Arctic coasts composed of frozen deposits are extremely sensitive to climate change and human impact. They retreat with average rates of 1–2 m per year, depending on climatic and permafrost conditions. In recent decades, retreat rates have shown a tendency to increase. In this paper, we studied the coastal dynamics of two key sites (Ural and Yamal coasts) of Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea, where a gas pipeline had been constructed. Based on multi-temporal aerial and satellite imagery, we identified coastal erosion rates at several time lapses, in natural conditions and under human impact, and discussed their temporal variability. In addition to planimetric (m/yr), we calculated volumetric (m³/m/yr) retreat rates of erosional coasts using ArcticDEM. We also estimated the influence of geomorphology, lithology, and permafrost structure of the coasts on spatial variations of their dynamics. Erosional coasts of the Ural key site retreat with higher mean rates (1.2 m/yr and 8.7 m³/m/yr) as compared to the Yamal key site (0.3 m/yr and 3.7 m³/m/yr) due to their exposure to higher open sea waves, more complex lithology, higher ice content and lower coastal bluffs. Since the 1960s, coastal retreat rates have been growing on both coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay; we relate this effect with Arctic climate warming. From the 1960s to 2005, such growth was moderate, while in 2005–2016 it became rapid, which may be explained by the enhanced wave and thermal action or by the onset of industrial development. The adjacent coastal segments, originally accumulative, remained relatively stable from the 1960s to 2005. After 2005, a considerable part of them began to retreat as a result of changing weather conditions and/or increasing human impact.

In recent decades, acceleration of coastal erosion has been observed at many key sites of the Arctic region. Coastal dynamics of both erosional and accretional stretches at Kharasavey, Kara Sea, was studied using multi-temporal remote sensing data covering the period from 1964 to 2022. Cross-proxy analyses of the interplay between coastal dynamics and regional (wave and thermal action) and local (geomorphic and lithological features; technogenic impact) drivers were supported by cluster analysis and wind–wave modelling via the Popov–Sovershaev method and WaveWatch III. Ice-rich permafrost bluffs and accretional sandy beaches exhibited a tendency towards persistent erosion (−1.03 m/yr and −0.42 m/yr, respectively). Shoreline progradation occurred locally near Cape Burunniy (6% of the accretional stretch) and may be due to sediment flux reversals responding to sea-ice decline. Although the mean rates of erosion were decreasing at a decadal scale, cluster analysis captured a slight increase in the retreat for 71% of the erosional stretch, which is apparently related to the forcing of wind–wave and thermal energy. Erosional hotspots (up to −7.9 m/yr) occurred mainly in the alignment of Cape Kharasavey and were predominantly caused by direct human impact. The presented study highlights the non-linear interaction of the Arctic coastal change and environmental drivers that require further upscaling of the applied models and remote sensing data.

The retreat rates of Arctic coasts have increased in recent decades at many sites, and an essential part of coasts considered accumulative before have turned erosional due to global climate changes and construction in the coastal zone. In this paper, we study a 7 km long coastal section of the western Gydan Peninsula in a new construction area. Based on the interpretation of multi-temporal satellite imagery, we assessed coastal dynamics in distinct periods from 1972 to 2020. We analyzed the geological structure of the coast as well as changes in hydrometeorological parameters with time, and considering the human impact, we proposed the main drivers of spatial and temporal variations of coastal dynamics. The studied low-lying sandy accumulative marine terrace was more or less stable in the period before construction (1972–2014). However, with the area’s development, the coast dynamics changed drastically: in 2014–2017, three-quarters of the studied area experienced retreat, and the average retreat rate amounted to 5.8 m/yr, up to 28.5 m/yr near the construction sites. We relate this coastal erosion intensification to human impact combined with the growth of hydrometeorological forcing. Although coastal erosion slowed down after 2017, the retreat trend remained. In the coming years, with Arctic climate warming, erosion of the studied coast will continue.

The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We focus on the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). The objective of this study is to project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in the state of climate and the natural environment in the YaNAO. For this purpose, the CMIP6 data models with the climate change scenario SSP5-8.5 were used. Climate change directly affects the statistics of extreme events and climatically driven phenomena, such as frosts and thaws, as well as avalanches and slush flows. Climate change causes changes in the Arctic environment, primarily due to permafrost degradation, leading to important modifications in events such as mudflows, cryogenic landslides, abrasion, erosion, suffusion, frost heave, solifluction, thermokarst, and others. In some cases, the intensity and area of these processes increase, such as heaving processes and thermokarst becoming more active by 2050. In other cases, the solifluction processes decrease in the south part of the YaNAO due to the discontinuous or sporadic permafrost distribution. Projected climatic changes will inevitably lead to the restructuring of the geosystems in YaNAO, creating risks for infrastructure in economically active territories.

Belova, N.G.; Novikova, A.V.; Günther, F., and Shabanova, N.N., 2020. Spatiotemporal variability of coastal retreat rates at Western Yamal Peninsula, Russia, based on remotely sensed data. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 367–371. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.The work aims at estimating coastal retreat at Western Yamal from 1972 to 2016, when significant climate change occurred in the Arctic. One fourth of the Kara Sea coasts are collapsing cliffs composed of permafrost, i.e. thermoabrasional coasts. Although these coasts are bounded by sea ice for most of the year, they retreat with rates comparable to those of temperate latitudes, but only during the short ice-free period. Permafrost cliffs are not only eroded by waves; they also get destroyed by melting of the ground ice bounding the sediments (thermo-denudation). Arctic coasts are sensitive to climate change, as rising summer air temperatures lead to deeper thawing of frozen sediments, and longer ice-free periods extend the time of the wave impact on the coast. At Western Yamal, in the area of Kharasavey gas condensate field, the average long-term coastal retreat rate is 1.3 m/yr (1972-2016) for 5.9 km of the coastline, reaching mean annual rates of 3 m/yr in some areas. The greatest retreat rates are typical for coastal segments composed of permafrost with high ice content. Based on the analysis of multitemporal aerial and space images, the coastal retreat rates for four time periods between 1972 and 2016 were estimated. The retreat rates were brought into context with data on sediment composition and type (grain size, ice content, presence of massive ice), reconstructed evolution of hydrometeorological parameters and the history of economic development of Kharasavey area. Unlike other Kara Sea sites of coastal dynamics' monitoring, the strongest coastal retreat rates at Kharasavey were observed earlier in 1977-1988, when the hydrometeorological stress was low, implying vulnerability of the coasts to significant anthropogenic impact at the beginning of the gas field development.