This article is devoted to assessing and substantiating the threats for countries/exporters of agricultural products to the EU under conditions of the European Green Deal. The revealed comparative advantages index (RCA), comparison method, correlation and regression analysis, and taxonomic method have been applied. According to the RCA index the main causes for the relatively significant volume of agri-food exports by some countries to the EU have been identified; using the comparison method it was found that among the leading countries by agricultural products export to the EU, many states do not meet the European Green Deal target criteria for agriculture. Correlation and regression analysis has revealed that among the chosen factors only the volume of fertilisers use per cropland has direct and strong influence on CO2eq emissions; by a taxonomic method the threats value for the leading agri-food exporters to the EU has been calculated. The major agri-food exporters to the EU under conditions of the European Green Deal targets till 2030 have a high threat regarding reduction of their supply to the Member States in the case of a possible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism or the introduction of other import restriction mechanisms in future. The results of the study can be used by the government and other executive bodies of the analysed countries to make adequate and rapid decisions to avoid the threats of possible agri-food exports reduction to the EU under the further European Green Deal implementation.

The article analyzed the state of the global problem of ecological safety of the EU and argued the need to create a methodology for planning technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” (TIP “EGD”) that accounts for the risks to the stakeholders, i.e., the state, project executors, resource suppliers, project managers, and clients. Each of these has an individual set of values that determines the project risk for them. Herein is proposed a taxonomy of three ranks of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste, determined by their characteristics, products, and requirements for the stakeholders. The authors point out the need to create tools for quantitative risk assessment for the stakeholders of TIP “EGD” involving agricultural waste and distinguish four groups of risk components with regard to the value of such projects. A model of value risk formation is presented that addresses the risk management of each of these stakeholder values. The need to develop tools (models, methods, and algorithms) for quantitative risk assessment of the values of each type of project is discussed. Regularities in the formation of stakeholder values, which were a foundation of the model of formation, are established.

An analysis of the state of affairs in the theory and practice of implementation of technologically integrated projects in various applied fields was carried out. The peculiarities of the implementation of the technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” for the production of ecologically clean fuel from agricultural waste were analyzed. The expediency of developing a method of coordinating the configurations of technologically integrated “European Green Deal” projects for the production of ecologically clean energy from agricultural waste on the territory of a given region, taking into account their specific project environments, was substantiated. As a result of the conducted research, a method of coordinating configurations of the technologically integrated “European Green Deal” projects for the production of ecologically clean energy from agricultural waste in the territory of a given region, taking into account their specific project environment, was developed. This method involves the implementation of five stages, which ensure consideration of the specific design environment of each region and the type of agricultural raw materials for energy production. This method involves the modeling of individual projects, which makes it possible to increase the accuracy of determining their value indicators, taking into account risk. The balancing of the technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” for the production of clean energy from agricultural waste was carried out on the basis of maximizing value for stakeholders and minimizing risk. On the basis of the proposed method, the computer program “Balancing technologically integrated projects” was developed. The use of this computer program for the given project environment (conditions of LLC “Lutsk Agrarian Company” of the Volyn region, Ukraine) made it possible to forecast the specific value and risk of individual projects involving harvesting raw materials from corn waste. The statistical characteristics of the distribution of the projected specific value of the project of harvesting raw materials from corn waste were established: the estimate of mathematical expectation—EUR 9/ton; dispersion—EUR 25/ton; the estimation of root mean square deviation—EUR 5/ton. The technologically integrated projects of the “European Green Deal” for the production of ecologically clean energy from corn waste with the greatest interconnections in terms of value were identified. The ranking of raw material procurement projects from corn waste was carried out according to their specific values and risks. Among the considered projects, priority was given to project #7 and project #1, which provided the greatest values, 37.6% and 36.6%, respectively, of the total value of the considered projects. The obtained results made it possible to establish priority projects and carry out their balancing by value and risk.

A review of the current state of the theory and practice of bioenergy production from waste allowed us to identify the scientific and applied problem of substantiating the rational configuration of a modular anaerobic bioenergy system, taking into account the volume of organic waste generated in settlements. To solve this problem, this paper develops an approach and an algorithm for matching the configuration of a modular anaerobic bioenergy production system with the amount of organic waste generated in residential areas. Unlike the existing tools, this takes into account the peculiarities of residential areas, which is the basis for accurate forecasting of organic waste generation and, accordingly, determining the configuration of the bioenergy production system. In addition, for each of the scenarios, the anaerobic digestion process is modeled, which allows us to determine the functional indicators that underlie the determination of a rational configuration in terms of cost and environmental performance. Based on the use of the developed tools for the production conditions of the Golosko residential area, Lviv (Ukraine), possible scenarios for the installation of modular anaerobic bioenergy production systems are substantiated. It was found that the greatest annual benefits are obtained from the processing of mixed food and yard waste. The payback period of investments in modular anaerobic bioenergy production systems for given conditions of a residential area largely depends on their configuration and ranges from 3.3 to 8.4 years, which differ from each other by 2.5 times. This indicates that the developed toolkit is of practical value, as it allows the coordination of the rational configuration of modular anaerobic bioenergy production systems with real production conditions. In the future, it is recommended to use the proposed decision support system to model the use of biomass as an energy resource in residential areas, which ensures the determination of the rational configuration of a modular anaerobic bioenergy production system for given conditions.

The article examines trends and prospects of the new economy for achieving the goals of sustainable development, systematizes the basic principles of a green economy. The authors analyzes key indicators of sustainable development in Ukraine, examines the possibility of implementing a low carbon strategy and the basics of the green economy in Ukraine and summarizes the main levers of the country for the transition to sustainable development. Keywords sustainable development, low carbon strategy, green economy, development, blue economy, natural resources, economic growth.

The main objective of the European Green Deal is to achieve full climate neutrality of the EU by 2050, including the agri-food system, which occupies a prominent place in the community economy. Producing zero net greenhouse gas emissions and promoting the sustainable development of the sector in the long term means a green transformation of all components of the EU agri-food system, primarily agricultural production and food industry. It has been determined that agricultural production is one of the main GHG emitters in the agri-food system of the EU and Ukraine, ahead of the food and processing industry. It has also been revealed that the amount of GHG (in carbon dioxide equivalent) from agricultural production per one US dollar of value added significantly exceeds the same value from the food and processing industry. This proves the fact that production of finished food is more sustainable than production of agricultural raw materials. Thus, progress in addressing the issue of achieving climate neutrality and ensuring sustainable development of the EU agri-food system largely depends on the greening of agriculture and the deepening of the degree of processing of agricultural raw materials. It is substantiated that in the context of Ukraine's integration into the EU, it is advisable to pay significant attention to the development of its own food and processing industry, which is not only beneficial from an economic side, but should also contribute to better achieving the European Green Deal purpose. It was clarified that in Ukraine and the EU, household food consumption and food waste disposal account for a relatively high percentage of GHG in the structure of the agri-food system. The study is based on 2022 data.