This paper presents a new methodology to derive and analyze strategies for a fully decarbonized urban transport system which combines conceptual vehicle design, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation, operational cost analysis, and life cycle assessment for a complete urban region. The holistic approach evaluates technical feasibility, system cost, energy demand, transportation time, and sustainability-related impacts of various decarbonization strategies. In contrast to previous work, the consequences of a transformation to fully decarbonized transport system scenarios are quantified across all traffic segments, considering procurement, operation, and disposal. The methodology can be applied to arbitrary regions and transport systems. Here, the metropolitan region of Berlin is chosen as a demonstration case. The first results are shown for a complete conversion of all traffic segments from conventional propulsion technology to battery electric vehicles. The transition of private individual traffic is analyzed regarding technical feasibility, energy demand and environmental impact. Commercial goods, municipal traffic and public transport are analyzed with respect to system cost and environmental impacts. We can show a feasible transition path for all cases with substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current technologies and today’s cost structures our simulation shows a moderate increase in total systems cost of 13–18%.

The option of decarbonizing urban freight transport using battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems promising. However, there is currently a strong debate whether fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) might be the better solution. The question arises as to how a fleet of FCEV influences the operating cost, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and primary energy demand in comparison to BEVs and to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). To investigate this, we simulate the urban food retailing as a representative share of urban freight transport using a multi-agent transport simulation software. Synthetic routes as well as fleet size and composition are determined by solving a vehicle routing problem. We compute the operating costs using a total cost of ownership analysis and the use phase emissions as well as primary energy demand using the well to wheel approach. While a change to BEV results in 17–23% higher costs compared to ICEV, using FCEVs leads to 22–57% higher costs. Assuming today’s electricity mix, we show a GHG emission reduction of 25% compared to the ICEV base case when using BEV. Current hydrogen production leads to a GHG reduction of 33% when using FCEV which however cannot be scaled to larger fleets. Using current electricity in electrolysis will increase GHG emission by 60% compared to the base case. Assuming 100% renewable electricity for charging and hydrogen production, the reduction from FCEVs rises to 73% and from BEV to 92%. The primary energy requirement for BEV is in all cases lower and for higher compared to the base case. We conclude that while FCEV have a slightly higher GHG savings potential with current hydrogen, BEV are the favored technology for urban freight transport from an economic and ecological point of view, considering the increasing shares of renewable energies in the grid mix.

Electrification is a potential solution for transport decarbonization and already widely available for individual and public transport. However, the availability of electrified commercial vehicles like waste collection vehicles is still limited, despite their significant contribution to urban emissions. Moreover, there is a lack of clarity whether electric waste collection vehicles can persist in real world conditions and which system design is required. Therefore, we introduce a multi-agent-based simulation methodology to investigate the technical feasibility and evaluate environmental and economic sustainability of an electrified urban waste collection. We present a synthetic model for waste collection demand on a per-link basis, using open available data. The tour planning is solved by an open-source algorithm as a capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). This generates plausible tours which handle the demand. The generated tours are simulated with an open-source transport simulation (MATSim) for both the diesel and the electric waste collection vehicles. To compare the life cycle costs, we analyze the data using total cost of ownership (TCO). Environmental impacts are evaluated based on a Well-to-Wheel approach. We present a comparison of the two propulsion types for the exemplary use case of Berlin. And we are able to generate a suitable planning to handle Berlin’s waste collection demand using battery electric vehicles only. The TCO calculation reveals that the electrification raises the total operator cost by 16–30%, depending on the scenario and the battery size with conservative assumptions. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) can be reduced by 60–99%, depending on the carbon footprint of electric power generation.

This paper presents a new methodology to derive and analyze strategies for a fully decarbonized urban transport system which combines conceptual vehicle design, a large-scale agent-based transport simulation, operational cost analysis, and life cycle assessment for a complete urban region. The holistic approach evaluates technical feasibility, system cost, energy demand, transportation time and sustainability-related impacts of various decarbonization strategies. In contrast to previous work, the consequences of a transformation to fully decarbonized transport system scenarios are quantified across all traffic segments, considering procurement, operation and disposal. The methodology can be applied to arbitrary regions and transport systems. Here, the metropolitan region of Berlin is chosen as a demonstration case. First results are shown for a complete conversion of all traffic segments from conventional propulsion technology to battery electric vehicles. The transition of private individual traffic is analyzed regarding technical feasibility, energy demand and environmental impact. Commercial goods, municipal traffic and public transport are analyzed with respect to system cost and environmental impacts. We can show a feasible transition path for all cases with substantially lower greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current technologies and today’s cost structures our simulation shows a moderate increase in total systems cost of 13-18%.