Water, energy, food, land and climate form a tightly-connected nexus in which actions on one sector impact other sectors, creating feedbacks and unanticipated consequences. This is especially because at present, much scientific research and many policies are constrained to single discipline/sector silos that are often not interacting (e.g., water-related research/policy). However, experimenting with the interaction and determining how a change in one sector could impact another may require unreasonable time frames, be very difficult in practice and may be potentially dangerous, triggering any one of a number of unanticipated side-effects. Current modelling often neglects knowledge from practice. Therefore, a safe environment is required to test the potential cross-sectoral implications of policy decisions in one sector on other sectors. Serious games offer such an environment by creating realistic ‘simulations’, where long-term impacts of policies may be tested and rated. This paper describes how the ongoing (2016–2020) Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS will develop serious games investigating potential plausible cross-nexus implications and synergies due to policy interventions for 12 multi-scale case studies ranging from regional to global. What sets these games apart is that stakeholders and partners are involved in all aspects of the modelling definition and process, from case study conceptualisation, quantitative model development including the implementation and validation of each serious game. Learning from playing a serious game is justified by adopting a proof-of-concept for a specific regional case study in Sardinia (Italy). The value of multi-stakeholder involvement is demonstrated, and critical lessons learned for serious game development in general are presented.

The design, construction and maintenance of Critical Infrastructures (CI) is commonly based on standards that are rigorous, so as to withstand any climate or weather-linked pressures. However, due to climate change, climate characteristics may shift, resulting in increased frequency/magnitude of potential failures, or exposure to new unknown risks. As vital components for the normal functioning of modern societies, the resilience of CIs under climate stressors encompasses their structural integrity, their operational elements, and their capacity to maximize business output. In this work, we propose an integrated and participatory methodological approach to enhance the resilience of interconnected CIs to urban flooding under climate change, by assessing the risk and introducing adaptation measures. The main objectives of the proposed methodology and approach are: (i) to provide scientific evidence for better understanding of how future climate regimes might affect normal operation of interconnected CI in urban areas during their lifespan; (ii) to assess the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures; (iii) to involve local stakeholders and operators in the co-design of the approach, as well as the assessment and the evaluation of adaptation measures; (iv) to combine computational modelling with advanced 3D visualisation techniques for effectively engaging stakeholders in decision making; (v) to include risk assessment and damage functions co-designed by end-users and local stakeholders; (vi) to integrate all of the aforementioned components in a specifically designed cloud platform as a Decision Support System for end-users, (vii) to validate the DSS by the end users and local stakeholders. The paper presents the computational background and tools. Additionally, it describes a Case Study in Torbay, UK, where the full methodology and the proposed participatory approach have been applied, with all the specifics, i.e., the scenarios of extreme flooding, the numerical and visualisation results, the response of the stakeholders and the evaluation of selected adaptation measures.

Flood prevention in mixed urban–rural environments has become a greater concern due to climate change. It is a complex task requiring both efficient management of resources and the involvement of multiple stakeholders from diverse backgrounds. As Serious Games (games used for purposes other than mere entertainment) have emerged as an effective means of engaging stakeholders, this work proposes a new Serious Game applied to flood mitigation in the village of Millbrook in the UK. Results show that the game has both an informative and a transformative effect (statistical significance levels from 0.01 to 0.05), improving participants’ understanding of the problem, and helping them to find a new and improved approach to flood risk management in Millbrook, with the potential to improve resilience significantly. Furthermore, the game successfully transformed participants into “citizen scientists” in the purest sense of the term—it led them to use inductive reasoning from data produced by the game to correctly confirm or reject hypotheses and resulted in more than 70% of the participants revising their initial assumptions. Interestingly, the game instigated the formation of new local partnerships and helped to prioritize the discussion of natural flood management measures in Millbrook Parish Council meetings.

As the world increasingly runs up against physical constraints of energy, land, water, and food, there is a growing role for policy to reduce environmental pressures without adversely affecting increases in prosperity. There is therefore a need for policy makers to understand the potential trade-offs and/or synergies between the uses of these different resources, i.e., to encompass the water–energy–food–land nexus for policy and decision making, where it is no longer possible to ignore the limitations in land availability and its links to other natural resources. This paper proposes a modelling approach to help to assess various policies from a nexus perspective. The global macro-econometric model (E3ME) explores a low-carbon transition through different sets of energy and climate policies applied at different spatial scales. The limitations of the E3ME model in assessing nexus interactions are discussed. The paper also argues and offers an explanation for why no single traditional or classic model has the potential to cover all parts of the nexus in a satisfactory way, including feedback loops and interactions between nexus components. Other approaches and methodologies suitable for complexity science modelling (e.g., system dynamics modelling) are proposed, providing a possible means to capture the holistic approach of the nexus in policy-making by including causal and feedback loops to the model components. Based on three case studies in Europe, the paper clarifies the different steps (from policy design towards conceptual model) in modelling the nexus linkages and interactions at the national and regional levels. One case study (The Netherlands) considers national low-carbon transitions at national level. Two other case studies (Latvia and southwest UK) focus on how renewable energy may impact the nexus. A framework is proposed for the generic application of quantitative modelling approaches to assess nexus linkages. The value of the nexus concept for the efficient use of resources is demonstrated, and recommendations for policies supporting the nexus are presented.

This paper proposes the application of three different methods for preserving the correlation between duration and intensity of synthetically generated water-demand pulses. The first two methods, that is, the Iman and Conover method and the Gaussian copula, respectively, are derived from known statistical approaches, although they had never been applied to the context of demand-pulse generation. The third is a novel methodology developed in this work and is a variation in the Gaussian copula approach. Poisson models fitted with the methods are applied to reproduce the measured pulses in one household, with parameters being obtained with the method of moments. Comparisons are made with another method previously proposed in the scientific literature, showing that the three methods have similar effectiveness and are applicable under more general conditions.

Land, food, energy, water and climate are linked and interconnected into a Nexus, characterized by complexity and feedbacks. An integrated management of the Nexus is critical to understand conflicts/synergies and secure efficient and sustainable use of resources, especially under climate change. The Nexus perspective is applied to Sardinia, as regional case study, to better understand and improve integrated resource management and relevant policy initiatives. Vulnerability of Sardinia Nexus is assessed under several climate projections by articulated balances of resources (water, energy) availability and sustainable development goals, at regional and sub-regional scales, accounting for demands and conflicts among key economic sectors (agriculture, hydro-power, tourism).