present a clear explanation of what is meant by an “event” in quantum mechanics and of the significance of this notion. We then outline a theory of direct (projective) and indirect observations or recordings of physical quantities and events. Some key ideas underlying our general theory are illustrated by studying a simple quantum-mechanical model of a mesoscopic system
The electricity sector foresees a significant change in the way energy is generated and distributed in the coming years. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, smart algorithms can determine the difference about how and when energy is produced or consumed by residential districts. However, managing and implementing energy demand response, in particular energy flexibility activations, in real case studies still presents issues to be solved. This study, within the framework of the European project “SABINA H2020”, addresses the development of a multi-level optimization algorithm that has been tested in a semi-virtual real-time configuration. Results from a two-day test show the potential of building’s flexibility and highlight its complexity. Results show how the first level algorithm goal to reduce the energy injected to the grid is accomplished as well as the energy consumption shift from nighttime to daytime hours. As conclusion, the study demonstrates the feasibility of such kind of configurations and puts the basis for real test site implementation.
Operating power systems with large amounts of renewables requires predicting future photovoltaic (PV) production with fine temporal and spatial resolution. State-of-the-art techniques combine numerical weather predictions with statistical post-processing, but their resolution is too coarse for applications such as local congestion management. In this paper we introduce computing methods for multi-site PV forecasting, which exploit the intuition that PV systems provide a dense network of simple weather stations. These methods rely entirely on production data and address the real-life challenges that come with them, such as noise and gaps. Our approach builds on graph signal processing for signal reconstruction and for forecasting with a linear, spatio-temporal autoregressive (ST-AR) model. It also introduces a data-driven clear-sky production estimation for normalization. The proposed framework was evaluated over one year on both 303 real PV systems under commercial monitoring across Switzerland, and 1000 simulated ones based on high-resolution weather data. The results demonstrate the performance and robustness of the approach: with gaps of four hours on average in the input data, the average daytime NRMSE over a six-hour forecasting horizon (in 15 min steps) and over all systems is 13.8% and 9% for the real and synthetic data sets, respectively.