Accurate simulation of snow cover process is of great significance to the study of climate change and the water cycle. In our study, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) and ERA-Interim were used as driving data to simulate the dynamic changes in snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Irtysh River Basin from 2000 to 2018 using the Noah-MP land surface model, and the simulation results were compared with the gridded dataset of snow depth at Chinese meteorological stations (GDSD), the long-term series of daily snow depth dataset in China (LSD), and China’s daily snow depth and snow water equivalent products (CSS). Before the simulation, we compared the combinations of four parameterizations schemes of Noah-MP model at the Kuwei site. The results show that the rainfall and snowfall (SNF) scheme mainly affects the snow accumulation process, while the surface layer drag coefficient (SFC), snow/soil temperature time (STC), and snow surface albedo (ALB) schemes mainly affect the melting process. The effect of STC on the simulation results was much higher than the other three schemes; when STC uses a fully implicit scheme, the error of simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent is much greater than that of a semi-implicit scheme. At the basin scale, the accuracy of snow depth modeled by using CMFD and ERA-Interim is higher than LSD and CSS snow depth based on microwave remote sensing. In years with high snow cover, LSD and CSS snow depth data are seriously underestimated. According to the results of model simulation, it is concluded that the snow depth and snow water equivalent in the north of the basin are higher than those in the south. The average snow depth, snow water equivalent, snow days, and the start time of snow accumulation (STSA) in the basin did not change significantly during the study period, but the end time of snow melting was significantly advanced.

In summary, near-surface icing risk in complex alpine terrain is jointly controlled by freezing conditions, moisture supply, freeze–thaw transitions, and topographic energy processes. Traditional approaches relying on sparse station data or single temperature thresholds fail to capture spatial heterogeneity, and frequent cloud cover together with topographic errors severely limit the application of thermal infrared remote sensing. Taking the area along the Duku Highway in the Tianshan Mountains as the study region, a daily icing risk assessment framework at 250 m resolution was constructed using multi-source remote sensing, ERA5-Land reanalysis data, topographic correction, and an energy–moisture dual-constrained model. A diurnal temperature cycle model, the CAP index, and physics-constrained machine learning were integrated to reconstruct the daily minimum land surface temperature ($T_{s,\mathrm{m}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}}$) at 250 m resolution under all weather conditions. A probabilistic two-tier risk assessment model was then established by incorporating moisture, topography, and freeze–thaw transitions. The results show that high-risk zones occur primarily in valleys and topographically constrained corridors rather than the coldest elevations. Validation against Landsat LST (r = 0.886) and the Bayanbulak station (bias −0.76 °C, RMSE 5.62 °C, r = 0.91) confirms spatial and seasonal accuracy. Sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses indicate the RiskScore is mainly controlled by the low-temperature weight, while upstream parameters are less influential. The framework is best applied as a screening and early-warning product to identify sub-kilometer potential icing corridors, complementing point measurements and short-range forecasts.