The accuracy of monthly runoff predictions is crucial for decision-making and efficiency in various areas, such as water resources management, flood control and disaster mitigation, hydraulic engineering scheduling, and agricultural irrigation. Therefore, in order to further improve the accuracy of monthly runoff prediction, aiming at the problem that the traditional Stacking ensemble method ignores (the base model correlation between different folds in the prediction process), this paper proposes a novel Stacking multi-scale ensemble learning model (SWA–FWWS) based on random weight averaging and a K-fold cross-validation weighted ensemble. Then, it is evaluated and compared with base models and other multi-model ensemble models in the runoff prediction of two upstream and downstream reservoirs in a certain river. The results show that the proposed model exhibits excellent performance and adaptability in monthly runoff prediction, with an average RMSE reduction of 6.44% compared to traditional Stacking models. This provides a new research direction for the application of ensemble models in reservoir monthly runoff prediction.

With global warming and intensified human activities, extreme convective precipitation has become one of the most frequent natural disasters. An accurate and reliable assessment of severe convective precipitation events can support social stability and economic development. In order to investigate the accuracy enhancement methods and data fusion strategies for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events, this study is driven by the horizontal reflectance factor (Z_H) and differential reflectance (Z_DR) of the dual-polarization radar. This research work utilizes microphysical information of convective storms provided by radar variables to construct the precipitation event assessment model. Considering the problems of high dimensionality of variable data and low computational efficiency, this study proposes a dual-polarization radar echo-data-layering strategy. Combined with the results of mutual information (MI), this study constructs Bayes–Kalman filter (KF) models (RF, SVR, GRU, LSTM) for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events. Finally, this study comparatively analyzes the evaluation effectiveness and computational efficiency of different models. The results show that the data-layering strategy is able to reduce the data dimensions of 256 × 256 × 34,978 to 5 × 2213, which greatly improves the computational efficiency. In addition, the correlation coefficient of interval III–V calibration period is increased to 0.9, and the overall assessment accuracy of the model is good. Among them, the Bayes–KF-LSTM model has the best assessment effect, and the Bayes–KF-RF has the highest computational efficiency. Further, five typical precipitation events are selected for validation in this study. The stratified precipitation dataset agrees well with the near-surface precipitation, and the model’s assessment values are close to the observed values. This study completely utilizes the microphysical information offered by dual-polarized radar Z_H and Z_DR in precipitation event assessment, which provides a wide range of application possibilities for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events.

Accurate and reliable short-term electricity load forecasting plays an important role in ensuring the healthy operation of the power grid and promoting sustainable socio-economic development. This research proposes a novel hybrid load probability prediction model, BiGRU-GAM-GPR, which combines a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU), global attention mechanism (GAM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). Firstly, BiGRU-GAM is used to predict the sequence to obtain preliminary prediction results, and then these results are input into GPR to obtain more accurate deterministic and probabilistic prediction results. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, a series of experiments are conducted on three real-world power load datasets. The experimental results show the following: (1) BiGRU has the optimal forecasting ability compared with the other basic models. (2) The global attention mechanism improves the model’s perception ability of the spatial features of multi-feature sequences and plays a positive role in enhancing the model’s forecasting performance. (3) The GPR model further explores the internal relationships of the data by expanding the deterministic prediction results into probabilistic results, thus improving the forecasting effect. (4) The proposed model BiGRU-GAM-GPR exhibits the best performance in both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and has good robustness.