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Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés
School of Aerospace Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Plaza Cardenal Cisneros N 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain

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Journal article
Published: 10 February 2021 in Applied Sciences
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Air transport is considered to be the safest mode of mass transportation. Air traffic management (ATM) systems constitute one of the fundamental pillars that contribute to these high levels of safety. In this paper we wish to answer two questions: (i) What is the underlying safety level of ATM systems in Europe? and (ii) What is the dispersion, that is, how far does each ATM service provider deviate from this underlying safety level? To do this, we develop four hierarchical Bayesian inference models that allow us to infer and predict the common rate of occurrence of SMIs, as well as the specific rates of occurrence for each air navigation service provider (ANSP). This study shows the usefulness of hierarchical structures when it comes to obtaining parameters that enable risk to be quantified effectively. The models developed have been found to be useful in explaining and predicting the safety performance of 29 European ATM systems with common regulations and work procedures, but with different circumstances and numbers of aircraft, each managing traffic of differing complexity.

ACS Style

Rosa Valdés; Victor Comendador. Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Estimate the Number of Losses of Separation between Aircraft in Flight. Applied Sciences 2021, 11, 1600 .

AMA Style

Rosa Valdés, Victor Comendador. Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Estimate the Number of Losses of Separation between Aircraft in Flight. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11 (4):1600.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Valdés; Victor Comendador. 2021. "Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Estimate the Number of Losses of Separation between Aircraft in Flight." Applied Sciences 11, no. 4: 1600.

Journal article
Published: 21 January 2021 in Sustainability
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Aviation emissions from 2016 to 2050 could consume between 12% and 27% of the remaining carbon budget to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. Consequently, aviation is being challenged to immediately start to reduce its in-sector emissions, then sharply reduce its CO2 emissions and fully decarbonize toward the second half of this century. Among the analyses carried out within the Horizon 2020 project PARE—Perspectives for Aeronautical Research in Europe, this paper tackles the potential role of climate change levy schemes in achieving the ambitious objective of aviation decarbonization by the year 2050.

ACS Style

Rosa Valdés; Victor Comendador; Luis Campos. How Much Can Carbon Taxes Contribute to Aviation Decarbonization by 2050. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1086 .

AMA Style

Rosa Valdés, Victor Comendador, Luis Campos. How Much Can Carbon Taxes Contribute to Aviation Decarbonization by 2050. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (3):1086.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Valdés; Victor Comendador; Luis Campos. 2021. "How Much Can Carbon Taxes Contribute to Aviation Decarbonization by 2050." Sustainability 13, no. 3: 1086.

Journal article
Published: 29 September 2020 in Journal of Air Transport Management
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Passengers go through different handling processes inside airport terminal buildings. The quality of these processes is usually measured by the time passengers require and by the level of comfort experienced by them. We present an analysis of behavioural patterns in queues at check-in desks and security controls, which are two of the most critical processes regarding passenger service. The passengers' flow is simulated to obtain queue lengths at one busy European airport between 2014 and 2016, supported by real flight data. Simulation is designed as a store-and forward cell-based system, whose parameters have been tuned and validated with real data from observations and empirical capacity and demand studies within the airport. Random Forest algorithms are then implemented to develop different models for each parameter prediction, after a data analysis stage based on statistical and visualization methods. Feature analysis techniques between dependent variables and the target outputs (queue lengths) determine which are the fundamental elements to explain queue behaviour and to predict target variables. We provide a method to forecast behavioural patterns at check-in desks and security controls, to help airport operators to implement adequate response policies. Queue behavioural patterns are captured by Machine Learning models, which can be used to offer improved passenger services (such as real-time predictions for expected waiting time at queues), or can be considered in a dynamic approach for terminal services design (as the entire progress of terminal handling depends on the stochastic behaviour of passengers). This could be a key tool for managing passengers demand and optimise the infrastructure's capacity through resource allocation.

ACS Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Alberto Fernández De Marcos; Javier A. Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Ángel París Loreiro. Queue behavioural patterns for passengers at airport terminals: A machine learning approach. Journal of Air Transport Management 2020, 90, 101940 .

AMA Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz, Alberto Fernández De Marcos, Javier A. Pérez-Castán, Fernando Gómez Comendador, Rosa Arnaldo Valdés, Ángel París Loreiro. Queue behavioural patterns for passengers at airport terminals: A machine learning approach. Journal of Air Transport Management. 2020; 90 ():101940.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Alberto Fernández De Marcos; Javier A. Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Ángel París Loreiro. 2020. "Queue behavioural patterns for passengers at airport terminals: A machine learning approach." Journal of Air Transport Management 90, no. : 101940.

Journal article
Published: 27 July 2020 in Applied Sciences
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This paper presents the results of applying the new mechanization of the Kalman filter (KF) algorithm using singular value decomposition (SVD). The proposed algorithm is useful in applications where the influence of round-off errors reduces the accuracy of the numerical solution of the associated Riccati equation. When the Riccati equation does not remain symmetric and positive definite, the fidelity of the solution can degrade to the point where it corrupts the Kalman gain, and it can corrupt the estimate. In this research, we design an adaptive KF implementation based on SVD, provide its derivation, and discuss the stability issues numerically. The filter is derived by substituting the SVD of the covariance matrix into the conventional discrete KF equations after its initial propagation, and an adaptive estimation of the covariance measurement matrix Rk is introduced. The results show that the algorithm is equivalent to current methods in terms of robustness, and it outperforms the estimation accuracy of the conventional Kalman filter, square root, and unit triangular matrix diagonal (UD) factorization methods under ill-conditioned and dynamic applications, and is applicable to most nonlinear systems. Four sample problems from different areas are presented for comparative study from an ill-conditioned sensitivity matrix, navigation with a dual-frequency Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, host vehicle dynamic models, and distance measuring equipment (DME) using simultaneous slant range measurements, performed with a conventional KF and SVD-based (K-SVD) filter.

ACS Style

Juan Bermúdez Ordoñez; Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Gómez Comendador. Engineering Applications of Adaptive Kalman Filtering Based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Applied Sciences 2020, 10, 5168 .

AMA Style

Juan Bermúdez Ordoñez, Rosa Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Gómez Comendador. Engineering Applications of Adaptive Kalman Filtering Based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Applied Sciences. 2020; 10 (15):5168.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Juan Bermúdez Ordoñez; Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Gómez Comendador. 2020. "Engineering Applications of Adaptive Kalman Filtering Based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)." Applied Sciences 10, no. 15: 5168.

Book chapter
Published: 18 March 2020 in Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management
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System safety assessment (SSA) has become a standard practice in air traffic management (ATM). System safety assessment aims, through a systematic and formal process, to detect, quantify, and diminish the derived risks and to guarantee that critical safety systems achieve the level of safety approved by the regulatory authorities. Verification of compliance with the established safety levels becomes the last but an essential part of the safety assurance process. This chapter provides a Bayesian inference methodology to assess and evaluate the compliance with the established safety levels under the presence of uncertainty in the assessment of systems performances.

ACS Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Luis Perez Sanz. Risk Assessment under Uncertainty. Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Luis Perez Sanz. Risk Assessment under Uncertainty. Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management. 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Luis Perez Sanz. 2020. "Risk Assessment under Uncertainty." Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 31 January 2020 in Energies
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Many civilian applications of commercial unmanned aircraft are being planned to operate in the years ahead. Several countries have developed their own framework to design the operation of unmanned aircraft and the different services that demand safe operation. This paper focuses on the European framework denoted as U-space which concludes with the joint integration of manned and unmanned aircraft in the airspace. U-space is a set of novel services and specific procedures designed to provide safe and efficient access into the airspace to the airspace users. U-space constitutes a management system to organise unmanned operations and provides relevant information to drone operators as well as manned aircraft, air navigation service providers and authorities. The understanding of associated hazards and risks to unmanned aircraft is a critical issue for their operation in complex and non-segregated airspaces. The safety assessment developed herein is crucial to identify safety indicators for U-space. In addition, the identification of safety indicators was used to identify gaps in U-spaces services that are not correctly covered by the U-space framework. Particularly, several safety indicators are identified that currently U-space services do not consider and can imply an increase in the operational risk of unmanned operations.

ACS Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Ana Belén Cardenas-Soria; Dominik Janisch; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés. Identification, Categorisation and Gaps of Safety Indicators for U-Space. Energies 2020, 13, 608 .

AMA Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán, Fernando Gómez Comendador, Ana Belén Cardenas-Soria, Dominik Janisch, Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés. Identification, Categorisation and Gaps of Safety Indicators for U-Space. Energies. 2020; 13 (3):608.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Ana Belén Cardenas-Soria; Dominik Janisch; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés. 2020. "Identification, Categorisation and Gaps of Safety Indicators for U-Space." Energies 13, no. 3: 608.

Journal article
Published: 30 January 2020 in Entropy
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The expected growth of air traffic in the following decades demands the implementation of new operational concepts to avoid current limitations of the air traffic management system. This paper focuses on the strategic conflict management for four-dimensional trajectories (4DT) in free-route airspace. 4DT has been proposed as the future operational concept to manage air traffic. Thus, aircraft must fulfil temporary restrictions at specific waypoints in the airspace based on time windows. Based on the temporary restrictions, a strategic conflict management method is proposed to calculate the conflict probability of an aircraft pair (that intersects in the air) and to calculate temporary-blocking windows that quantify the time span at which an aircraft cannot depart because one conflict could occur. This methodology was applied in a case-study for an aircraft pair, including the uncertainty associated with 4DT. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed to characterise the impact of wind conditions and speed control on the temporary-blocking windows. The results concluded that it is feasible to propose 4DT strategic de-confliction based on temporary-blocking windows. Although, uncertainty variables such as wind and speed control impact on the conflict probability and the size of the temporary-blocking windows.

ACS Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Luis Pérez Sanz; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; V. Fernando Gómez Comendador; Clemence Greatti; Lidia Serrano-Mira. Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace. Entropy 2020, 22, 159 .

AMA Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán, Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz, Luis Pérez Sanz, Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés, V. Fernando Gómez Comendador, Clemence Greatti, Lidia Serrano-Mira. Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace. Entropy. 2020; 22 (2):159.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Luis Pérez Sanz; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; V. Fernando Gómez Comendador; Clemence Greatti; Lidia Serrano-Mira. 2020. "Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace." Entropy 22, no. 2: 159.

Journal article
Published: 28 November 2019 in Entropy
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Heinrich’s pyramid theory is one of the most influential theories in accident and incident prevention, especially for industries with high safety requirements. Originally, this theory established a quantitative correlation between major injury accidents, minor injury accidents and no-injury accidents. Nowadays, researchers from different fields of engineering also apply this theory in establishing quantitatively the correlation between accidents and incidents. In this work, on the one hand, we have detected the applicability of this theory by studying incident reports of different severities occurred in air traffic management. On the other hand, we have deepened the analysis of this theory from a qualitative perspective. For this purpose, we have applied the convolution operator in identifying correlations between contributing causes to different incident severities, also known as precursors to accidents, and system failures. The results suggested that system failures are mechanisms by which the causes are manifested. In particular, the same underlying cause can be manifested through different failures which contribute to incidents with different severities. Finally, deriving from this result, an artificial neuronal network model is proposed to recognize future causes and their possible associated incident severities.

ACS Style

Schon Z. Y. Liang Cheng; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. Detection of Common Causes between Air Traffic Serious and Major Incidents in Applying the Convolution Operator to Heinrich Pyramid Theory. Entropy 2019, 21, 1166 .

AMA Style

Schon Z. Y. Liang Cheng, Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. Detection of Common Causes between Air Traffic Serious and Major Incidents in Applying the Convolution Operator to Heinrich Pyramid Theory. Entropy. 2019; 21 (12):1166.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Schon Z. Y. Liang Cheng; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. 2019. "Detection of Common Causes between Air Traffic Serious and Major Incidents in Applying the Convolution Operator to Heinrich Pyramid Theory." Entropy 21, no. 12: 1166.

Book chapter
Published: 06 November 2019 in Bayesian Networks - Advances and Novel Applications
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Most decisions in aviation regarding systems and operation are currently taken under uncertainty, relaying in limited measurable information, and with little assistance of formal methods and tools to help decision makers to cope with all those uncertainties. This chapter illustrates how Bayesian analysis can constitute a systematic approach for dealing with uncertainties in aviation and air transport. The chapter addresses the three main ways in which Bayesian networks are currently employed for scientific or regulatory decision-making purposes in the aviation industry, depending on the extent to which decision makers rely totally or partially on formal methods. These three alternatives are illustrated with three aviation case studies that reflect research work carried out by the authors.

ACS Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; V. Fernando Gómez Comendador; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Eduardo Sanchez Ayra; Javier Alberto Pérez Castán; Luis Perez Sanz. Bayesian Networks for Decision-Making and Causal Analysis under Uncertainty in Aviation. Bayesian Networks - Advances and Novel Applications 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, V. Fernando Gómez Comendador, Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz, Eduardo Sanchez Ayra, Javier Alberto Pérez Castán, Luis Perez Sanz. Bayesian Networks for Decision-Making and Causal Analysis under Uncertainty in Aviation. Bayesian Networks - Advances and Novel Applications. 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; V. Fernando Gómez Comendador; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Eduardo Sanchez Ayra; Javier Alberto Pérez Castán; Luis Perez Sanz. 2019. "Bayesian Networks for Decision-Making and Causal Analysis under Uncertainty in Aviation." Bayesian Networks - Advances and Novel Applications , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 26 July 2019 in Sustainability
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Airports around the world are more and more environmentally concerned, increasing their efforts in reducing aviation impacts by applying environmental management, certification systems, or other types of ecological rating systems to their infrastructures and operation. Especially relevant are the airports’ efforts to manage and reduce their CO2 emissions through Airport Carbon Accreditation, the efforts made by Eurocontrol to encourage collaborative environmental management, or the increasing numbers of airports worldwide that get their terminals certified according to several world-recognized Green Building Rating Standards (GBRS). However, although these standards are state-of-the-art sustainability valuation programs, none of them fully cover all the environmental impacts of aeronautical activity at an airport. This paper presents the results of an exploratory research where the use of a GBRS into a more holistic certification scheme for airports is discussed and areas of challenge are highlighted. The paper seeks to shed some light on the value of holistic approaches from the perspective of maximizing environmental management efficiency and effectiveness, the integration of actions of individual airport partners to potentially encourage greater coordination of efforts, the challenges of dealing with both construction and operational impacts within one scheme, and the accountability difficulties.

ACS Style

Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés; Bernard Lisker. A Holistic Approach to the Environmental Certification of Green Airports. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4043 .

AMA Style

Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés, Bernard Lisker. A Holistic Approach to the Environmental Certification of Green Airports. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (15):4043.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés; Bernard Lisker. 2019. "A Holistic Approach to the Environmental Certification of Green Airports." Sustainability 11, no. 15: 4043.

Journal article
Published: 28 June 2019 in Safety
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Remotely-piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) present interesting and complex challenges for air traffic management. One of the most critical aspects of the integration of RPASs in non-segregated airspace is safety assessments. This paper lays out a methodology for estimating the minimum protection distance (MPD) that is required to avoid potential conflicts between RPASs and conventional aircraft. The MPD determines the final moment that air traffic control may instruct a RPAS to start climbing with a fixed rate of climb (ROC) to avoid separation minima infringement. The methodology sets out a conflict-resolution algorithm to estimate the MPD. It also models the impact of communication, navigation, and surveillance requirements on the MPD. The main difference between RPASs and conventional aircraft is that the former needs additional communication between the RPAS and pilot in the form of a required Comand and Control link performance (RLP). Finally, the authors carried out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the value of the MPD only for the head-on encounter, which is the worst scenario. The results showed that the main factors affecting the MPD were RLP and ROC. By increasing RLP and decreasing ROC it was possible to reduce the MPD from 28 to 17 nautical miles; however, the variation in the MPD was not linear.

ACS Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. ATC Separation Assurance for RPASs and Conventional Aircraft in En-Route Airspace. Safety 2019, 5, 41 .

AMA Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán, Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz, Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. ATC Separation Assurance for RPASs and Conventional Aircraft in En-Route Airspace. Safety. 2019; 5 (3):41.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. 2019. "ATC Separation Assurance for RPASs and Conventional Aircraft in En-Route Airspace." Safety 5, no. 3: 41.

Journal article
Published: 13 May 2019 in Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology
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PurposeThe use of the 4D trajectory operational concept in the future air traffic management (ATM) system will require the aircraft to meet very accurately an arrival time over a designated checkpoint. To do this, time intervals known as time windows (TW) are defined. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to characterise these TWs and to manage the uncertainty associated with the evolution of 4D trajectories.Design/methodology/approach4D trajectories are modelled using a point mass model and EUROCONTROL’s BADA methodology. The authors stochastically evaluate the variability of the parameters that influence 4D trajectories using Monte Carlo simulation. This enables the authors to delimit TWs for several checkpoints. Finally, the authors set out a causal model, based on a Bayesian network approach, to evaluate the impact of variations in fundamental parameters at the chosen checkpoints.FindingsThe initial results show that the proposed TW model limits the deviation in time to less than 27 s at the checkpoints of an en-route segment (300 NM).Practical implicationsThe objective of new trajectory-based operations is to efficiently and strategically manage the expected increase in air traffic volumes and to apply tactical interventions as a last resort only. We need new tools to support 4D trajectory management functions such as strategic and collaborative planning. The authors propose a novel approach for to ensure aircraft punctuality.Originality/valueThe main contribution of the paper is the development of a model to deal with uncertainty and to increase predictability in 4D trajectories, which are key elements of the future airspace operational environment.

ACS Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Pablo González García; Mar Najar Godoy Najar Godoy. 4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 2019, 91, 761 -782.

AMA Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz, Fernando Gómez Comendador, Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés, Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán, Pablo González García, Mar Najar Godoy Najar Godoy. 4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology. 2019; 91 (5):761-782.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Pablo González García; Mar Najar Godoy Najar Godoy. 2019. "4D-trajectory time windows: definition and uncertainty management." Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 91, no. 5: 761-782.

Journal article
Published: 24 April 2019 in Energies
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The most relevant SESAR 2020 solutions dealing with future Capacity Management processes are Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric ATC (FCA). Both concepts, DAC and FCA, rely on traffic flow complexity assessment. For this reason, complexity assessments processes, methods and metrics, become one of the main constraints to deal with the growing demand and increasing airspace capacity. The aim of this work is to identify the influence of trajectories’ uncertainty in the quality of the predictions of complexity of traffic demand and the effectiveness of Demand Capacity Balance (DCB) airspace management processes, in order to overcome the limitations of existing complexity assessment approaches to support Capacity Management processes in a Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) environment. This paper presents research conducted within COTTON project, sponsored by the SESAR Joint Undertaking and EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program. The main objective is to deliver innovative solutions to maximize the performance of the Capacity Management procedures based on information in a TBO environment.

ACS Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdes; Andrija Vidosavljevic; Marta Sanchez Cidoncha; Shutao Zheng; Gomez Comendador; Arnaldo Valdés; Sanchez Cidoncha. Impact of Trajectories’ Uncertainty in Existing ATC Complexity Methodologies and Metrics for DAC and FCA SESAR Concepts. Energies 2019, 12, 1559 .

AMA Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador, Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdes, Andrija Vidosavljevic, Marta Sanchez Cidoncha, Shutao Zheng, Gomez Comendador, Arnaldo Valdés, Sanchez Cidoncha. Impact of Trajectories’ Uncertainty in Existing ATC Complexity Methodologies and Metrics for DAC and FCA SESAR Concepts. Energies. 2019; 12 (8):1559.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdes; Andrija Vidosavljevic; Marta Sanchez Cidoncha; Shutao Zheng; Gomez Comendador; Arnaldo Valdés; Sanchez Cidoncha. 2019. "Impact of Trajectories’ Uncertainty in Existing ATC Complexity Methodologies and Metrics for DAC and FCA SESAR Concepts." Energies 12, no. 8: 1559.

Journal article
Published: 08 April 2019 in Entropy
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Demand & Capacity Management solutions are key SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) research projects to adapt future airspace to the expected high air traffic growth in a Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) environment. These solutions rely on processes, methods and metrics regarding the complexity assessment of traffic flows. However, current complexity methodologies and metrics do not properly take into account the impact of trajectories’ uncertainty to the quality of complexity predictions of air traffic demand. This paper proposes the development of several Bayesian network (BN) models to identify the impacts of TBO uncertainties to the quality of the predictions of complexity of air traffic demand for two particular Demand Capacity Balance (DCB) solutions developed by SESAR 2020, i.e., Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric Air Traffic Control (FCA). In total, seven BN models are elicited covering each concept at different time horizons. The models allow evaluating the influence of the “complexity generators” in the “complexity metrics”. Moreover, when the required level for the uncertainty of complexity is set, the networks allow identifying by how much uncertainty of the input variables should improve.

ACS Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Manuel Villegas Diaz; Eva Puntero Parla; Danlin Zheng. Bayesian Network Modelling of ATC Complexity Metrics for Future SESAR Demand and Capacity Balance Solutions. Entropy 2019, 21, 379 .

AMA Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador, Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Manuel Villegas Diaz, Eva Puntero Parla, Danlin Zheng. Bayesian Network Modelling of ATC Complexity Metrics for Future SESAR Demand and Capacity Balance Solutions. Entropy. 2019; 21 (4):379.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Manuel Villegas Diaz; Eva Puntero Parla; Danlin Zheng. 2019. "Bayesian Network Modelling of ATC Complexity Metrics for Future SESAR Demand and Capacity Balance Solutions." Entropy 21, no. 4: 379.

Journal article
Published: 07 April 2019 in Sustainability
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In the last 40 years, the aeronautical industry has managed to move from a specialized sector to a worldwide leading industry. Companies, governments and associations all over the world acknowledge the importance of the aviation industry in supporting global development and the economy. However, aviation will be facing new challenges related to sustainability and performance in a technological environment in evolution. To succeed, the aeronautical industry must keep innovation as one of its main assets. It must master a wide range of technologies and then collaborate to integrate them into an aircraft design and development program. A collaborative approach to innovation is key to achieve these goals. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the structure of technological innovation networks in the aviation industry and to characterize the map of the “Aviation Technology Space”. Two different approaches and methods are used. In one approach, we performed a bibliometric network analysis of aviation research scientific publications using a keyword co-occurrence analysis method to map the aerospace collaboration structures. Complementarily, we performed a patent analysis to evaluate the innovation capacity of the aviation industry in the cutting-edge technologies previously identified. From the results of this analysis, the paper provides recommendations for future innovation and research policies to allow the sector to fulfill the demanding goals by the year 2050.

ACS Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Serhat Burmaoglu; Vincenzo Tucci; Luiz Manuel Braga Da Costa Campos; Lucia Mattera; Víctor Fernando Gomez Comendador. Flight Path 2050 and ACARE Goals for Maintaining and Extending Industrial Leadership in Aviation: A Map of the Aviation Technology Space. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2065 .

AMA Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Serhat Burmaoglu, Vincenzo Tucci, Luiz Manuel Braga Da Costa Campos, Lucia Mattera, Víctor Fernando Gomez Comendador. Flight Path 2050 and ACARE Goals for Maintaining and Extending Industrial Leadership in Aviation: A Map of the Aviation Technology Space. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (7):2065.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Serhat Burmaoglu; Vincenzo Tucci; Luiz Manuel Braga Da Costa Campos; Lucia Mattera; Víctor Fernando Gomez Comendador. 2019. "Flight Path 2050 and ACARE Goals for Maintaining and Extending Industrial Leadership in Aviation: A Map of the Aviation Technology Space." Sustainability 11, no. 7: 2065.

Journal article
Published: 04 April 2019 in Symmetry
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This paper aims to present the application of a fishbone sequential diagram in air traffic management (ATM) incident investigations performing as a key connection between safety occurrence analysis methodology (SOAM) and accident/incident data reporting (ADREP) approaches. SOAM analysis is focused on organizational cause detection; nevertheless, this detection of individual causes from a complete incident scenario presents a complex analysis, and even more, the chronological relationship between causes, which is lacking in SOAM, should be tracked for post-investigation analysis. The conventional fishbone diagram is useful for failure cause classification; however, we consider that this technique can also show its potential to establish temporal dependencies between causes, which are categorized and registered with ADREP taxonomy for future database creation. A loss of separation incident that occurred in the Edmonton area (Canada) is used as a case study to illustrate this methodology as well as the whole analysis process.

ACS Style

Schon Z.Y. Liang Cheng; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. A Case Study of Fishbone Sequential Diagram Application and ADREP Taxonomy Codification in Conventional ATM Incident Investigation. Symmetry 2019, 11, 491 .

AMA Style

Schon Z.Y. Liang Cheng, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. A Case Study of Fishbone Sequential Diagram Application and ADREP Taxonomy Codification in Conventional ATM Incident Investigation. Symmetry. 2019; 11 (4):491.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Schon Z.Y. Liang Cheng; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gómez Comendador; Francisco Javier Sáez Nieto. 2019. "A Case Study of Fishbone Sequential Diagram Application and ADREP Taxonomy Codification in Conventional ATM Incident Investigation." Symmetry 11, no. 4: 491.

Journal article
Published: 26 March 2019 in Safety Science
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System Safety Assessment is an integral part of the design and operation of aviation and Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. The aim of the System Safety Assessment is to identify, quantify and mitigate any and all risks; and to ensure that the system complies with the safety levels established by the regulatory authority. This paper presents an integrated methodology, based on Bayesian inference, for assessing and evaluating compliance with system safety requirements when there is uncertainty regarding the safety performance of ATM systems. The study constructs a Bayesian framework that reformulates the Safety Compliance Assessment as decision making under uncertainty. This framework addresses the main limitations of the System Safety Assessment carried out by Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs). Specifically, it:

ACS Style

Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Luis Perez Sanz; Francisco Javier Saez Nieto; Eduardo Sanchez Aira. Bayesian inference in Safety Compliance Assessment under conditions of uncertainty for ANS providers. Safety Science 2019, 116, 183 -195.

AMA Style

Rosa Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador, Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán, Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz, Luis Perez Sanz, Francisco Javier Saez Nieto, Eduardo Sanchez Aira. Bayesian inference in Safety Compliance Assessment under conditions of uncertainty for ANS providers. Safety Science. 2019; 116 ():183-195.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Luis Perez Sanz; Francisco Javier Saez Nieto; Eduardo Sanchez Aira. 2019. "Bayesian inference in Safety Compliance Assessment under conditions of uncertainty for ANS providers." Safety Science 116, no. : 183-195.

Research article
Published: 11 February 2019 in International Journal of Aerospace Engineering
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Performing Continuous Climb Operation (CCO) procedures enable the reduction of the environmental footprint and the improvement of the trajectory efficiency when individually operated. However, its operation may affect negatively the overall operational efficiency at Terminal Manoeuvring Areas (TMAs). The estimation of capacity is a matter of paramount importance to all airport planning and analyzing the capacity effects of this particular operational technique on a certain scenario will definitely help on evaluating its potential applicability. In this paper, departure runway capacity at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas airport was operationally evaluated when introducing CCOs. The considered trajectories consisted of multiobjective optimized CCOs based on the optimal control theory, using the pseudospectral direct numerical method. These scenarios allowed addressing of the incremental variations of CCOs versus conventional departures, through fast time simulation, with the objective to assess the effects on the operations.

ACS Style

Manuel Villegas Díaz; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Javier García-Heras Carretero; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. Analyzing the Departure Runway Capacity Effects of Integrating Optimized Continuous Climb Operations. International Journal of Aerospace Engineering 2019, 2019, 1 -10.

AMA Style

Manuel Villegas Díaz, Fernando Gómez Comendador, Javier García-Heras Carretero, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. Analyzing the Departure Runway Capacity Effects of Integrating Optimized Continuous Climb Operations. International Journal of Aerospace Engineering. 2019; 2019 ():1-10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Manuel Villegas Díaz; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Javier García-Heras Carretero; Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés. 2019. "Analyzing the Departure Runway Capacity Effects of Integrating Optimized Continuous Climb Operations." International Journal of Aerospace Engineering 2019, no. : 1-10.

Journal article
Published: 04 February 2019 in Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on the development of conflict-resolution algorithms between Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) and conventional aircraft. The goal of the conflict-resolution algorithm is to estimate the minimum protection distance (MPD) which is required to avoid a potential conflict. Design/methodology/approach The conflict-resolution algorithms calculate the last location at which an RPAS must start climbing to avoid a separation minima infringement. The RPAS maneuvers to prevent the conventional aircraft based on the kinematic equations. The approach selects two parameters to model the conflict-geometry: the path-intersection angle and the Rate of Climb (ROCD). Findings Results confirmed that the aircraft pair flying in opposition was the worst scenario because the MPD reached its maximum value. The best value of the MPD is about 12 Nautical Miles to ensure a safe resolution of a potential conflict. Besides, variations of the ROCD concluded that the relation between the ROCD and the MPD is not proportional. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation is that the conflict-resolution algorithms are designed in a theoretical framework without bearing in mind other factors such as communications, navigation capacity, wind and pilot errors among others. Further work should introduce these concepts to determine how the MPD varies and affects air traffic safety. Moreover, the relation between an ROCD requirement and the MPD will have an impact on regulations. Practical implications The non-linear relation between the MPD and the ROCD could be the pillar to define a standardized MPD in the future for RPAS systematic integration. To accomplish this standard, RPAS could have to fulfil a requirement of minimum ROCD until a specified flight level. Originality/value This paper is the first approach to quantify the Minimum Protection Distance between RPAS and conventional aircraft, and it can serve the aeronautical community to define new navigation requirements for RPAS.

ACS Style

Javier A. Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; Jaime Torrecilla. Conflict-resolution algorithms for RPAS in non-segregated airspace. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 2019, 91, 366 -372.

AMA Style

Javier A. Pérez-Castán, Fernando Gómez Comendador, Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz, Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés, Jaime Torrecilla. Conflict-resolution algorithms for RPAS in non-segregated airspace. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology. 2019; 91 (2):366-372.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Javier A. Pérez-Castán; Fernando Gómez Comendador; Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz; Rosa M. Arnaldo Valdés; Jaime Torrecilla. 2019. "Conflict-resolution algorithms for RPAS in non-segregated airspace." Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 91, no. 2: 366-372.

Journal article
Published: 02 February 2019 in Reliability Engineering & System Safety
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The occurrence of Losses Of Separation between aircraft in an airspace that could lead to Mid Air Collisions (MAC) is of major concern to Air Traffic Management. This paper uses an innovative approach to develop Safety Performance Functions to predict the occurrence of losses of separation. This will improve the safety conditions under which airlines operate. A data driven approach is used to characterise the Losses Of Separation between aircraft as count data with an excess of zeros and over dispersion. Subsequently, the relationships between the number of aircraft conflicts in a particular route segment and the airspace design and traffic flow characteristics are modelled using Zero-inflated models. Based on the characteristics of the route segment, the distribution that most closely matches observations of the number of conflicts in airspace segments is a Zero-inflated negative binomial probability distribution. It also takes account of the large amount of null values that characterise safety occurrences in aviation.

ACS Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Javier Alberto Perez Castán; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Luis Perez Sanz; Eduardo Sanchez Ayra; Francisco Javier Saez Nieto. Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2019, 186, 143 -161.

AMA Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés, Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador, Javier Alberto Perez Castán, Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz, Luis Perez Sanz, Eduardo Sanchez Ayra, Francisco Javier Saez Nieto. Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 2019; 186 ():143-161.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosa Maria Arnaldo Valdés; Victor Fernando Gomez Comendador; Javier Alberto Perez Castán; Alvaro Rodriguez Sanz; Luis Perez Sanz; Eduardo Sanchez Ayra; Francisco Javier Saez Nieto. 2019. "Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 186, no. : 143-161.