Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

The contribution of aircraft operations to ambient ultrafine particle (UFP) concentration at and around airports can be significant. This review article considers the volatile and non-volatile elements of particulate matter emissions from aircraft engines, their characteristics and quantification and identifies gaps in knowledge. The current state of the art emission inventory methods and dispersion modelling approaches are reviewed and areas for improvement and research needs are identified. Quantification of engine non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) is improving as measured certification data for the landing and take-off cycle are becoming available. Further work is needed: to better estimate nvPM emissions during the full-flight; to estimate non-regulated (smaller) engines; and to better estimate the emissions and evolution of volatile particles (vPM) in the aircraft exhaust plume. Dispersion modelling improvements are also needed to better address vPM. As the emissions inventory data for both vPM and nvPM from aircraft sources improve, better estimates of the contribution of aircraft engine emissions to ambient particulate concentrations will be possible.