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The main aim of this paper is to design and test new software application to support experts involved in decision-making in the field of energy security. The prototype named ESecFuzzy is designed for this purpose. It implements various fuzzy concepts (fuzzy rules, fuzzified input data, fuzzy variables utilized by fuzzy terms and related fuzzy sets) chosen to obtain reasoning in case of unclear, uncertain or even incomplete input data for reaching a conclusion about them. The research was conducted on a sample of 28 European Union countries over a ten-year period (2008–2017). The research outcomes are as follows: (a) ESecFuzzy application for energy security measurement was developed; (b) application testing; (c) measuring energy security on a given sample, and (d) evaluation of the accuracy and acceptability of fuzzy logic as an approach for energy security quantification. ESecFuzzy provides the experimenting with different input data (time series intersected with geospatial data) as well as fine-tuning of fuzzy rules in knowledge base. Through the evaluation and experimenting process, ESecFuzzy application demonstrated the advantage of fuzzy logic by obtaining the derived information based on mass of heterogeneous data organized in time series that indicate general trends in the target application domain.
Goran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Olga Mirković Isaeva. Fuzzy logic approach in energy security decision-making: “ESecFuzzy” software application. Soft Computing 2021, 1 -16.
AMA StyleGoran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Olga Mirković Isaeva. Fuzzy logic approach in energy security decision-making: “ESecFuzzy” software application. Soft Computing. 2021; ():1-16.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGoran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Olga Mirković Isaeva. 2021. "Fuzzy logic approach in energy security decision-making: “ESecFuzzy” software application." Soft Computing , no. : 1-16.
The purpose of this study is to research the antecedents of the sustainable travel decision-making of European travelers and thereby identify important lessons for the transition towards sustainable travel and tourism. The study is based on data collected through a representative survey, conducted in five European countries, with a sample of n = 5024 respondents. The results of descriptive statistics, EFA (Exploratory Factor Analysis) and FA (Factor Analysis) are presented in order to explore sustainable travel decision-making through environmental (policy-related and personal) attitudes and travel mode decision priorities in the European context. Furthermore, the study provides new evidence regarding the under-researched phenomenon of the attitude–behavior gap by presenting a model for the sustainability-oriented decision-making of travelers, including attitudes and travel mode priorities as antecedents. The results confirm the existence of moral licensing in travel decision-making, thereby extending the relevance of this theory into travel and tourism, which has not been done before. The denial of environmental issues is also being researched as regards its interaction with positive environmental attitudes, environmental travel mode priorities and non-environmental travel priorities, thereby advancing our understanding of the interplay between these categories. The interplay between the four categories furthers our understanding of the perplexity of travelers in terms of sustainable travel decision-making.
Tatjana Mamula Nikolić; Sanja Pantić; Ivan Paunović; Sanja Filipović. Sustainable Travel Decision-Making of Europeans: Insights from a Household Survey. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1960 .
AMA StyleTatjana Mamula Nikolić, Sanja Pantić, Ivan Paunović, Sanja Filipović. Sustainable Travel Decision-Making of Europeans: Insights from a Household Survey. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):1960.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTatjana Mamula Nikolić; Sanja Pantić; Ivan Paunović; Sanja Filipović. 2021. "Sustainable Travel Decision-Making of Europeans: Insights from a Household Survey." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 1960.
The aim of this research was to identify energy saving instructions effect on household’s electricity consumption. The research was conducted using Randomized Control Trials, which implied defining a treatment and control group on a sample of 330 households. The research was carried out in Republic of Serbia, where electricity prices are the lowest in Europe and electricity is used inefficiently. For quantitative analysis of data, the Difference in Difference method was used, which compares the changes in electricity consumption over time between the treatment and control group and estimates the overall impact of the energy saving instructions. The research showed that in situations where electricity price is very low, energy saving information does not have the significant impact on change in consumer behavior. However, inefficient use of electricity might be due to the different efficiency of heating devices used. Not only that the low impact of information on energy saving habits may be a consequence of the low will to change habit, but also of the impossibility to change the habit (unless changing the heating device, but this implies expenditures). Results can be used for consideration of changes in organization and regulation of the electricity market in all South Eastern European countries (SEE).
Iztok Podbregar; Sanja Filipović; Mirjana Radovanović; Olga Mirković Isaeva; Polona Šprajc. Electricity Prices and Consumer Behavior, Case Study Serbia—Randomized Control Trials Method. Energies 2021, 14, 591 .
AMA StyleIztok Podbregar, Sanja Filipović, Mirjana Radovanović, Olga Mirković Isaeva, Polona Šprajc. Electricity Prices and Consumer Behavior, Case Study Serbia—Randomized Control Trials Method. Energies. 2021; 14 (3):591.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIztok Podbregar; Sanja Filipović; Mirjana Radovanović; Olga Mirković Isaeva; Polona Šprajc. 2021. "Electricity Prices and Consumer Behavior, Case Study Serbia—Randomized Control Trials Method." Energies 14, no. 3: 591.
The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.
Iztok Podbregar; Goran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Damjan Maletič; Polona Šprajc. The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis. Energies 2020, 13, 3691 .
AMA StyleIztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Damjan Maletič, Polona Šprajc. The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis. Energies. 2020; 13 (14):3691.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIztok Podbregar; Goran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Damjan Maletič; Polona Šprajc. 2020. "The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making—A Reliability Analysis." Energies 13, no. 14: 3691.
The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).
Iztok Podbregar; Goran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Polona Šprajc. International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings. Energies 2020, 13, 3234 .
AMA StyleIztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Polona Šprajc. International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings. Energies. 2020; 13 (12):3234.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIztok Podbregar; Goran Šimić; Mirjana Radovanović; Sanja Filipović; Polona Šprajc. 2020. "International Energy Security Risk Index—Analysis of the Methodological Settings." Energies 13, no. 12: 3234.