Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which traversed the North Equatorial Current (NEC; 8–17 °N) in the western North Pacific in 2018, was the most intense Category-5 tropical cyclone (TC) with the longest duration in history—3.5 days. Here we show that the combination of two factors—high ocean heat content (OHC) and increased stratification — makes the NEC region the most favored area for a rapid intensification (RI) of super typhoons, instead of the Eddy Rich Zone (17–25 °N), which was considered the most relevant for RI occurrence. The high OHC results from a northward deepening thermocline in geostrophic balance with the westward-flowing NEC. The stratification is derived from precipitation associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the summer peak typhoon season. These factors, which are increasingly significant over the past four decades, impede the TC-induced sea surface cooling, thus enhancing RI of TCs and simultaneously maintaining super typhoons over the NEC region.

The National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteorological Administration developed a statistical–dynamical typhoon intensity prediction model for the western North Pacific, the CSTIPS-DAT, using a track-pattern clustering technique. The model led to significant improvements in the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, relatively large errors have been found in a cluster located in the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP), mainly because of the large predictand variance. In this study, a decision-tree algorithm was employed to reduce the predictand variance for TCs in the TWNP. The tree predicts the likelihood of a TC reaching a maximum lifetime intensity greater than 70 knots at its genesis. The developed four rules suggest that the pre-existing ocean thermal structures along the track and the latitude of a TC’s position play significant roles in the determination of its intensity. The developed decision-tree classification exhibited 90.0% and 80.5% accuracy in the training and test periods, respectively. These results suggest that intensity prediction with the CSTIPS-DAT can be further improved by developing independent statistical models for TC groups classified by the present algorithm.

Trajectories of Argo floats deployed in the East/Japan Sea from 2001 to 2014 reveal that the middepth gyral circulation pattern of the Japan basin, the central part of the East/Japan Sea, undergoes a seasonal variation. The middepth circulation of the Japan basin is found to be characterized usually by the gyres trapped to the east of the Bogorov Rise (E-gyres) and those extending farther westward into the whole basin (BW-gyres). The E-gyre trajectories are generally associated with the turning of the floats toward deeper regions off the isobaths. This occurs in winter either on the northern or eastern side of the eastern Japan basin. It seems that the upstream part of the otherwise BW-gyre is subject to a strong negative wind stress curl in winter, and there the circulating water columns are driven toward the deeper region, thus triggering the formation of the E-gyre. The topographic effect associated with the Bogorov Rise seems to interfere thereafter in the process of determining the passage of the E-gyre. Otherwise, the water columns continue to flow along the isobaths, hence maintaining the BW-gyre. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first observational evidence of seasonal variability in the middepth gyral circulation pattern in the East/Japan Sea. It suggests that oceanic middepth circulation, usually known to be quasi steady or slowly varying on climatological time scales, might also undergo a significant seasonal variation as it does in the East/Japan Sea.

Tropical cyclones (TC), which are among the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth, have significant impacts on the western boundary current (WBC). We quantify the direct impact of TCs on the surface geostrophic velocity of the Kuroshio, the WBC in the western North Pacific, by analyzing satellite‐derived geostrophic current data and using results from theoretical and numerical models. The study reveals that TCs decrease the surface geostrophic velocity by 14 cm s⁻¹ which is 16% of the mean velocity of the Kuroshio (85 cm s⁻¹), with the reduced velocity maintained for a month. The decrease in velocity of the Kuroshio is mainly (87%) due to the effect of TC‐driven upwelling (“Cooling effect”), the effect of ocean heat uptake after the TC (“Warming effect”) being minor (13%); these are basically enabled by the strong thermal gradient around the Kuroshio.

This study investigates the impact of warm core eddies (WCEs) on the ocean response and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northwest Pacific, focusing on three typhoons in 2018: Jebi, Trami, and Kong-rey. The research uses the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model coupled with the MPIPOM-TC ocean model. Idealized WCEs are embedded into the ocean model ahead of each TC. The impacts of WCEs are evaluated by comparing simulations with and without their presence. Uncoupled experiments with the fixed sea surface temperature (SST) serve as a reference for TC maximum potential intensity. To quantitatively assess the impact of WCEs on the SST, enthalpy fluxes, and TC intensity, a Maximum WCE Potential Index (MWPI) is introduced. Our findings indicate that for a WCE with a 200 km radius, the potential to reduce SST cooling ranges from 34 to 37%, while the potential to increase enthalpy fluxes varies between 25 and 39%. The influence of WCEs on TC intensity, as measured by minimum pressure, shows a larger variation from 27% to 48%, depending on the oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions in each storm. Additional experiments reveal the sensitivity of the MWPI to WCE size, with TC Trami showing less sensitivity due to its slower translational speed. This study underscores the significant role of oceanic thermal conditions, particularly WCEs, in modulating TC intensity.