Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (Camellia sinensis L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 10⁴ km² (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 10⁴ km² (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 10⁴ km² (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.

Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), as one of the most important cash crops in China, plays an important role in increasing farmers’ incomes and guaranteeing a high quality of life. Tea production has been greatly influenced by both climate change and economic development in China. However, without a scientific understanding of the interaction mechanism of climate change and the impetus from rapid economic development on tea production practices in China, it is difficult to take adaptive actions to meet the climate change challenges for the tea industry. In this paper, we firstly assessed the potential impacts of climate change on tea climate suitability by empirical formula calculation using meteorological data; then, the effects from the additional climatic stress due to warming on tea production were detected with the annual statistical tea yield record on a municipal level. The contribution of socioeconomic development to the tea industry was evaluated with the comparison of the movement of China’s national economy’s and tea industry’s gravity center during the period of 1987–2017. Finally, a conceptual adaptation framework was built to demonstrate the interaction mechanisms between climate change, tea production, and the economic development. The results showed that there was a negative impact of climate change on tea production in mainland China, with the percentage of high tea climate suitability (>0.9) areas dropping by 45% to 32%, while opportunities of enlarging the tea cultivating area emerged in the north tea production region where the tea climate suitability increased. We found that the tea planting area expanded northwards from 33° N in 1987 to 35° N in 2017 to take advantage of the favorable climatic resources due to warming, and tea planting decreased at an altitude of 100–400 m while increasing to higher altitude of 400–2000 m to avoid hot temperature damage and seek the optimum environment in high mountainous areas for tea production. In addition, the tea production moved westward along the longitude, decreasing obviously at 117–121° E while increasing significantly at 98–104° E and 107–110° E. Meanwhile, the tea production gravity center showed a westward movement consistent with the national economic gravity center moving trend, which means that tea industry development was driven by multiple socioeconomic factors and climatic forcings. A conceptual framework was built in this paper, aiming to show a robust adaptation mechanism for the tea system to maximize the benefits and minimize the damages from the altered climatic resources under rapid economic development in mainland China. The results in this study would help deepen the understanding of the adaptation process and practices for tea production in mainland China.

Climate change has been disturbing the present species distribution ranges, resulting in the shifting of cultivation areas and decreases in production and quality. Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), which seeks optimum climatic resources, is a key cash crop economically in Kenya. In this study, the shifting of tea suitability was projected with the MaxEnt model under the SSP (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2090s relative to the 1970–2000 distribution. Analysis under the current climatic condition showed that the proportions of optimal and medium- and marginal-suitable areas were 2%, 3%, and 24% of the total area, respectively, and located in south-western (SW), central, and north-eastern (NE) Kenya and, to some extent, in the Rift Valley. It was projected that the potential suitable tea-growing areas would migrate from the western areas to the central, eastern, and north-eastern highlands in Kenya. It was detected that the precipitation of the driest period (July), precipitation of the wettest quarter (April, May, and June), and annual temperature range could be the main climatic factors determining the shift in tea distribution. Compared to the current distribution (29%), the climatically suitable areas for tea production could reach 32.58% of Kenya’s land area under the SSP1-2.6 scenarios in the 2050s and 35.08% in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. On the contrary, it was found that the optimal climate-suitable habitats were projected to shrink by 2% and 1% in the 2050s and 2090s under all scenarios on the west side of the Great Rift Valley compared to the current distribution. In comparison, the sizes of medium- and marginal-suitable habitats would increase by 1% and 3%, respectively. The findings indicated that unless adaptive climate actions are taken, climate change could reduce the tea planting areas in western Kenya. Meanwhile, climate suitability was projected to expand upward on the east side of the Rift Valley, enhancing the potential distribution of tea. The developed climate information could be used to design and implement adaptation interventions in the lower elevation areas. Finally, we highlight that the available scientific literature on the climate suitability of tea in Kenya should be broadened by adding non-climatic factors.

Exploring the trade-off/synergy among ecosystem services (ESs) of agroecosystems could provide effective support for improving agricultural resilience for sustainable development. The construction of ecological tea gardens is emerging, aims to achieve a win-win situation for the tea industry and ecological environment protection. However, the effect of ES trade-offs/synergies on tea production is still not clear. In this study, we selected Fuzhou city, China, as a case study and explored the relationship among tea production and ESs in 2010 and 2020. Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Intelligent Urban Ecosystem Management System (IUEMS) models were used to assess the ecosystem (dis)services, which were tea production, water yield, soil retention, net primary productivity (NPP), climate regulation, soil erosion and carbon emissions. Then, the sum of trade-off/synergy coefficients of ESs (C_ts) were defined to reveal the trade-off/synergy in tea gardens and areas except tea gardens (ETG areas). K-means clustering was used to assess the spatiotemporal change of traditional tea garden and ecological tea garden, reflecting the effect of ecological tea garden construction. The results showed that: (1) the high-value areas of tea production were mainly distributed in Lianjiang County, with yields up to 3.6 t/ha, and the low-value areas in Yongtai County, with yields from 0.1–1.0 t/ha. Other ESs showed spatial heterogeneity. (2) The trade-offs in ETG areas intensified from 2010 to 2020, with C_ts decreasing from −0.28 to −0.73, and the synergy in tea garden was at risk of decline, with C_ts decreasing from 4.46 to 1.02. (3) From 2010 to 2020, 96.72% of traditional tea gardens (Area I) were transformed into ecological tea gardens (Areas IV and V). (4) Further, we classified the tea garden into five zones based on tea yield, with Zone I as the low tea yield areas and Zone V as the highest. From Zone I to Zone V, the C_ts increased from 2.6 to 7.5 in 2010, and from 1.9 to 6.5 in 2020, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the construction of ecological tea gardens in Fuzhou and provide a reference for subsequent studies on the ESs of tea gardens and governance of ecological tea gardens.

China is a major producer of green tea, and most of its green tea production comes from small farmers. Accessing the carbon emission status of this group can provide data support and a decision-making basis for the realization of carbon neutrality in China’s tea industry. In this study, the life cycle assessment method was used to analyze the carbon footprint of green tea produced by smallholder farmers in Liugou Village, Hanzhong City, Shaanxi Province. The results showed that the carbon emission intensity of green tea for its entire life cycle was 32.90 kg CO₂eq kg⁻¹ dry tea, and the carbon emission intensities of its consumption, processing, and cultivation were 14.90, 7.94, and 6.97 kg CO₂eq kg⁻¹, respectively. In the processing stage, emissions during steaming and drying accounted for 57%. The use of coal, complicated processing procedures, and older equipment were the main reasons for the high emissions in the processing stage. In the cultivation process, emissions mainly came from fertilizer production and its application in the field. The energy consumption of boiling water resulted in high carbon emissions in the consumption stage. This study suggests that building a scientific fertilization system for tea gardens, optimizing processing equipment and energy utilization structure, and cultivating the concept of low-carbon consumption will be the keys to promoting smallholder farmers to reduce carbon emissions. This study further emphasizes that we should focus on carbon emissions caused by the production processes of small farmers.