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This study projects water availability and sustainability in Nigeria due to climate change. This study used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage data (TWS), Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation data and Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature data. Four general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 were downscaled using the best of four downscaling methods. Two machine learning (ML) models, RF and SVM, were developed to simulate GRACE TWS data for the period 2002–2016 and were then used for the projection of spatiotemporal changes in TWS. The projected TWS data were used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in water availability and sustainability based on the reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) concept. This study revealed that linear scaling was the best for downscaling over Nigeria. RF had better performance than SVM in modeling TWS for the study area. This study also revealed there would be decreases in water storage during the wet season (June–September) and increases in the dry season (January–May). Decreases in projected water availability were in the range of 0–12 mm for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 under RCP2.6 and in the range of 0–17 mm under RCP8.5 during the wet season. Spatially, annual changes in water storage are expected to increase in the northern part and decrease in the south, particularly in the country’s southeast. Groundwater sustainability was higher during the period 2070–2099 under all RCPs compared to the other periods and this can be attributed to the expected increases in rainfall during this period.
Mohammed Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Inhwan Park. Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6284 .
AMA StyleMohammed Shiru, Shamsuddin Shahid, Inhwan Park. Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (11):6284.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Inhwan Park. 2021. "Projection of Water Availability and Sustainability in Nigeria Due to Climate Change." Sustainability 13, no. 11: 6284.
Due to the recent appearance of shares socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, there have been many studies that compare the results between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs). This study attempted to project future drought characteristics in the Cheongmicheon watershed using SSP2-4.5 of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-coupled model (ACCESS-CM2) in addition to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 of ACCESS 1-3 of the same institute. The historical precipitation and temperature data of ACCESS-CM2 were generated better than those of ACCESS 1-3. Two meteorological drought indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to project meteorological drought while a hydrological drought index, Standardized Streamflow Index (SDI), was used to project the hydrological drought characteristics. The metrological data of GCMs were bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and the streamflow was obtained using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and bias-corrected meteorological data. As a result, there were large differences of drought occurrences and severities between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 for the values of SPI, SPEI, and SDI. The differences in the minimum values of drought index between near (2021–2060) and far futures (2061–2100) were very small in SSP2-4.5, while those in RCP4.5 were very large. In addition, the longest drought period from SDI was the largest because the variation in precipitation usually affects the streamflow with a lag. Therefore, it was concluded that it is important to consider both CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in establishing the drought countermeasures for the future period.
Jin Hyuck Kim; Jang Hyun Sung; Eun-Sung Chung; Sang Ug Kim; Minwoo Son; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru. Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2066 .
AMA StyleJin Hyuck Kim, Jang Hyun Sung, Eun-Sung Chung, Sang Ug Kim, Minwoo Son, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru. Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):2066.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJin Hyuck Kim; Jang Hyun Sung; Eun-Sung Chung; Sang Ug Kim; Minwoo Son; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru. 2021. "Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 2066.
This study compares multi model ensemble (MME) projections of rainfall using general quantile mapping, gamma quantile mapping, Power Transformation and Linear Scaling bias correction (BC) methods for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). Using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre historical period (1961–2005) rainfall data as the reference, projection was conducted over 323 grid points of Nigeria for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. The performances of the different BC methods in removing biases from the GCMs were assessed using different statistical indices. The computation of the MME of the projected rainfall was conducted by aggregation of 20 GCMs using random forest regression method. The percentage differences in the future rainfall relative to the historical period were estimated for all BC methods. Spatial projection of the percentage changes in rainfall for Linear scaling, which was the best performing BC method, showed increases in rainfall of 5.5–6.9% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, while the decrease range was −3.2–−4.2% respectively during the wet season. The range of annual increases in precipitation was 5.7–7.3% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, while the decrease range was −1.0–−4.3%. This study also revealed monthly rainfall within the country will decrease during the wet season between June and September, which is a significant period where most crops need the water for growth. Findings from this study can be of importance to policy makers in the management of changes in hydrological processes due to climate change and management of related disasters such as floods and droughts.
Mohammed Shiru; Inhwan Park. Comparison of Ensembles Projections of Rainfall from Four Bias Correction Methods over Nigeria. Water 2020, 12, 3044 .
AMA StyleMohammed Shiru, Inhwan Park. Comparison of Ensembles Projections of Rainfall from Four Bias Correction Methods over Nigeria. Water. 2020; 12 (11):3044.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Shiru; Inhwan Park. 2020. "Comparison of Ensembles Projections of Rainfall from Four Bias Correction Methods over Nigeria." Water 12, no. 11: 3044.
This study quantified the uncertainties in historical and future average monthly precipitation based on different bias correction methods, General Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), projection periods, and locations within the study area (i.e., the coastal and inland areas of South Korea). The GCMs were downscaled using deep learning, random forest, and nine quantile mapping bias correction methods for 22 gauge stations in South Korea. Data from the Korean Meteorology Administration (1970–2005) were used as the reference data in this study. Two statistical measures, the standard deviation and interquartile range, were used to quantify the uncertainties. The probability distribution density was used to assess the similarity/variation in rainfall distributions. For the historical period, the uncertainty in the selection of bias correction methods was greater than that in the selection of GCMs, whereas the opposite pattern was observed for the projection period. The projection period had the lowest level of uncertainty in the selection of RCP scenarios, and for the future, the uncertainly related to the time period was slightly lower than that for the other sources but was much greater than that for the RCP selection. In addition, it was clear that the level of uncertainty of inland areas is much lower than that of coastal areas. The uncertainty in the selection of the GCMs was slightly greater than that in the selection of the bias correction method. Therefore, the uncertainty in the selection of coastal areas was intermediate between the selection of bias correction methods and GCMs. This paper contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainties in climate change projections arising from various sources.
Young Song; Eun-Sung Chung; Mohammed Shiru. Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs. Sustainability 2020, 12, 7508 .
AMA StyleYoung Song, Eun-Sung Chung, Mohammed Shiru. Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (18):7508.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoung Song; Eun-Sung Chung; Mohammed Shiru. 2020. "Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs." Sustainability 12, no. 18: 7508.
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to global warming would affect sustainability in water resources in many regions. This change would impact several sectors, particularly the agricultural and water resources. The major objective of the present study is to model the impacts of climate change on spatial variability in water sustainability of Nigeria. Gauge based gridded rainfall data of global precipitation climatology centre (GPCC) and temperature data of climate research unit (CRU) for the period 1901–2010 and total water storage (TWS) anomaly data of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for the period 2002–2016 were used for this purpose. The concept of reliability-resiliency-vulnerability was used for the assessment of sustainability in water resources. Machine learning models were used for the development of empirical models for the simulation of TWS from GPCC rainfall and CRU temperature. Finally, the multi-model ensemble mean projections of rainfall and temperature of four GCMs namely MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and CESM1-CAM5 were used in the model for the assessment of climate change impact on water sustainability. The results revealed the declination of TWS in Nigeria up to −12 m during the rainy periods in some parts. Spatial assessment of the changes in TWS for the future shows the northeast, southeast and south-south parts would mostly experience decreases in TWS. Water sustainability will be low in these areas and some other parts of the country for the future.
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid. Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria. Springer Transactions in Civil and Environmental Engineering 2020, 405 -427.
AMA StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru, Eun-Sung Chung, Shamsuddin Shahid. Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria. Springer Transactions in Civil and Environmental Engineering. 2020; ():405-427.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2020. "Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria." Springer Transactions in Civil and Environmental Engineering , no. : 405-427.
The possible future changes in temperature over Nigeria were projected in this study. Using Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature as the reference data, gain ratio (GR), entropy gain (EG), and symmetrical uncertainty (SU) feature selection methods and a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach were used in selecting the most suitable GCMs for Nigeria from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). The biases in selected GCMs were corrected using power transformation (PT) method. Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) were generated for the selected GCMs for the different temperature classes’ maximum, average, and minimum for all RCPs. The MMEs were used for the projection of temperatures over the country during 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The GCMs HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and MRI-CGCM3 were the best performing in replicating temperature characteristics of the observed temperature in Nigeria. The MME mean projections of bias-corrected (BC) GCMs using PT revealed that there will be an increase in temperature of 4.0 °C at the semi-arid and 5.0 °C at the arid regions during dry and wet seasons respectively under RCP 4.5. In the same regions, the maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 5.5 °C under RCP 8.5 during 2070–2099 in the dry season. In the wet season, temperatures are expected to be higher under RCP 8.5, with an increase of 0.0–4.0 °C in the southern region and 3.0–6.9 °C in the northern region.
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid; Noraliani Alias. GCM selection and temperature projection of Nigeria under different RCPs of the CMIP5 GCMS. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2020, 141, 1611 -1627.
AMA StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru, Eun-Sung Chung, Shamsuddin Shahid, Noraliani Alias. GCM selection and temperature projection of Nigeria under different RCPs of the CMIP5 GCMS. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2020; 141 (3):1611-1627.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid; Noraliani Alias. 2020. "GCM selection and temperature projection of Nigeria under different RCPs of the CMIP5 GCMS." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 141, no. 3: 1611-1627.
Decreases in climatic water availability (CWA) and increases in crop water demand (CWD) in the background of climate change are a major concern in arid regions because of less water availability and higher irrigation requirements for crop production. Assessment of the spatiotemporal changes in CWA and CWD is important for the adaptation of irrigated agriculture to climate change for such regions. The recent changes in CWA and CWD during growing seasons of major crops have been assessed for Iraq where rapid changes in climate have been noticed in recent decades. Gridded precipitation of the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) and gridded temperature of the climate research unit (CRU) having a spatial resolution of 0.5°, were used for the estimation of CWA and CWD using simple water balance equations. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and one of its modified versions which can consider long-term persistence in time series, were used to estimate trends in CWA for the period 1961–2013. In addition, the changes in CWD between early (1961–1990) and late (1984–2013) periods were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank test. The results revealed a deficit in water in all the seasons in most of the country while a surplus in the northern highlands in all the seasons except summer was observed. A significant reduction in the annual amount of CWA at a rate of −1 to −13 mm/year was observed at 0.5 level of significance in most of Iraq except in the north. Decreasing trends in CWA in spring (−0.4 to −1.8 mm/year), summer (−5.0 to −11 mm/year) and autumn (0.3 to −0.6 mm/year), and almost no change in winter was observed. The CWA during the growing season of summer crop (millet and sorghum) was found to decrease significantly in most of Iraq except in the north. The comparison of CWD revealed an increase in agricultural water needs in the late period (1984–2013) compared to the early period (1961–1990) by 1.0–8.0, 1.0–14, 15–30, 14–27 and 0.0–10 mm for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively. The highest increase in CWD was found in April, October, June, June and April for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively.
Saleem A. Salman; Shamsuddin Shahid; Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen. Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3437 .
AMA StyleSaleem A. Salman, Shamsuddin Shahid, Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Zaher Mundher Yaseen. Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (8):3437.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaleem A. Salman; Shamsuddin Shahid; Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen. 2020. "Changes in Climatic Water Availability and Crop Water Demand for Iraq Region." Sustainability 12, no. 8: 3437.
Expansion of arid lands due to climate change, particularly in water stressed regions of the world can have severe implications on the economy and people’s livelihoods. The spatiotemporal trends in aridity, the shift of land from lower to higher arid classes and the effect of this shift on different land uses in Syria have been evaluated in this study for the period 1951–2010 using high-resolution monthly climate data of the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group of Princeton University. The trends in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration were also evaluated to understand the causes of aridity shifts. The results revealed an expansion of aridity in Syria during 1951–1980 compared to 1981–2010. About 6.21% of semi-arid land was observed to shift to arid class and 5.91% dry-subhumid land to semi-arid land between the two periods. Analysis of results revealed that the decrease in rainfall is the major cause of increasing aridity in Syria. About 28.3% of agriculture land located in the north and the northwest was found to shift from humid to dry-subhumid or dry-subhumid to semi-arid. Analysis of results revealed that the shifting of drylands mostly occurred in the northern agricultural areas of Syria. The land productivity and irrigation needs can be severely affected by increasing aridity which may affect food security and the economy of the country.
Mohammad Rajab Houmsi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Kamal Ahmed; Ghaith Falah Ziarh; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Sungkon Kim. Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria. Sustainability 2019, 11, 7047 .
AMA StyleMohammad Rajab Houmsi, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Kamal Ahmed, Ghaith Falah Ziarh, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung, Sungkon Kim. Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (24):7047.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammad Rajab Houmsi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Kamal Ahmed; Ghaith Falah Ziarh; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Sungkon Kim. 2019. "Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria." Sustainability 11, no. 24: 7047.
Water is gradually becoming scarce in Afghanistan like in many other regions of the globe. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial changes in the availability and sustainability of water resources in Afghanistan. The Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite obtained from three different institutes, having 1° × 1° spatial resolution for the period 2002–2016 was used for this purpose. Sen’s slope method was used to assess the rate of change, and the Modified Mann–Kendall test was used for the evaluation of the significance of trends in TWS. After, the concept of reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) was used for assessing the spatial distribution of sustainability in water resources. The results revealed a significant decrease in water availability in the country over the last 15 years. The decrease was found to be highest in the central region where most of the population of the country resides. The reliability in water resources was found high in the northeast Himalayan region and low in the southwest desert; resilience was found low in the central region, while vulnerability was found high in the south and the southeast. Overall, the water resources of the country were found most sustainable in the northeast and southwest and least in the south and the central parts. The maps of water resource sustainability and the changes in water availability produced in the present study can be used for long-term planning of water resources for adaptation to global changes. Besides, those can be used for the management of water resources in a sustainable and judicious manner.
Mohammad Naser Sediqi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Rawshan Ali; Shadan Abubaker; Xiaojun Wang; Kamal Ahmed; Shamsuddin Shahid; Asaduzzaman; Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5836 .
AMA StyleMohammad Naser Sediqi, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Rawshan Ali, Shadan Abubaker, Xiaojun Wang, Kamal Ahmed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Asaduzzaman, Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (20):5836.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammad Naser Sediqi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Rawshan Ali; Shadan Abubaker; Xiaojun Wang; Kamal Ahmed; Shamsuddin Shahid; Asaduzzaman; Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan." Sustainability 11, no. 20: 5836.
We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5° resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann–Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 °C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.
Ishanch Qutbudin; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Ahmad Sharafati; Kamal Ahmed; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan. Water 2019, 11, 1096 .
AMA StyleIshanch Qutbudin, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Ahmad Sharafati, Kamal Ahmed, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Zaher Mundher Yaseen, Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiaojun Wang. Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan. Water. 2019; 11 (5):1096.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIshanch Qutbudin; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Ahmad Sharafati; Kamal Ahmed; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. 2019. "Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan." Water 11, no. 5: 1096.
Droughts are more damaging when they occur during crop growing season. This research assessed the spatial distribution of drought risks to crops in Bangladesh. Catastrophe theory-based weighting method was used to estimate drought hazard, exposure, and risk by avoiding potential human bias. Ten major crops, including eight different types of rice, wheat, and potato, were selected for evaluation of drought risk. Results showed that 32.4%, 27.2%, and 16.2% of land in Bangladesh is prone to extreme Kharif (May-October), Rabi (November-April), and pre-Kharif (March-May) droughts, respectively. Among the major crops, Hybrid Boro rice cultivated in 18.2% of the area is found to be highly vulnerable to droughts, which is followed by High Yield Varity (HYV) Boro (16.9%), Transplant Aman (16.4%), HYV Aman (14.1%), and Basic Aman (12.4%) rice. Hybrid Boro rice in 12 districts, different varieties of Aman rice in 10 districts, and HYV Boro rice in 9 districts, mostly located in the north and northwest of Bangladesh, are exposed to high risk of droughts. High frequency of droughts and use of more land for agriculture have made the region highly prone to droughts. The methodology adopted in this study can be utilized for unbiased estimation of drought risk in agriculture in order to adopt necessary risk reduction measures.
Mahiuddin Alamgir; Morteza Mohsenipour; Rajab Homsi; Xiaojun Wang; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Nor Eliza Alias; Ali Yuzir. Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh. Sustainability 2019, 11, 1442 .
AMA StyleMahiuddin Alamgir, Morteza Mohsenipour, Rajab Homsi, Xiaojun Wang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Nor Eliza Alias, Ali Yuzir. Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (5):1442.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMahiuddin Alamgir; Morteza Mohsenipour; Rajab Homsi; Xiaojun Wang; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Nor Eliza Alias; Ali Yuzir. 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh." Sustainability 11, no. 5: 1442.
The objective of this study was to assess the changes in the severity and return periods of meteorological droughts during major cropping seasons of Nigeria for the period 1901–2010 in order to understand the impacts of climate variation on seasonal droughts. Gauge-based gridded global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall and climate research unit (CRU) potential evapotranspiration (PET) data having a spatial resolution of 0.5° were used for the reconstruction of droughts using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). SPEI values were fitted with the best distribution function to estimate seasonal droughts return periods and the modified Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the secular changes in climate variables and drought index. The temporal variations in droughts and their interrelations with rainfall and temperature trends were assessed using a 50-year moving window with a 10-year time step. The results showed that meteorological drought severity has increased for all the cropping seasons of Nigeria. Temperature was found to be the dominating factor for defining droughts in semi-arid regions in the north while rainfall in the monsoon and tropical savanna climatic zones dominates in the south. Rises in temperature in the range of 0.14–0.42 °C/decade and almost no change in rainfall have caused decreases in SPEI up to −0.25/decade in some regions. The number of grid points with decreasing SPEI was found to vary between 50 out of 323 for millet and 152 for yam growing season. The moderate droughts were found to become more frequent compared to other classes of droughts. Amongst the cropping seasons, the highest increases in drought frequency were observed during corn growing season. The highest decrease in the median value of the return period of moderate, severe and extreme droughts during the two corn growing seasons were observed to be 6.25, 12.86 to 13.20, 23.15 to 24.31 years in 1901–1950 to 6.25, 12.92 to 12.94, 23.51 to 23.64 in 1961–2010. Compared to other drought severities, the return periods of the moderate droughts were found to decrease more. A general decrease in the return periods of droughts indicates more frequent droughts during all cropping seasons of Nigeria. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rising temperature due to global warming would increase drought severity and frequency in all the cropping seasons of Nigeria.
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Noraliani Alias. Changing characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010. Atmospheric Research 2019, 223, 60 -73.
AMA StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung, Noraliani Alias. Changing characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010. Atmospheric Research. 2019; 223 ():60-73.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Noraliani Alias. 2019. "Changing characteristics of meteorological droughts in Nigeria during 1901–2010." Atmospheric Research 223, no. : 60-73.
This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.
Mohammed Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Noraliani Alias; Eun-Sung Chung. Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria. Sustainability 2018, 10, 871 .
AMA StyleMohammed Shiru, Shamsuddin Shahid, Noraliani Alias, Eun-Sung Chung. Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (3):871.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Noraliani Alias; Eun-Sung Chung. 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria." Sustainability 10, no. 3: 871.