Arctic coasts composed of frozen deposits are extremely sensitive to climate change and human impact. They retreat with average rates of 1–2 m per year, depending on climatic and permafrost conditions. In recent decades, retreat rates have shown a tendency to increase. In this paper, we studied the coastal dynamics of two key sites (Ural and Yamal coasts) of Baydaratskaya Bay, Kara Sea, where a gas pipeline had been constructed. Based on multi-temporal aerial and satellite imagery, we identified coastal erosion rates at several time lapses, in natural conditions and under human impact, and discussed their temporal variability. In addition to planimetric (m/yr), we calculated volumetric (m³/m/yr) retreat rates of erosional coasts using ArcticDEM. We also estimated the influence of geomorphology, lithology, and permafrost structure of the coasts on spatial variations of their dynamics. Erosional coasts of the Ural key site retreat with higher mean rates (1.2 m/yr and 8.7 m³/m/yr) as compared to the Yamal key site (0.3 m/yr and 3.7 m³/m/yr) due to their exposure to higher open sea waves, more complex lithology, higher ice content and lower coastal bluffs. Since the 1960s, coastal retreat rates have been growing on both coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay; we relate this effect with Arctic climate warming. From the 1960s to 2005, such growth was moderate, while in 2005–2016 it became rapid, which may be explained by the enhanced wave and thermal action or by the onset of industrial development. The adjacent coastal segments, originally accumulative, remained relatively stable from the 1960s to 2005. After 2005, a considerable part of them began to retreat as a result of changing weather conditions and/or increasing human impact.

Recent years of increasing air temperature in the Arctic have led to a significant increase in the rate of retreat of permafrost coast, which has threatened livelihoods and infrastructure in these areas. The Kara Sea hosts more than 25% of the total Arctic coastline. However, little is known about how coastal erosion in the Kara Sea may have changed through time, and the climatic and environmental drivers remain unclear. Here we study coastal dynamics along a 4‐km stretch of permafrost and sea‐ice‐affected coastline in south‐west Baydaratskaya Bay of the Kara Sea, western Siberia, between 2005 and 2016, by using handheld differential GPS mapping and satellite imagery. We identified temporal and spatial variations in the retreat rates, ranging between 1.0 (+0.1/−0.6) and 1.9 (+0.7/−1.3) m/yr over the studied coastline during 2005–2016. We also made ground temperature measurements, subsurface resistivity measurements and estimates of wave energy flux of wind‐driven ocean waves, to investigate the dominant climatic factors influencing the observed retreat rates through time. We found that wind‐driven wave activity during sea‐ice‐free days influences the magnitude of coastal retreat in the study area, while recent temperature rise has contributed less to enhancing coastal retreat during the study period. This suggests that the amount of eroded sediment and the associated release of nutrient to the nearshore zone are controlled by the magnitude of wave activity, which may influence infrastructure along the permafrost coast and marine ecosystems in the proximal ocean.

The Arctic coast dynamics has been an urgent problem over the last years, from both a practical and a fundamental point of view. In this research, for the first time for the Russian Arctic coast, we assessed the damage from the loss of territories in the western part of the Russian Arctic, where the active production and transportation of hydrocarbon material are carried out. Most of the studied coastline is composed of frozen unlithified soils with inclusions of underground ice. In this regard, the coastal zone is highly sensitive to climate change and its economic consequences. According to our investigation and literature data, the erosion rates could rich up to 2–3 m/year in some part of the coastline. Having estimated the cadastral cost of land and the area of the possible loss of territory, as well as the cost of transport infrastructure in the risk zone, we tried to predict the damage from changes in the total structure of the area under consideration. In particular, the economic damages from coastal permafrost processes were estimated. The assessment was conducted for the middle of the 21st century, taking into account the current climatic trend, erosion rate and probable maximum warming in this region.

The environmental conditions of the Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We focus on the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YaNAO). The objective of this study is to project mid-21st century climate-driven changes in the state of climate and the natural environment in the YaNAO. For this purpose, the CMIP6 data models with the climate change scenario SSP5-8.5 were used. Climate change directly affects the statistics of extreme events and climatically driven phenomena, such as frosts and thaws, as well as avalanches and slush flows. Climate change causes changes in the Arctic environment, primarily due to permafrost degradation, leading to important modifications in events such as mudflows, cryogenic landslides, abrasion, erosion, suffusion, frost heave, solifluction, thermokarst, and others. In some cases, the intensity and area of these processes increase, such as heaving processes and thermokarst becoming more active by 2050. In other cases, the solifluction processes decrease in the south part of the YaNAO due to the discontinuous or sporadic permafrost distribution. Projected climatic changes will inevitably lead to the restructuring of the geosystems in YaNAO, creating risks for infrastructure in economically active territories.

In view of the active development of the northern territories the study of the coastal dynamics of the Arctic seas remains very relevant. Despite the fact that scientists have been studying the coastal dynamics since the last century, there are many issues of monitoring of the dynamics of the coasts, complicating the creation of reliable models of this dynamics. Monitoring of the coast dynamics is carried out with the help of field and remote methods having their nuances, errors and conditions of applicability. There are some difficulties associated with the severity of the climatic conditions of the region and its inaccessibility. The main problems related to methodological approaches are considered in the article and some ways of solving these problems are offered, from the positions that seem to the authors to be feasible.