Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines a well-established approach from transportation modelling that uses person-centric data-driven human mobility modelling with a mechanistic infection model and a person-centric disease progression model. The model includes the consequences of different room sizes, air exchange rates, disease import, changed activity participation rates over time (coming from mobility data), masks, indoors vs. outdoors leisure activities, and of contact tracing. It is validated against the infection dynamics in Berlin (Germany). The model can be used to understand the contributions of different activity types to the infection dynamics over time. It predicts the effects of contact reductions, school closures/vacations, masks, or the effect of moving leisure activities from outdoors to indoors in fall, and is thus able to quantitatively predict the consequences of interventions. It is shown that these effects are best given as additive changes of the reproduction number R. The model also explains why contact reductions have decreasing marginal returns, i.e. the first 50% of contact reductions have considerably more effect than the second 50%. Our work shows that is is possible to build detailed epidemiological simulations from microscopic mobility models relatively quickly. They can be used to investigate mechanical aspects of the dynamics, such as the transmission from political decisions via human behavior to infections, consequences of different lockdown measures, or consequences of wearing masks in certain situations. The results can be used to inform political decisions.

This paper presents a new methodology to derive and analyze strategies for a fully decarbonized urban transport system which combines conceptual vehicle design, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation, operational cost analysis, and life cycle assessment for a complete urban region. The holistic approach evaluates technical feasibility, system cost, energy demand, transportation time, and sustainability-related impacts of various decarbonization strategies. In contrast to previous work, the consequences of a transformation to fully decarbonized transport system scenarios are quantified across all traffic segments, considering procurement, operation, and disposal. The methodology can be applied to arbitrary regions and transport systems. Here, the metropolitan region of Berlin is chosen as a demonstration case. The first results are shown for a complete conversion of all traffic segments from conventional propulsion technology to battery electric vehicles. The transition of private individual traffic is analyzed regarding technical feasibility, energy demand and environmental impact. Commercial goods, municipal traffic and public transport are analyzed with respect to system cost and environmental impacts. We can show a feasible transition path for all cases with substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current technologies and today’s cost structures our simulation shows a moderate increase in total systems cost of 13–18%.

Electrification is a potential solution for transport decarbonization and already widely available for individual and public transport. However, the availability of electrified commercial vehicles like waste collection vehicles is still limited, despite their significant contribution to urban emissions. Moreover, there is a lack of clarity whether electric waste collection vehicles can persist in real world conditions and which system design is required. Therefore, we introduce a multi-agent-based simulation methodology to investigate the technical feasibility and evaluate environmental and economic sustainability of an electrified urban waste collection. We present a synthetic model for waste collection demand on a per-link basis, using open available data. The tour planning is solved by an open-source algorithm as a capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). This generates plausible tours which handle the demand. The generated tours are simulated with an open-source transport simulation (MATSim) for both the diesel and the electric waste collection vehicles. To compare the life cycle costs, we analyze the data using total cost of ownership (TCO). Environmental impacts are evaluated based on a Well-to-Wheel approach. We present a comparison of the two propulsion types for the exemplary use case of Berlin. And we are able to generate a suitable planning to handle Berlin’s waste collection demand using battery electric vehicles only. The TCO calculation reveals that the electrification raises the total operator cost by 16–30%, depending on the scenario and the battery size with conservative assumptions. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) can be reduced by 60–99%, depending on the carbon footprint of electric power generation.

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility modelling with a mechanistic infection model and a person-centric disease progression model. Results show that in Berlin (Germany), behavioral changes of the population mostly happened before the government-initiated so-called contact ban came into effect. Also, the model is used to determine differentiated changes to the reinfection rate for different interventions such as reductions in activity participation, the wearing of masks, or contact tracing followed by quarantine-at-home. One important result is that successful contact tracing reduces the reinfection rate by about 30 to 40%, and that if contact tracing becomes overwhelmed then infection rates immediately jump up accordingly, making rather strong lockdown measures necessary to bring the reinfection rate back to below one.

This study conducts a detailed analysis of population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing a unique approach that contrasts two types of mobile phone data: GPS-based and cell-based. The primary objective is to evaluate the effects of governmental restrictions on a variety of activities including school attendance, work, shopping, and leisure. We compare both data sets by using a set of defined criteria, including anticipated activity reductions during full and partial closures, as well as the timing of activity changes in response to policy implementations. Our research reveals that while cell-based data lacks the precision to differentiate between various out-of-home activities effectively, GPS-based data, especially when integrated with OpenStreetMap, proves significantly more adept at identifying and categorizing specific activity types. The GPS-based data shows, for example, that school activities fell by more than 80% while work activities were only reduced by around 50%.

Background: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods: We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results: By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions: We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability: All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss