Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includesin-situlake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

Global warming and eutrophication contribute to formation of HABs and distribution of alien cyanobacteria northward. The current study assessed how alien to Europe Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides and Chrysosporum bergii will co-occur with dominant native Planktothrix agardhii and Aphanizomenon gracile species under changing conditions in temperate freshwaters. The experiments were carried out to examine the effect of nutrients and temperature on the growth rate of cyanobacteria, production of cyanotoxins, and interspecies competition. The highest growth rate was determined for A. gracile (0.43 day⁻¹) and S. aphanizomenoides (0.40 day⁻¹) strains at all the tested nutrient concentrations (IP and IN were significant factors). S. aphanizomenoides adapted to the wide range of nutrient concentrations and temperature due to high species ecological plasticity; however, A. gracile was able to suppress its dominance under changing conditions. Regularity between tested variables and STX concentration in A. gracile was not found, but IP concentration negatively correlated with the amount of dmMC-RR and other non-ribosomal peptides (NRPs) in P. agardhii strains. The relative concentration of NRPs in nontoxic P. agardhii strain was up to 3-fold higher than in MC-producing strain. Our study indicated that nutrients, temperature, and species had significant effects on interspecies competition. A. gracile had a negative effect on biomass of both alien species and P. agardhii.

In response to global warming, an increase in cyanobacterial blooms is expected. In this work, the response of two native species of Planktothrix agardhii and Aphanizomenon gracile, as well as the response of two species alien to Europe—Chrysosporum bergii and Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides—to gradual temperature increase was tested. The northernmost point of alien species distribution in the European continent was recorded. The tested strains of native species were favoured at 20–28 °C. Alien species acted differently along temperature gradient and their growth rate was higher than native species. Temperature range of optimal growth rate for S. aphanizomenoides was similar to native species, while C. bergii was favoured at 26–30 °C but sensitive at 18–20 °C. Under all tested temperatures, non-toxic strains of the native cyanobacteria species prevailed over the toxic ones. In P. agardhii, the decrease in concentration of microcystins and other oligopeptides with the increasing temperature was related to higher growth rate. However, changes in saxitoxin concentration in A. gracile under different temperatures were not detected. Accommodating climate change perspectives, the current work showed a high necessity of further studies of temperature effect on distribution and toxicity of both native and alien cyanobacterial species.