Biased distribution of hydro-climate stations in high elevations are major obstacles for reliable appraisal of the hydro-climatic regime of the Chitral Basin located in the extreme north of Pakistan. We modeled this regime in the ARC-SWAT hydrological model forced with the latest gridded reanalysis ERA5 Land dataset, bias-corrected against a good quality reference dataset. The performance of the gridded dataset was cross-validated by comparing the model flow simulation against the observed flows. The ERA5 Land overall provided reasonably good estimates. The calibrated model on the daily time scale was able to provide excellent values of the employed statistical measures (NSE, KGE, PBIAS, RMSE and MAE). For a future climate change analysis, climate series was devised using two future projection scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the best performing GCM (MIROC5_rlilp1) out of five investigated GCMs. The results of the climate change analysis reveal increment in the average temperature up to +3.73 °C and +5.62 °C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the analysis of precipitation suggests an annual decrease up to −16% and −35% against RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of century. A future simulated flow analysis showed an increment of +0.25 % and decrease of −6.82% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Further analysis of climate suggests seasonal deflections especially in precipitation and flow regimes. A notable climb in flow quantities was observed during spring season (MAM) in spite of the major reduction in precipitation amounts for that season. This implicitly supports a high rate of glacial/snow melt especially in the spring season during that period. Frequent droughts and floods are also projected by examining flow durations at each interval of the 21st century.

Water treaties have played an important role in peaceful resolution of water-related conflicts. Although the mode of negotiation to resolve water-related conflicts may vary from treaty to treaty, a number of structural falls make them unprepared for the future needs. The Indus water treaty is perhaps quoted as the most successful water-sharing mechanism in the recent times. Against all odds, the treaty has fulfilled its job descriptions of being a mechanism providing a moderately reliable framework for the peaceful resolution of water-related conflicts. However, the climate change is quickly eroding that trust. The water-sharing mechanism lacks guidelines to cater the issues related to climate change and basin sustainability which require integrated approach for their addressal. But the structural inflexibility does not encourage the riparian to collaborate and build mutual trust for common good. The riparian countries, within the framework of treaty, attempt to elevate their national interests by deliberately refusing to comply with the treaty clauses in letter and spirit, and even manipulate data to deprive the competing riparian of water. We propose and argue on the need of adopting structurally sound forum for solving water conflicts which will assist in comprehensive policy-making to ensure the sustainability of transboundary water resources. The forum will also provide an opportunity for the riparian to work together towards confidence-building through sharing of real-time hydrological data and further scientific analysis based on that. Conclusively, the shortcomings of the present conflict-resolution method are addressed by encouraging riparian to collaborate at various levels.