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California's agricultural sector is the highest valued agricultural sector in the United States. It is also a global leader in the production of various specialty crops, including three major tree nuts - almond, walnut, and pistachio. These three nut crops accounted for approximately 16% of the state's total agricultural economy. Current and future changes in climate pose many challenges in agriculture and impacts related to increased pest pressure in agriculture due to elevated temperatures are significant. The navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker), is the most challenging pest of tree nuts in California and often cause a significant economic loss despite the careful implementation of multiple pest control tactics. Temperature variations can directly affect the developmental rates, behavior, and overall population dynamics of this pest, and it is critically important to understand these dynamics with respect to climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the timing and number of navel orangeworm generations in almonds, walnuts, and pistachios for the entire Central Valley of California using projections from ten general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios. The results suggest that navel orangeworm is likely to complete its life cycle much faster under climate change due to projected temperature increases. The results also suggest that under future climate change, navel orangeworm can complete one additional generation within the growing season and likely going to pose significant risks to these major nut industries in the future. Quantifying navel orangeworm generations and assessing risks to tree nuts under climate change can help facilitate and strategize integrated pest management (IPM) practices to the sustainability of the production systems by minimizing risks.
Tapan B. Pathak; Mahesh L. Maskey; Jhalendra P. Rijal. Impact of climate change on navel orangeworm, a major pest of tree nuts in California. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 755, 142657 .
AMA StyleTapan B. Pathak, Mahesh L. Maskey, Jhalendra P. Rijal. Impact of climate change on navel orangeworm, a major pest of tree nuts in California. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 755 ():142657.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTapan B. Pathak; Mahesh L. Maskey; Jhalendra P. Rijal. 2021. "Impact of climate change on navel orangeworm, a major pest of tree nuts in California." Science of The Total Environment 755, no. : 142657.
Strawberry is a high value and labor-intensive specialty crop in California. The three major fruit production areas on the Central Coast complement each other in producing fruits almost throughout the year. Forecasting strawberry yield with some lead time can help growers plan for required and often limited human resources and aid in making strategic business decisions. The objectives of this paper were to investigate the correlation among various weather parameters related with strawberry yield at the field level and to evaluate yield forecasts using the predictive principal component regression (PPCR) and two machine-learning techniques: (a) a single layer neural network (NN) and (b) generic random forest (RF). The meteorological parameters were a combination of the sensor data measured in the strawberry field, meteorological data obtained from the nearest weather station, and calculated agroclimatic indices such as chill hours. The correlation analysis showed that all of the parameters were significantly correlated with strawberry yield and provided the potential to develop weekly yield forecast models. In general, the machine learning technique showed better skills in predicting strawberry yields when compared to the principal component regression. More specifically, the NN provided the most skills in forecasting strawberry yield. While observations of one growing season are capable of forecasting crop yield with reasonable skills, more efforts are needed to validate this approach in various fields in the region.
Mahesh L. Maskey; Tapan B Pathak; Surendra K. Dara. Weather Based Strawberry Yield Forecasts at Field Scale Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 378 .
AMA StyleMahesh L. Maskey, Tapan B Pathak, Surendra K. Dara. Weather Based Strawberry Yield Forecasts at Field Scale Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models. Atmosphere. 2019; 10 (7):378.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMahesh L. Maskey; Tapan B Pathak; Surendra K. Dara. 2019. "Weather Based Strawberry Yield Forecasts at Field Scale Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models." Atmosphere 10, no. 7: 378.
California has a unique Mediterranean climate, well suited for irrigated agriculture. The climate is an important factor in making California a global leader in production of many high value crops, including procesing tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill), with production of approximately 95% nation’s and 30% of world’s processing tomatoes. However, climate change poses many immediate and long-term challenges for state’s highly productive agricultural industry. In order to help growers manage risks, it is important to study locally relevant agronomic indicators that are viable and aligned with growers’ interests. Growing degree day models translate raw climate data into meaningful agricultural indicators which growers can utilize for immediate and long-term strategic decisions. Objective of this study was to analyze growing season trend in top five processing tomato-producing counties in California through the use of growing degree-days model and historical and future climate scenarios generated from the general circulation model (GCM). Based on the findings, the models indicated a significant decrease in the number of days between transplanting and maturity, with an expected harvest 2–3 weeks earlier than normal under current conditions and cultivars. Results from this study could be utilized to make strategic decisions such as variety selection, planting and harvest dates, agricultural water management, and studying trends in pests and diseases due to shifts and lengthening of tomato growing season in the tomato production areas of California.
Tapan B. Pathak; C. Scott Stoddard. Climate change effects on the processing tomato growing season in California using growing degree day model. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 2018, 4, 765 -775.
AMA StyleTapan B. Pathak, C. Scott Stoddard. Climate change effects on the processing tomato growing season in California using growing degree day model. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment. 2018; 4 (2):765-775.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTapan B. Pathak; C. Scott Stoddard. 2018. "Climate change effects on the processing tomato growing season in California using growing degree day model." Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 4, no. 2: 765-775.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 3 for some key, climate-sensitive crops.
Steven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany; George Zhuang. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleSteven Ostoja, Tapan Pathak, Katherine Jarvis-Shean, Mark Battany, George Zhuang. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSteven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany; George Zhuang. 2018. "Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3." Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 3 , no. : 1.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California NRCS Area 2 for six key, climate-sensitive crops.
Steven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany; Andre S. Biscaro. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleSteven Ostoja, Tapan Pathak, Katherine Jarvis-Shean, Mark Battany, Andre S. Biscaro. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSteven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany; Andre S. Biscaro. 2018. "Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2." Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 2 , no. : 1.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 4 for five key, climate-sensitive crops.
Steven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Andre S. Biscaro; Mark Battany. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleSteven Ostoja, Tapan Pathak, Andre S. Biscaro, Mark Battany. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSteven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Andre S. Biscaro; Mark Battany. 2018. "Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4." Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS area 4 , no. : 1.
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 1 for five key, climate-sensitive crops.
Steven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleSteven Ostoja, Tapan Pathak, Katherine Jarvis-Shean, Mark Battany. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSteven Ostoja; Tapan Pathak; Katherine Jarvis-Shean; Mark Battany. 2018. "Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1." Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change: NRCS Area 1 , no. : 1.
California is a global leader in the agricultural sector and produces more than 400 types of commodities. The state produces over a third of the country’s vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts. Despite being highly productive, current and future climate change poses many challenges to the agricultural sector. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge on historical and future trends in climate and their impacts on California agriculture. We present a synthesis of climate change impacts on California agriculture in the context of: (1) historic trends and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, heat waves, drought, and flood events; and (2) consequent impacts on crop yields, chill hours, pests and diseases, and agricultural vulnerability to climate risks. Finally, we highlight important findings and directions for future research and implementation. The detailed review presented in this paper provides sufficient evidence that the climate in California has changed significantly and is expected to continue changing in the future, and justifies the urgency and importance of enhancing the adaptive capacity of agriculture and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Since agriculture in California is very diverse and each crop responds to climate differently, climate adaptation research should be locally focused along with effective stakeholder engagement and systematic outreach efforts for effective adoption and implementation. The expected readership of this paper includes local stakeholders, researchers, state and national agencies, and international communities interested in learning about climate change and California’s agriculture.
Tapan B. Pathak; Mahesh L. Maskey; Jeffery A. Dahlberg; Faith Kearns; Khaled M. Bali; Daniele Zaccaria. Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review. Agronomy 2018, 8, 25 .
AMA StyleTapan B. Pathak, Mahesh L. Maskey, Jeffery A. Dahlberg, Faith Kearns, Khaled M. Bali, Daniele Zaccaria. Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review. Agronomy. 2018; 8 (3):25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTapan B. Pathak; Mahesh L. Maskey; Jeffery A. Dahlberg; Faith Kearns; Khaled M. Bali; Daniele Zaccaria. 2018. "Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review." Agronomy 8, no. 3: 25.
California state is among the leading producers of strawberries in the world. The value of the California strawberry crop is approximately $2.6 billion, which makes it one of the most valuable fruit crops for the state and nation’s economy. California’s weather provides ideal conditions for strawberry production and changes in weather pattern could have a significant impact on strawberry fruit production. Evaluating relationships between meteorological parameters and strawberry yield can provide valuable information and early indications of yield forecasts that growers can utilize to their advantage. Objectives of this paper were to evaluate correlations of meteorological parameters on strawberry yield for Santa Maria region and to develop meteorology based empirical yield forecasting models for strawberries. Results showed significant correlation between meteorological parameters and strawberry yield and provided a basis for yield forecasting with lead time. Results from empirical models showed that cross-validated yields were closely associated with observed yield with lead time of 2 to 5 months. Overall, this study showed great potential in developing meteorology based yield forecast using principal components. This study only looked at meteorology based yield forecasts. Skills of these models can be further improved by adding physiological parameters of strawberry to existing models for strawberry.
Tapan B. Pathak; Surendra K. Dara; Andre Biscaro. Evaluating Correlations and Development of Meteorology Based Yield Forecasting Model for Strawberry. Advances in Meteorology 2016, 2016, 1 -7.
AMA StyleTapan B. Pathak, Surendra K. Dara, Andre Biscaro. Evaluating Correlations and Development of Meteorology Based Yield Forecasting Model for Strawberry. Advances in Meteorology. 2016; 2016 ():1-7.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTapan B. Pathak; Surendra K. Dara; Andre Biscaro. 2016. "Evaluating Correlations and Development of Meteorology Based Yield Forecasting Model for Strawberry." Advances in Meteorology 2016, no. : 1-7.