The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

Runoff formation is a complex meteorological-hydrological process impacted by many factors, especially in the inland river basin. In this study, long-term (1960–2015) river runoff and climate data in the Arys and Keles River watersheds (Kazakhstan) were gathered to analyze the impacts of climate variation and human activity on runoff. The non-parametric Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and change points in the time data series. It was found that both watersheds had significant upward trends in temperature and potential evapotranspiration data, and insignificant upward trends in the runoff. Change points in annual runoff were identified around the year 1973. The hydrological sensitivity method was employed to evaluate the impacts of climate variation and human activity on mean annual runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. It was found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to human activity, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59% to 99%. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development and water management of the regional water resources.

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification.

Soil degradation is increasing in Kazakhstan, leading to severe losses in land productivity. The Almaty region, the country’s leading agricultural and industrial province, is among the most affected areas. The objective of this study is to evaluate, for the first time, the applicability of the revised model of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) for estimating the rate of soil erosion and identifying areas susceptible to soil erosion in the Almaty region. The revised USLE (RUSLE) factors, including rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, and steepness, were represented using data on soil, topography, and land use/vegetation cover from the region. Using the RUSLE model’s algorithms, we generated an erosion risk map, emphasizing areas with a high potential for erosion. The results show higher soil erosion rates in agricultural areas with steep slopes and inadequate environmental practices – annual soil losses in the region are as high as 26,279 t/ha/year in high-risk areas. On average, approximately 88% of the region’s territory loses up to 103 t/ha/year, while 9% loses about three times as much. Such potential soil erosion risks warrant the implementation of efficient soil conservation strategies in the region to protect soils, ensure desired agricultural productivity, and support the journey in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.

Являясь стратегически важным и незаменимым экономическим ресурсом, сегодня сельскохозяйственные угодья являются основным источником сырья для агропромышленного комплекса. Эти особенности налагают определенные обязательства на государство и землепользователей по сохранению основной ценности этой категории земель - ее плодородия. Учитывая, что Алматинская область занимает важное место в сфере сельского хозяйства страны, сохранение и эффективное использование плодородия земель сельскохозяйственного назначения в обеспечении продовольствием населения на территории всегда остается актуальным вопросом. Сокращение использования сельскохозяйственных угодий может привести к возникновению негативных процессов и будет способствовать снижению плодородия в будущем, исключению сельхозугодий из интенсивного сельскохозяйственного оборота. В статье дана оценка состояния почв сельскохозяйственных угодий Алматинской области на основе глобальной системы цифрового картографирования почв с использованием ГИС технологии, а также рассмотрены вопросы улучшения рационального использования сельскохозяйственных угодий в регионе. В частности, карты степени плотности почвы, содержания органического углерода в почве, кислотности и характеристик распределения чернозема на данной территории были разработаны с использованием ГИС технологий и на основе данных цифровой модели рельефа, в результате, которого земли района области классифицированы на три группы и представлена динамика удельного веса земель.