The great current challenge for the conservation and use of natural resources refers to global climate change, because of its impacts felt in different intensities at global, regional, and local spatial scales. Within the system of environmental protection areas in Brazil, the extractive reserves ensure the sustainable use of natural resources by traditional populations, thus maintaining the cultural and biological aspects of a region. Such populations, being in close management of the surrounding environments, tend to perceive changes in ecological processes that many need for their livelihoods. The use of this perception of local populations in conjunction with academic research evidence has a high potential to allow a whole and systemic view of possible changes in natural phenomena. This study developed an integrated analysis of scientific evidence and local perceptions to understand the variation of precipitation in a community inserted in an extractive reserve in the eastern Amazon. We used 30 years of precipitation data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, the Southern Oscillation Index - SOI, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode Index - AMM. Furthermore, we applied a form to measure the population's perception of possible changes in rainfall cycles in the region. The meteorological data indicate that the region of the community has been presenting a rainfall reduction; however, people in the community do not perceive this trend. Although it is public knowledge that the global climate is undergoing changes, a fact noted after the integrating analysis of scientific evidence with local knowledge in Resexmar Soure is that the perceptions of traditional populations often focus on smaller temporal and spatial scale visions.

O presente trabalho considera as relações entre a sazonalidade climática regional e a produção de frutos de açaí representativa de 30 municípios do Estado do Pará durante um período de 9 anos (2003 a 2011). Os testes paramétricos de correlação de Pearson determinaram que o regime do período chuvoso (meses de Dezembro a Maio) associa-se a alta produtividade de frutos de açaí, enquanto que o período seco (Junho a Novembro) relaciona-se com baixa produtividade de frutos de açaí. Além disso, foram investigadas as estimativas climáticas na produção de frutos de açaí levando em conta os cenários futuros a partir dos resultados de um modelo de regressão linear tendo como variáveis preditoras: precipitação, temperatura e umidade atmosférica, fornecidos pelo modelo global HadGEM2 do IPCC (1979-2032), observou-se que a produtividade de frutos de açaí (kg/ha) tende sofrer mudanças significativas nos próximos 15 anos (2017 a 2032). A B S T R A C TThe present work considers the relationship between the regional climatic seasonality and açaí fruits production, representative of 30 cities of Pará during a period of 9 years (2003 to 2011). The Parametric tests of Pearson correlations determined such as the regime of rainy period (months of December to May) is associated to the high productivity of açaí fruits, while the regime of dry period (June to November) relates with low productivity of açaí fruits. Moreover, it was investigated the climatic estimative on production of açaí fruits taking into account the future scenarios. Through the results of a linear regression model using as predictors variables: precipitation, temperature and humidity provided by HadGEM2 global model of IPCC (1979-2032), it is observed that the productivity of açaí fruits (kg/ha) tend to suffer significative changes in the next 15 years (2017 to 2032).Keywords: climatology, future scenarios, seasonality, regression, Euterpe oleracea Mart.

Based on statistical analyses applied to official data from the Digital Atlas of Disasters in Brazil over the last 25 years, we evidenced a consistent intensification in the annual occurrence of natural disasters in the state of Pará, located in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. The quantitative comparison between the averages of the most intense period of disasters (2017 to 2023) and the earlier years (1999 to 2016) revealed a remarkable percentage increase of 473%. Approximately 81% of the state’s municipalities were affected, as indicated by disaster mapping. A clear seasonal pattern was observed, with Hydrological disasters (Inundations, Flash floods, and Heavy rainfall) peaking between February and May, while Climatological disasters (Droughts and Forest fires) were most frequent from August to October. The catastrophic impacts on people and the economy were documented, showing a significant rise in the number of homeless individuals and those directly affected, alongside considerable material damage and economic losses for both the public and private sectors. Furthermore, we conducted a comprehensive composite analysis on the tropical ocean–atmosphere dynamic structure that elucidated the various triggering mechanisms of disasters arising from Inundations, Droughts, and Forest fires (on seasonal scale), and Flash floods and Heavy rainfall (on sub-monthly scale) in Pará. The detailed characterization of disasters on a municipal scale is relevant in terms of the scientific contribution applied to the strategic decision-making, planning, and implementation of public policies aimed at early risk management (rather than post-disaster response), which is critical for safeguarding human well-being and strengthening the resilience of Amazonian communities vulnerable to climate change.

This research aimed to analyze the relationship between deforestation (DFT) and climatic variables during the rainy (CHU+) and less-rainy (CHU−) seasons in the Tapajós River basin. Data were sourced from multiple institutions, including the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), PRODES Program (Monitoring of Brazilian Amazon Deforestation Project), National Water Agency (ANA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NCEP/NOAA). The study assessed anomalies (ANOM) in maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN) and precipitation (PREC) over three years without the occurrence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) atmospheric–oceanic phenomenon. It also examined areas with higher DFT density using the Kernel methodology and analyzed the correlation between DFT and climatic variables. Additionally, it assessed trends using the Mann–Kendall technique for both climatic and environmental data. The results revealed significant ANOM in TEMP and PREC. In PREC, the highest values of ANOM were negative in CHU+. Regarding temperature, the most significant values were positive ANOM in the south, southwest and northwestern regions of the basin. Concerning DFT density, data showed that the highest concentration was of medium density, primarily along the highways. The most significant correlations were found between DFT and TEMP during the CHU− season in the Middle and Lower Tapajós sub-basins, regions where the forest still exhibits more preserved characteristics. Furthermore, the study identified a positive trend in TEMP and a negative trend in PREC.

This study presents an integrated assessment of four decades (1985–2023) of environmental and climate alterations in the principal metropolitan conurbation of the eastern Brazilian Amazon, encompassing Belém and its adjacent municipalities. By combining high-resolution land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics with in situ meteorological data, including understudied elements, such as relative humidity (RH) and wind speed, and satellite-derived precipitation estimates (CHIRPS v3), we advance the scientific understanding of regional climate trends. Our results document significant climate shifts, including pronounced dry-season warming (+1.5 °C), atmospheric drying (−4% in RH), attenuated wind patterns (−0.4 m s⁻¹), and altered precipitation regimes, which exhibit strong spatiotemporal coupling with extensive forest loss (−20%) and rapid urban expansion (+84%) between 1985 and 2023. Multivariate analyses reveal that these land–climate interactions are strongest during the dry regime, underscoring the role of surface–atmosphere feedbacks in amplifying regional changes. Comparative analysis of past (1980–1999) and present (2005–2024) decades demonstrates a marked intensification in the frequency and magnitude of extreme seasonal climate events. These findings elucidate a critical feedback mechanism that exacerbates climate risks in tropical urban areas. Consequently, we argue that mitigation public policies must prioritize the strict conservation of peri-urban forest fragments (vital for moisture recycling and local climate regulation) and the strategic implementation of green infrastructure aligned with prevailing wind patterns to enhance thermal comfort and resilience to hydrological extremes.

Climate change is expected to significantly alter surface air temperature and precipitation regimes across the Amazon Basin, with direct implications for agroforestry systems and climate-sensitive perennial crops. This study projects the impacts of anthropogenic global warming on the habitat suitability of Theobroma grandiflorum (cupuaçu), a keystone species for Amazonian agroforestry, local livelihoods, and the bioeconomy. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) framework, we applied multiple algorithms and two CMIP6 global climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near-future (2021–2040) and far-future (2061–2080). Contrary to the range contractions projected for many Amazonian endemics, our ensemble projections reveal a consistent trend of expanding climatically suitable area, primarily into adjacent ecological transition zones. This expansion is driven largely by basin-wide increases in mean annual temperature, the most influential predictor in our modeling study. Quantitatively, we project a net habitat expansion of 32.2% (415,114 km²) under high-concordance future scenarios. A core climate refuge of 955,570 km², representing 74.2% of the current suitable range, is identified as a high priority for in situ conservation. Conversely, approximately 25.8% of the current range (331,919 km²) may become climatically unsuitable, particularly in parts of the western Amazon. These findings suggest that reducing thermal constraints in currently marginal areas could open opportunities for integrating cupuaçu into climate-resilient agroforestry systems beyond its present distribution. Such heterogeneous responses of Amazonian agroforestry species to climate change highlight the importance of incorporating species-specific climate sensitivities into adaptation planning, land-use strategies, and climate-resilient bioeconomy policies under future warming scenarios.