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Senior Research Fellow at Griffith University
Understanding the residential adoption decision of battery energy storage systems (BESSs) is central to the implementation of successful intervention policies. However, when the residential solar photovoltaics (PV) becomes a widely accepted technology across a society, accurately modelling the behaviour shows a higher degree of complexity. In this vein, the uptake pathway of BESS and PV coupled with BESS (PV–BESS) would predictably exhibit similar attitudinal traits to that of PV consumption. This notion implies that the antecedent PV decision can be regarded as the past behaviour of the BESS adopter by creating attitudinal implications. The PV use status also yields a higher degree of heterogeneity through the emergence of four new household groups and the inherent imbalances in the involvement of the interwoven financial, technical, sociodemographic, and psychological predictors. This perspective employs the Reasoned Action Approach (RAA) to allegorise a decision-making model of BESS and PV–BESS adoption behaviour in a mature PV market (Australia). It argues that the particularised background factors will likely shape the individual’s attitudes and perceived norms for intention, and showcases affordability and the use of PV as the two control components that dictate the final decision.
Mohammad Alipour; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. Beyond the Diffusion of Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems at Scale: Allegorising the Battery Energy Storage Adoption Behaviour. Energies 2021, 14, 5015 .
AMA StyleMohammad Alipour, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin. Beyond the Diffusion of Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems at Scale: Allegorising the Battery Energy Storage Adoption Behaviour. Energies. 2021; 14 (16):5015.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammad Alipour; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. 2021. "Beyond the Diffusion of Residential Solar Photovoltaic Systems at Scale: Allegorising the Battery Energy Storage Adoption Behaviour." Energies 14, no. 16: 5015.
There has been an increasing interest among scholars regarding the impacts of climate change on agriculture and possible adaptation strategies for farmers. Little attention has been paid, however, to reviewing adaptation initiatives amongst farmers in Asia. This article fills this knowledge gap by examining the current literature on Asian farmers’ perception of climate change, their adaptation strategies, key factors influencing their choices, and the barriers to change. A systematic quantitative literature review is undertaken of 48 papers taken from a range of sources. The review indicates that farmers’ perceptions of climate change have been consistent with the scientific data. It further identifies farmers’ adaptation strategies with regards to soil conservation, water management and land use changes. The review shows numerous factors influencing, and barriers impacting, farmers’ ability to adapt. Influencing factors were analysed and categorised into five groups: cognitive, demographic, social-economic, resources, and institutional. Barriers hampering their adaptive capacity were identified as: a lack of access to information, a lack of access to extension services, limited awareness and knowledge, and limited financial options. The review finishes with some recommendations for future research.
Thu-Huong Nguyen; Oz Sahin; Michael Howes. Climate Change Adaptation Influences and Barriers Impacting the Asian Agricultural Industry. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7346 .
AMA StyleThu-Huong Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Michael Howes. Climate Change Adaptation Influences and Barriers Impacting the Asian Agricultural Industry. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (13):7346.
Chicago/Turabian StyleThu-Huong Nguyen; Oz Sahin; Michael Howes. 2021. "Climate Change Adaptation Influences and Barriers Impacting the Asian Agricultural Industry." Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7346.
The benefits provided by a model of system dynamics are directly related to its correct construction. One of the main challenges in the process of building such models is that they must be able to effectively represent a specific problematic situation. Thus, the main objective of this study is to develop a multi-methodological approach, adapting the problem structuring method of strategic options development and analysis (SODA) in the initial stage of the system dynamics (SD) model. The role of each of them clearly represents the contribution of this study: the SODA in the structuring (representation) phase of the problem and proposition of alternatives and the SD in the evaluation phase of these alternatives. To illustrate its application, the multimethodological approach developed was used to simulate scenarios considering management strategies, and the various variables affecting a water supply system, including population growth, in order to evaluate more “assertive” water management strategy(s) that could have been adopted to address the water crisis (2012–2017) and analysis future scenarios. The results show that, based on the vision of specialists with enough experience for the case studied, it was possible to structure the problem, and therefore propose a set of strategies (alternatives), which were: water loss control, wastewater reuse, application of more efficient tariffs to reduce water waste, inter-basin water transfer, and awareness regarding the use of water resources. After the survey of alternatives, scenarios were simulated considering these water management strategies. Simulation results showed that actions taken on the demand side would only be effective for a short period of water scarcity, (for example, the impact of the scarcity-based tariff on water consumption reduction). For severe drought scenarios and with a water producing system heavily dependent on rainfall, such action would no longer be efficient. However, water supply management-oriented strategies, e.g., inter-basin water transfers (PISF) and wastewater reuse, are highly effective in securing water supply and preventing water supply collapse in the region. The development of this multi-methodological approach is expected to be useful to support managers in the decision-making and implementation of water management strategies.
Wanderbeg de Araujo; Karla Oliveira-Esquerre; Oz Sahin. Development of a Multi-Methodological Approach to Support the Management of Water Supply Systems. Water 2021, 13, 1655 .
AMA StyleWanderbeg de Araujo, Karla Oliveira-Esquerre, Oz Sahin. Development of a Multi-Methodological Approach to Support the Management of Water Supply Systems. Water. 2021; 13 (12):1655.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWanderbeg de Araujo; Karla Oliveira-Esquerre; Oz Sahin. 2021. "Development of a Multi-Methodological Approach to Support the Management of Water Supply Systems." Water 13, no. 12: 1655.
Business cases often strain to identify enough benefits to cover costs of digital water metering (DWM), consisting of advanced metering infrastructure and data analytics. An Australian study in 2020 identified 77 benefits of DWM, potentially generating cost savings and customer satisfaction improvements. Modeling software makes projections of monetary savings over the DWM project life cycle and considers customer satisfaction improvements linked to DWM deployment. Leasing meters may provide lower entry costs, shifting risks to the supplier and avoiding lock-in of today's technology for long periods to achieve acceptable returns on investment.
Ian Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert Keller. Building Compelling Business Cases for Digital Water Metering. Journal AWWA 2021, 113, 64 -75.
AMA StyleIan Monks, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin, Robert Keller. Building Compelling Business Cases for Digital Water Metering. Journal AWWA. 2021; 113 (5):64-75.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIan Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert Keller. 2021. "Building Compelling Business Cases for Digital Water Metering." Journal AWWA 113, no. 5: 64-75.
Water security is an issue across the world as communities face ageing infrastructure, population increases and climate change. The application of digital water metering (DWM) to properties has had a demonstrable impact on water savings at the property and network levels, on efficiencies within water utilities, as well as on improvements to customer satisfaction scores. Gathering and processing near-real-time water usage data is very important for both end-users and utilities, as well as demand and supply management planning. The potential contribution of DWM to the three pillars of water sustainability (environmental, economic development and social equity) is often overlooked. In Australia and other jurisdictions water utilities are facing up to the challenge of climate change. However, business cases promoting DWM are often unsuccessful because the benefit side falls short of the cost side. This study sought to identify possible DWM benefits not previously considered through an extensive review of academic and industry literature, and then to view those benefits through the lens of sustainability. The 77 identified benefits of DWM were catalogued and a taxonomy was created. The study elicited the opinions of experts, before quantifying them, thus identifying two distinct contexts of benefit value; subsequently, it surveyed the views of customers and developed a stochastic model of benefit value. The model, named DWM360, was applied to the project data of a large metropolitan water utility in Australia to model their DWM proposal for cost savings, contribution to sustainability and uplift in customer satisfaction. This paper presents a novel focus on how the benefits of DWM assist water sustainability. It considers differing social norms that impact consumer acceptance of changes in metering and water charges. The study will be of interest to researchers as well as practitioners looking to identify sustainability aspects of DWM.
Ian Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert J. Keller. Taxonomy and model for valuing the contribution of digital water meters to sustainability objectives. Journal of Environmental Management 2021, 293, 112846 .
AMA StyleIan Monks, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin, Robert J. Keller. Taxonomy and model for valuing the contribution of digital water meters to sustainability objectives. Journal of Environmental Management. 2021; 293 ():112846.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIan Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert J. Keller. 2021. "Taxonomy and model for valuing the contribution of digital water meters to sustainability objectives." Journal of Environmental Management 293, no. : 112846.
As rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Australia is exponentially growing in the past decade, there is a need to promote effective product stewardship for PV panels reaching their end-of-life (EoL). This paper presents the development of a System Dynamics (SD) model for managing EoL rooftop PV panels based on the circular economy concept. Four stages of the SD modelling process include problem scoping and variable identification, model conceptualisation, SD model development, and scenario analysis. Stakeholder engagement is central to this research as the system under study is underpinned by high uncertainties and limited data availability. Four socio-technical transition pathways examined in this study include market-driven growth, conservative development, shared responsibility, and disruptive change. The simulation results indicated an improvement of collection and recovery performance when a stringent product stewardship scheme is enabled and improvement of installers’ participation in the collection program. This study argued that a system of shared responsibility will be capable of balancing techno-economic motivations of stakeholders across the supply chain to participate in the recovery scheme, while being less disruptive to PV adoption. Under this scenario, a gradual change in regulatory requirements (e.g. recovery target and material recovery rate requirements) is introduced to allow a period of industry and market development.
Hengky K. Salim; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Michael Dudley. Dynamic modelling of Australian rooftop solar photovoltaic product stewardship transition. Waste Management 2021, 127, 18 -29.
AMA StyleHengky K. Salim, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin, Michael Dudley. Dynamic modelling of Australian rooftop solar photovoltaic product stewardship transition. Waste Management. 2021; 127 ():18-29.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHengky K. Salim; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Michael Dudley. 2021. "Dynamic modelling of Australian rooftop solar photovoltaic product stewardship transition." Waste Management 127, no. : 18-29.
In recent years, titanium dioxide (TiO2) has increasingly been used as an inorganic ultraviolet (UV) filter for sun protection. However, nano-TiO2 may also pose risks to the health of humans and the environment. Thus, to adequately assess its potential adverse effects, a comprehensive understanding of the behaviour and fate of TiO2 in different environments is crucial. Advances in analytical and modelling methods continue to improve researchers’ ability to quantify and determine the state of nano-TiO2 in various environments. However, due to the complexity of environmental and nanoparticle factors and their interplay, this remains a challenging and poorly resolved feat. This paper aims to provide a focused summary of key particle and environmental characteristics that influence the behaviour and fate of sunscreen-derived TiO2 in swimming pool water and natural aquatic environments and to review the current state-of-the-art of single particle inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (SP-ICP-MS) approaches to detect and characterise TiO2 nanoparticles in aqueous media. Furthermore, it critically analyses the capability of existing fate and transport models to predict environmental TiO2 levels. Four particle and environmental key factors that govern the fate and behaviour of TiO2 in aqueous environments are identified. A comparison of SP-ICP-MS studies reveals that it remains challenging to detect and characterise engineered TiO2 nanoparticles in various matrices and highlights the need for the development of new SP-ICP-MS pre-treatment and analysis approaches. This review shows that modelling studies are an essential addition to experimental studies, but they still lack in spatial and temporal resolution and mostly exclude surface transformation processes. Finally, this study identifies the use of Bayesian Network-based models as an underexplored but promising modelling tool to overcome data uncertainties and incorporates interconnected variables.
Simone Heilgeist; Ryo Sekine; Oz Sahin; Rodney Stewart. Finding Nano: Challenges Involved in Monitoring the Presence and Fate of Engineered Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles in Aquatic Environments. Water 2021, 13, 734 .
AMA StyleSimone Heilgeist, Ryo Sekine, Oz Sahin, Rodney Stewart. Finding Nano: Challenges Involved in Monitoring the Presence and Fate of Engineered Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles in Aquatic Environments. Water. 2021; 13 (5):734.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSimone Heilgeist; Ryo Sekine; Oz Sahin; Rodney Stewart. 2021. "Finding Nano: Challenges Involved in Monitoring the Presence and Fate of Engineered Titanium Dioxide Nanoparticles in Aquatic Environments." Water 13, no. 5: 734.
Wanderbeg Correia De Araujo; Karla Patricia O. Esquerre; Oz Sahin; Brenner Biasi S. Silva. Scarcity Pricing for Water Demand Management: A Case Study in Campina Grande -- Brazil. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management 2021, 9, 75 -91.
AMA StyleWanderbeg Correia De Araujo, Karla Patricia O. Esquerre, Oz Sahin, Brenner Biasi S. Silva. Scarcity Pricing for Water Demand Management: A Case Study in Campina Grande -- Brazil. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management. 2021; 9 (1):75-91.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWanderbeg Correia De Araujo; Karla Patricia O. Esquerre; Oz Sahin; Brenner Biasi S. Silva. 2021. "Scarcity Pricing for Water Demand Management: A Case Study in Campina Grande -- Brazil." Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management 9, no. 1: 75-91.
Previous research regarding PhD students’ well-being (PhD-WB) has lacked a comprehensive and systemic analysis. This research engages with a systems approach to examine the multiple variables, including feedback mechanisms, which influence PhD-WB over time. The model was developed using a structural analysis method (Cross-impact analysis MICMAC) that informed a causal loop diagram (CLD). The aim was to understand what promotes (drivers) and inhibits (barriers) PhD students’ well-being. The results show that PhD students’ well-being reflects an interplay between university, financial support, students’ mental and physical health, and family/friends. However, the analysis shows that the role of the drivers is dynamic, and they can become barriers in certain circumstances. This insight validates the application of systems thinking to illustrate the complexity of PhD students’ well-being.
Nina Dhirasasna; Emiliya Suprun; Stefen MacAskill; Mehdi Hafezi; Oz Sahin. A Systems Approach to Examining PhD Students’ Well-Being: An Australian Case. Systems 2021, 9, 17 .
AMA StyleNina Dhirasasna, Emiliya Suprun, Stefen MacAskill, Mehdi Hafezi, Oz Sahin. A Systems Approach to Examining PhD Students’ Well-Being: An Australian Case. Systems. 2021; 9 (1):17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNina Dhirasasna; Emiliya Suprun; Stefen MacAskill; Mehdi Hafezi; Oz Sahin. 2021. "A Systems Approach to Examining PhD Students’ Well-Being: An Australian Case." Systems 9, no. 1: 17.
Coral reef ecosystems provide a broad spectrum of essential ecological, economic and cultural services for Small Island Developing State (SIDS) communities. However, coral reef communities are increasingly threatened by the adverse impacts of human activities at both global and local scales. This study aims to develop an integrated dynamic assessment framework to evaluate coral reef conditions under different adaptation and climate change scenarios, and their consequential economic impacts in the small island community of Port Resolution on Tanna Island in Vanuatu. Our assessment framework follows a sequential multilayered modelling approach that uses System Dynamics (SD) coupled with Bayesian Network (BN) modelling to deal with the complexity and dynamicity of socioeconomic and environmental systems, and impacts from trans-discipline variables. The BN incorporated existing data and expert knowledge to project the future conditions of coral reefs under different scenario settings, and to parametrise and quantify the SD model where the existing data and information was insufficient. The SD was then used to simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef condition and the economic benefits derived from its ecosystem services under different climate change (i.e. RCPs) and management scenarios through to 2070. Our findings show that sustainable community-based conservation management strategies are key to preserving the flow of coral reef ecosystem services under RCP 2.6 and 6.0. Importantly, we demonstrate that the implementation of an integrated portfolio of management strategies better protects ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and maximises the total economic benefits achieved over the long-term despite a temporary and short-term economic loss due to high initial capital investments and income reduction due to fishing and tourism restrictions.
Mehdi Hafezi; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Alyssa L. Giffin; Brendan Mackey. Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system dynamics. Journal of Environmental Management 2021, 285, 112082 .
AMA StyleMehdi Hafezi, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin, Alyssa L. Giffin, Brendan Mackey. Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system dynamics. Journal of Environmental Management. 2021; 285 ():112082.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehdi Hafezi; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Alyssa L. Giffin; Brendan Mackey. 2021. "Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system dynamics." Journal of Environmental Management 285, no. : 112082.
The effectiveness of deployment policies to promote the uptake of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic systems ultimately hinges on the behaviour of households who decide to accept or reject the technology. Over the past years, research has strived to understand, designate significant predictors, model the behaviour of heterogeneous households, and predict the diffusion rate by putting a wide range of approaches in place. Inspired by compiling a comprehensive database of home solar adoption studies, the present study systematically reviews the adopted theories, methods and approaches used within 199 original quantitative, qualitative, statistical, and non-statistical articles covering households’ attitudes, awareness, tendencies, knowledge, motives, willingness, intentions, and adoption decisions. The study provides a critical analysis of investigations on the adoption of solar photovoltaics, solar home systems, and solar photovoltaics coupled with battery energy storage systems. The outcome of the review revealed 108 future and 91 retroactive studies that exploit 10 key dependent variables by means of 52% primary (empirical data), 34% secondary (available sources), and 13% covering both modes of data collection. The sensitivity of these dependent variables was tested by 36 intervention variables that seek to capacitate effective managerial policies. The complexity of the individual decision was comprehended by 13 forms of behavioural theories, with the top-ranked two being the diffusion of innovation and the theory of planned behaviour. The literature showcased a total of 170 quantitative, 20 qualitative, and nine mixed-method studies, with statistical and non-statistical techniques being applied 139 and 86 times, respectively. Regression analysis was the most commonly used statistical analysis method, followed by spatial analysis for non-statistical models. At the heart of the predictive methods for analysing the diffusion rate of these solar technologies, nuances of 25 agent-based models and their social networks were examined in depth. The review further revealed 14 spectra of household categories as well as 12 typologies of household comparisons.
M. Alipour; H. Salim; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. Residential solar photovoltaic adoption behaviour: End-to-end review of theories, methods and approaches. Renewable Energy 2021, 170, 471 -486.
AMA StyleM. Alipour, H. Salim, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin. Residential solar photovoltaic adoption behaviour: End-to-end review of theories, methods and approaches. Renewable Energy. 2021; 170 ():471-486.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Alipour; H. Salim; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. 2021. "Residential solar photovoltaic adoption behaviour: End-to-end review of theories, methods and approaches." Renewable Energy 170, no. : 471-486.
The Australian affordable rental housing sector has historically faced barriers to green building (GB) adoption due to issues of split-incentives, despite financial support from the commonwealth. This paper explores how a recent shift towards bond-based funding mechanisms offer an opportunity to integrate green building practices, and influence regional social, environmental and economic outcomes. A novel system dynamics model is developed to forecast a business as usual (BAU) and green-building scenario framed around the recently introduced Australian Affordable Housing Bond Aggregator (AHBA) policy framework. The purpose of the model is to examine how a mandate on green building standards together with the use of green versus conventional bonds impact social, environmental and economic outcomes of the framework over a 20-year horizon, within the South East Queensland metropolitan area of Australia. The study determined that the green building framework would deliver 2.37% less housing overall due to higher initial capital costs. However, offers substantial long-term energy and water efficiency benefits, improved affordability for tenants due to reduced utility costs, deferred water and energy infrastructure benefits, and considerable contributions towards Australia’s carbon emission reduction targets. Tenants are expected to benefit from a 45–59% reduction in energy and a 27% decrease in water bills. Moreover, a shift to affordable green building policy could contribute to 2.9% of Australia’s Conference of Parties (2030) carbon emissions reduction target if applied nationally. The study concludes with a sensitivity analysis to reveal policy refinement recommendations that would yield the benefits of green affordable housing without sacrificing the small reduction in housing stock delivered by the proposed program.
S. MacAskill; O. Sahin; R.A. Stewart; E. Roca; B. Liu. Examining green affordable housing policy outcomes in Australia: A systems approach. Journal of Cleaner Production 2021, 293, 126212 .
AMA StyleS. MacAskill, O. Sahin, R.A. Stewart, E. Roca, B. Liu. Examining green affordable housing policy outcomes in Australia: A systems approach. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2021; 293 ():126212.
Chicago/Turabian StyleS. MacAskill; O. Sahin; R.A. Stewart; E. Roca; B. Liu. 2021. "Examining green affordable housing policy outcomes in Australia: A systems approach." Journal of Cleaner Production 293, no. : 126212.
Increasing demand for metals used in clean energy technologies including electric vehicles has led to an increased demand in certain metals such as nickel, cobalt and manganese. This has in turn led to an expanding interest in deep‐seabed mining (DSM) of polymetallic nodule deposits that contain these exact metals. The main concerns about DSM relate to the incomplete information available about the environmental risks associated with seabed mineral extraction. Key uncertainties need to be systematically addressed to refine environmental impact predictions and establish effective mitigation measures. Adaptive management is an iterative process for reducing the uncertainty that can be applied by both mining companies and regulatory bodies. This Brief Commentary reviews the key opportunities and challenges to operationalising adaptive management in DSM projects and highlights the need for a framework to move from theory to practice. The discussion proposes a systems approach to adaptive management, which could help to guide the environmental management of deep‐sea mineral extraction. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Jayden Hyman; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. Adaptive Management of Deep‐Seabed Mining Projects: A Systems Approach. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleJayden Hyman, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin. Adaptive Management of Deep‐Seabed Mining Projects: A Systems Approach. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJayden Hyman; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin. 2021. "Adaptive Management of Deep‐Seabed Mining Projects: A Systems Approach." Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management , no. : 1.
Research into the benefits of digital water metering (DWM) identified many benefits that were previously unrevealed in the literature. Many benefits are tangible and more easily quantified. Others, like a possible change in customer satisfaction (CS), are not. The objective of this study was to quantify any potential changes to CS from switching from conventional meters to DWM. The findings of a questionnaire survey of 178 customers determined a current average-CS score of 5.8 (0 (low) to 10 (high) scale); positive shifts in CS levels to individual DWM benefits of between 0.4 and 3.0; and, we demonstrated a prototype CS change prediction model that DWM implementation would derive a long-term CS step-change. The developed survey measurement items will benefit water utilities seeking to ascertain the benefits of DWM. The study will be of interest to researchers and water industry practitioners measuring CS and those developing business cases for DWM projects.
Ian Robert Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert J. Keller; Peter Prevos. Towards understanding the anticipated customer benefits of digital water metering. Urban Water Journal 2021, 18, 137 -150.
AMA StyleIan Robert Monks, Rodney A. Stewart, Oz Sahin, Robert J. Keller, Peter Prevos. Towards understanding the anticipated customer benefits of digital water metering. Urban Water Journal. 2021; 18 (3):137-150.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIan Robert Monks; Rodney A. Stewart; Oz Sahin; Robert J. Keller; Peter Prevos. 2021. "Towards understanding the anticipated customer benefits of digital water metering." Urban Water Journal 18, no. 3: 137-150.
The construction industry has often been criticised for its lack of innovation and commitment to R&D. Using a systems approach, this study examined a number of construction innovation system scenarios and policy interventions within the context of four future plausible Russian construction industry transition scenarios. A system dynamics (SD) model was developed to incorporate the main actors of the construction innovation process, namely industry, government and academia. The SD model provided insight into the complexity and inherent dynamics of innovation processes caused by multiple feedback loops, nonlinearity and time delays in decision-making. The SD model also addressed the challenges of transforming Russia’s construction industry into a highly developed sector by providing an understanding of how government policies and supportive programmes could encourage industrialists to innovate, promote research and transfer technology. The transition scenarios were developed by considering the variation of two factors driving innovation in the construction sector, namely: (1) the conditions and level of government financial support; and (2) demand for innovation related to market expectations, largely dictated by traditional versus progressive procurement processes. One key finding was that the Russian construction industry preferences imitation-oriented innovation development.
Emiliya Suprun; Rodney Stewart; Oz Sahin; Kriengsak Panuwatwanich. Enhancing Innovativeness in the Construction Sector: A System Dynamics Analysis. Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems 2020, 41 -46.
AMA StyleEmiliya Suprun, Rodney Stewart, Oz Sahin, Kriengsak Panuwatwanich. Enhancing Innovativeness in the Construction Sector: A System Dynamics Analysis. Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems. 2020; ():41-46.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEmiliya Suprun; Rodney Stewart; Oz Sahin; Kriengsak Panuwatwanich. 2020. "Enhancing Innovativeness in the Construction Sector: A System Dynamics Analysis." Plant-Microbes-Engineered Nano-particles (PM-ENPs) Nexus in Agro-Ecosystems , no. : 41-46.
Whale-watching is a global tourism industry whose annual revenue exceeds two billion dollars. Australia is a key player in this industry, especially on the east and west coast where humpback whales migrate each year between their breeding and feeding grounds. However, the global whale-watching industry faces uncertainty from changing whale migration patterns, with whales progressively ‘arriving’ at the traditional whale-watching areas earlier than in previous years/decades. If the whale-watching industry cannot evolve with these changing dynamics then the arrival of the whales might be missed resulting in a potential loss of revenue. This social-ecological issue has suddenly been exacerbated by the disruption to tourism caused by the global pandemic COVID-19. In this study, we use a systems modelling framework, which combines qualitative and quantitative processes, to evaluate the social-ecological system behaviour of the whale-watching industry. We apply this systems approach to the Gold Coast, one of Australia's premier tourist destinations and home to a vibrant whale-watching industry. The outcome of this systems assessment is that the efficacy of the whale-watching industry is affected through determinants of both supply (ability to respond to changes in whale behaviour) and demand (attractiveness of whale-watching). Furthermore, the recovery time of all tourism after COVID-19 will take years if not decades.
Russell Richards; Jan-Olaf Meynecke; Oz Sahin. Addressing dynamic uncertainty in the whale-watching industry under climate change and system shocks. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 756, 143889 .
AMA StyleRussell Richards, Jan-Olaf Meynecke, Oz Sahin. Addressing dynamic uncertainty in the whale-watching industry under climate change and system shocks. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 756 ():143889.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRussell Richards; Jan-Olaf Meynecke; Oz Sahin. 2020. "Addressing dynamic uncertainty in the whale-watching industry under climate change and system shocks." Science of The Total Environment 756, no. : 143889.
In order to realise SeaCities as depicted in this book, several individual projects, at a building (e.g. floating houses) and community (e.g. energy–water–food supply, transportation) levels, need to be designed to solve the inherent issues of such relatively unexplored urban concept. In this chapter, the focus is on the importance of modelling in providing a critical set of support tools to better inform SeaCities design and decision-making. The chapter is intended for the reader interested in SeaCities and relatively unfamiliar with the modelling world. The chapter is structured as follows: First, a brief justification of the need for modelling in SeaCities is provided (“WHY modelling”); this is followed by examples of systems, elements or parameters that will require modelling (“WHAT modelling”). Next, different modelling categories are introduced, based on different criteria, such as the type of inputs available or the type of output desired (“HOW modelling”). The chapter concludes with two case studies, selected as examples of an integrated, participatory systems approach which is suggested as being highly applicable to many of the future SeaCities modelling needs.
Edoardo Bertone; Oz Sahin. Modelling of SeaCities: Why, What and How to Model. SeaCities 2020, 271 -294.
AMA StyleEdoardo Bertone, Oz Sahin. Modelling of SeaCities: Why, What and How to Model. SeaCities. 2020; ():271-294.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEdoardo Bertone; Oz Sahin. 2020. "Modelling of SeaCities: Why, What and How to Model." SeaCities , no. : 271-294.
Promoting renewable energy technology (RET) adoption among the hotel sector would reduce its emissions given that the hotel sector consumes high amounts of electricity. Previous research suggests that the adoption of RET in the hotel sector includes an interplay between incentive policies, technology advancement, tourist behaviour and hotelier perception of RET. However, a quantitative model is needed to triangulate the results. System dynamics simulation, in conjunction with the Generalized Bass model, was used to model RET adoption for the hotel sector in Queensland, Australia. The sensitivity analysis was used to determine the leverage point(s) of RET adoption. The results demonstrated that the adoption rate follows the S-curve growth only when the market condition is favourable; technology performance leverages RET adoption more than the government incentives; and hotelier and tourist perceptions act as market accelerators, triggering more adopters to follow suit.
Nina Dhirasasna; Oz Sahin. A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector. Renewable Energy 2020, 163, 1994 -2007.
AMA StyleNina Dhirasasna, Oz Sahin. A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector. Renewable Energy. 2020; 163 ():1994-2007.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNina Dhirasasna; Oz Sahin. 2020. "A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector." Renewable Energy 163, no. : 1994-2007.
Changes to Australia’s climate and land-use patterns could result in expanded spatial and temporal distributions of endemic mosquito vectors including Aedes and Culex species that transmit medically important arboviruses. Climate and land-use changes greatly influence the suitability of habitats for mosquitoes and their behaviors such as mating, feeding and oviposition. Changes in these behaviors in turn determine future species-specific mosquito diversity, distribution and abundance. In this review, we discuss climate and land-use change factors that influence shifts in mosquito distribution ranges. We also discuss the predictive and epidemiological merits of incorporating these factors into a novel integrated statistical (SSDM) and mechanistic species distribution modelling (MSDM) framework. One potentially significant merit of integrated modelling is an improvement in the future surveillance and control of medically relevant endemic mosquito vectors such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris, implicated in the transmission of many arboviruses such as Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, and exotic mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We conducted a focused literature search to explore the merits of integrating SSDMs and MSDMs with biotic and environmental variables to better predict the future range of endemic mosquito vectors. We show that an integrated framework utilising both SSDMs and MSDMs can improve future mosquito-vector species distribution projections in Australia. We recommend consideration of climate and environmental change projections in the process of developing land-use plans as this directly impacts mosquito-vector distribution and larvae abundance. We also urge laboratory, field-based researchers and modellers to combine these modelling approaches. Having many different variations of integrated (SDM) modelling frameworks could help to enhance the management of endemic mosquitoes in Australia. Enhanced mosquito management measures could in turn lead to lower arbovirus spread and disease notification rates.
Eugene T. Madzokere; Willow Hallgren; Oz Sahin; Julie A. Webster; Cameron E. Webb; Brendan Mackey; Lara J. Herrero. Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia. Parasites & Vectors 2020, 13, 1 -13.
AMA StyleEugene T. Madzokere, Willow Hallgren, Oz Sahin, Julie A. Webster, Cameron E. Webb, Brendan Mackey, Lara J. Herrero. Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia. Parasites & Vectors. 2020; 13 (1):1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEugene T. Madzokere; Willow Hallgren; Oz Sahin; Julie A. Webster; Cameron E. Webb; Brendan Mackey; Lara J. Herrero. 2020. "Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia." Parasites & Vectors 13, no. 1: 1-13.
Understanding the complexities around managing the end-of-life (EoL) residential solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) is a precursor to a better decision-making process that mitigates unintended product life-cycle impacts. In this paper, a participatory Systems Thinking approach was utilised to build a causal loop diagram (CLD) for this system based on the collective knowledge of stakeholders. The developed CLD was categorised into three sub-systems: (1) waste flows; (2) regulatory aspects; and (3) industry strategies and government incentives. Two main system archetypes were identified in a reflection to the CLD, namely fixes that fail and drifting goals. The identified feedback loops indicate the need to introduce a comprehensive national product stewardship scheme, complimentary landfill restrictions, and provide sufficient incentives to industries for promoting recovery activities within residential PV panels and BESS sectors. An effective waste management system for these renewable energy technologies is most effective if industries are required to participate through regulation which also specifies certain targets, such as product and material recovery rates and establishes a sustainable funding model to meet operational requirements and future needs. The increasingly prohibitive overseas waste export market will require local industries and governments to collaboratively improve domestic recycling capability and capacity. In this light, the failure to build an effective EoL management system for residential PV and BESS will result in valuable and hazardous materials in both technologies to be disposed of in the landfill, stockpiled or illegally dumped; consequently, reinforcing unintended and adverse environmental impacts.
H.K. Salim; R.A. Stewart; O. Sahin; M. Dudley. Systems approach to end-of-life management of residential photovoltaic panels and battery energy storage system in Australia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2020, 134, 110176 .
AMA StyleH.K. Salim, R.A. Stewart, O. Sahin, M. Dudley. Systems approach to end-of-life management of residential photovoltaic panels and battery energy storage system in Australia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2020; 134 ():110176.
Chicago/Turabian StyleH.K. Salim; R.A. Stewart; O. Sahin; M. Dudley. 2020. "Systems approach to end-of-life management of residential photovoltaic panels and battery energy storage system in Australia." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 134, no. : 110176.