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The National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration developed a statistical–dynamical typhoon intensity prediction model for the western North Pacific, the CSTIPS-DAT, using a track-pattern clustering technique. The model led to significant improvements in the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, relatively large errors have been found in a cluster located in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), mainly because of the large predictand variance. In this study, a decision-tree algorithm was employed to reduce the predictand variance for TCs in the TWNP. The tree predicts the likelihood of a TC reaching a maximum lifetime intensity greater than 70 knots at its genesis. The developed four rules suggest that the pre-existing ocean thermal structures along the track and the latitude of a TC’s position play significant roles in the determination of its intensity. The developed decision-tree classification exhibited 90.0% and 80.5% accuracy in the training and test periods, respectively. These results suggest that intensity prediction with the CSTIPS-DAT can be further improved by developing independent statistical models for TC groups classified by the present algorithm.
Sung-Hun Kim; Il-Ju Moon; Seong-Hee Won; Hyoun-Woo Kang; Sok Kang. Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 802 .
AMA StyleSung-Hun Kim, Il-Ju Moon, Seong-Hee Won, Hyoun-Woo Kang, Sok Kang. Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (7):802.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSung-Hun Kim; Il-Ju Moon; Seong-Hee Won; Hyoun-Woo Kang; Sok Kang. 2021. "Decision-Tree-Based Classification of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific." Atmosphere 12, no. 7: 802.
Woojeong Lee; Sung‐Hun Kim; Pao‐Shin Chu; Il‐Ju Moon; Alexander V. Soloviev. An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 2019, 46, 8960 -8968.
AMA StyleWoojeong Lee, Sung‐Hun Kim, Pao‐Shin Chu, Il‐Ju Moon, Alexander V. Soloviev. An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters. 2019; 46 (15):8960-8968.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWoojeong Lee; Sung‐Hun Kim; Pao‐Shin Chu; Il‐Ju Moon; Alexander V. Soloviev. 2019. "An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific." Geophysical Research Letters 46, no. 15: 8960-8968.