As important nodes in the air transport system, it is of great significance for airports to achieve the carbon-peaking goal before 2030 under the target of peaking carbon emissions in China’s civil aviation industry. However, it remains unknown whether airports will be able to realize this ambitious goal due to a variety of uncertain factors, such as the social economy, epidemic impact, and emission reduction measures. According to the possibilities of uncertain factors, 12 uncertain scenarios were constructed. Using the case of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN), this study predicted medium- and long-term carbon emission trends under 12 uncertain scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Furthermore, the effects of carbon abatement measures and emission reduction responsibilities were analyzed. The results show that CAN cannot guarantee that it will realize the goal under the established abatement policy. If socioeconomic development is rapid, carbon emissions will peak at about 90 kt tons in 2030, and if socioeconomic development is slow, it will plateau at about 1 million tons between 2030 and 2035. What is more, airlines bear the greatest responsibility for reducing emissions, and technological progress measures have the highest abatement potential. This study provides decision support for airport stakeholders in abatement work so as to ensure that airports can achieve the carbon-peaking goal.

Traditional airport development planning often overlooks an in-depth consideration of the airport operation life cycle, which frequently causes deviations from planned objectives during operation. This paper presents a framework for predicting and segmenting the airport operation life cycle by integrating the dynamic characteristics of the System Dynamics (SD) model with the static properties of Logistic modeling to examine the development trajectory of airport operations. The influencing factors in this model are selected across three levels: airport, city, and macro-environment. A system dynamics model of airport operation is constructed using causal loop diagrams and system flow diagrams. Using Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) as a case study, the airport’s operational capacity from 2005 to 2035 is predicted through SD simulation. Subsequently, the airport operation life cycle from 2005 to 2050 is forecasted and segmented using Logistic modeling. The results indicate that, under the standard scenario, CAN’s operational capacity experiences two declines in 2016 and 2020, attributed to airport construction and emergencies. Logistic modeling identifies three distinct life cycle phases in the airport’s operation. Furthermore, by comparing various airport operation scenarios, the analysis reveals that fluctuations in the city economy significantly impact the airport’s operational system without altering its overall development trajectory. In contrast, the occurrence of emergencies can substantially modify the airport operation life cycle.