Ulan Mukhtarov

Mr. Ulan Mukhtarov

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

3Years (2024-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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18 November 2025 in Sustainability
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ATAigul Tokbergenova
Aigul Tokbergenova
DKDamira Kaliyeva
Damira Kaliyeva
Kanat Bazarbayevich ZulpykharovKanat Bazarbayevich Zulpykharov
Kanat Bazarbayevich Zulpykharov
OTOmirzhan TAUKEBAYEV
Omirzhan TAUKEBAYEV
RSRuslan Salmurzauly
Ruslan Salmurzauly
DTDias Tokkozhayev
Dias Tokkozhayev
The study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on pasture ecosystems in Central Kazakhstan, particularly within the Karaganda and Ulytau regions. The assessment combines remote sensing indicators (NDVI, LST) with long-term climatic datasets (CRU TS v4.09 and national meteorological records) for the period 2000–2024. Non-parametric statistical methods, including the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Pettitt’s test, were applied to identify the direction, intensity, and structural shifts in temperature and precipitation trends. The results indicate significant regional warming, especially during summer and spring, alongside spatially inconsistent precipitation changes. The southern and southwestern areas (Zhezkazgan and Satpayev) show intensified aridization, manifested in rising land surface temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and declining vegetation productivity and exacerbated by anthropogenic pressures. Conversely, the eastern and northeastern regions exhibit stable or increasing NDVI values and moderate precipitation growth, suggesting potential for natural recovery. The study concludes that pasture degradation in Central Kazakhstan is driven by combined climatic and human factors, with pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The integrated approach enhances the reliability of climate impact assessments and provides a scientific basis for developing adaptive and region-specific strategies for sustainable pasture management under ongoing climate change.

27 March 2024 in Studies of the Industrial Geography Commission of the Polish Geographical Society
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GNGulnara Nyussupova
Gulnara Nyussupova
GKGaukhar Khassanova
Gaukhar Khassanova
GAGaukhar Aubakirova
Gaukhar Aubakirova
CZChingiz Zhumagulov
Chingiz Zhumagulov
UMUlan Mukhtarov
Ulan Mukhtarov
The basis of this study was the analysis of the human capital reproductive processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan, considering the gender component. The object was the human capital of Kazakhstan’s regions, and the subject was the gender aspect of human capital development. Mincer’s supplemented human capital assessment model was the primary model for calculating human capital. Factors influencing the effective use of human capital in the regions, considering the gender component, were identified, and their indices were calculated. The analysis showed a persistent gender gap in life expectancy, education level, income, and labour market. Based on the results, leader and outsider regions in terms of the accumulated human capital level were identified. The analysis indicates the responsible attitude of the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan towards developing gender equality. Over the past ten years, Kazakhstan has advanced significantly in its efforts to empower women in the socio-political sphere. The Republic of Kazakhstan has assumed obligations under several international agreements, adopted many laws, and developed government measures critical for increasing women’s participation in government activities.

31 March 2026 in Journal of Geography and Environmental Management
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Journal Article
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КЗК.б. Зулпыхаров
К.б. Зулпыхаров
АТА.а. Токбергенова
А.а. Токбергенова
РСР. Салмұрзаұлы
Р. Салмұрзаұлы
АКА.а. Калдыбаев
А.а. Калдыбаев
UMUlan Mukhtarov
Ulan Mukhtarov
ААА.а. Асанбаева
А.а. Асанбаева
Мақалада Түркістан облысындағы ирригациялық жүйелердің қазіргі техникалық жай-күйі және олардың суармалы егістік жерлердің мелиоративтік жағдайына тигізетін әсері қарастырылған. Зерттеу барысында негізгі суару және коллекторлық-дренаждық желілердің физикалық тозу деңгейі, гидротехникалық құрылыстардың пайдалану тиімділігі, сондай-ақ су беру режимдерінің топырақтың агромелиоративтік көрсеткіштеріне ықпалы талданды. Зерттеудің ақпараттық базасын көпжылдық архивтік материалдар, далалық бақылау деректері және қашықтан зондтау мәліметтері құрады. Зерттеу нәтижелері ирригациялық және коллекторлық-дренаждық жүйелердің техникалық жағдайының қанағаттанарлықсыз болуына байланысты Түркістан облысындағы суармалы жерлердің жыл сайын шамамен 10–15 % пайдаланылмай келеді. Атап айтқанда, суармалы алқаптардың 1,5–3 %-ы өте күшті тұздануға, 4–5,6 %-ы су тапшылығына, 1,5–2 %-ы жер асты сулары деңгейінің шектен тыс (2 м-ден жоғары) көтерілуіне немесе батпақтануға, ал 5,6–7 %-ы суару жүйелерінің тозуына және өзге де қаржылық-техникалық факторларға байланысты пайдаланылмай отыр. Алынған нәтижелер ирригациялық жүйелердің техникалық тозуы топырақтың тұздану және батпақтану үдерістерінің күшеюіне, жер асты сулары деңгейінің жоғарылауына және суармалы егістік жерлердің өнімділігінің төмендеуіне әкелетінін айқындады. Зерттеу қорытындылары өңірдегі суару жүйелерін жаңғырту, су ресурстарын тиімді басқару және суармалы жерлердің мелиоративтік жағдайын жақсарту бойынша ғылыми-практикалық ұсынымдар әзірлеуге негіз бола алады.

1 August 2026 in Sustainability
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ATAigul Tokbergenova
Aigul Tokbergenova
UMUlan Mukhtarov
Ulan Mukhtarov
AAAisara Assanbayeva
Aisara Assanbayeva
MAMaulken Askarova
Maulken Askarova
AMAizhan Mussagaliyeva
Aizhan Mussagaliyeva
DZDarkhan Zhanbayev
Darkhan Zhanbayev
Climate change, increasing aridification, and water scarcity are intensifying the vulnerability of irrigated agroecosystems in Central Asia to drought and secondary soil salinization. In this study, we assessed the spatio-temporal vulnerability of irrigated land in the Turkestan Region (Kazakhstan) using SPEI-3, NDVI, NDSI, Landsat imagery (2000–2025), spatial analysis, and copula modeling. A strong positive relationship was found between SPEI-3 and NDVI (Pearson’s r = 0.861; Spearman’s r = 0.851), indicating vegetation is highly sensitive to moisture availability. Moderate and severe droughts reduced NDVI values by 15–25%, exceeding 30% in the most vulnerable areas, while persistent salinity hotspots were identified in the southern and southeastern irrigated zones. Copula modeling quantified the relationship between SPEI-3 and NDVI using 23 paired annual observations (2000–2022). The best-fitting model, selected using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = −31.074) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC = −29.939), revealed a nonlinear and asymmetric dependence between drought conditions and vegetation response. The probability of concurrent drought and vegetation degradation reached 0.55–0.70 in the most vulnerable areas. Integrated vulnerability mapping identified the Maktaaral, Zhetysay, Shardara, and Otyrar districts as the most vulnerable territories. The proposed framework supports drought vulnerability assessment and sustainable management of irrigated agroecosystems under climate change.

24 September 2025 in Sustainability
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Journal Article
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ATAigul Tokbergenova
Aigul Tokbergenova
ARAijan Ryskeldieva
Aijan Ryskeldieva
AMAizhan Mussagaliyeva
Aizhan Mussagaliyeva
ISIrina Skorintseva
Irina Skorintseva
DKDamira Kaliyeva
Damira Kaliyeva
BBBekzat Bilalov
Bekzat Bilalov
This paper presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the resilience of landscapes to human impact in western Kazakhstan. The approach developed is based on integrating remote sensing data (MODIS, SMAP, NDVI and NDSI), the results of field surveys, and multi-criteria analysis methods in a GIS environment. The assessment covered over 50 landscape types and subtypes using ten key indicators reflecting climatic, geomorphological, soil, hydrological, and biotic characteristics. These indicators were normalised, aggregated and summarised to create an integral index of landscape resilience, which allowed four resilience classes to be identified, ranging from highly vulnerable to relatively resilient. The spatial analysis revealed that over 60% of the region’s territory is classified as high-vulnerability, predominantly within semi-desert and desert zones, which are vulnerable to climatic risks, degradation of vegetation cover and human activity. Verification of the results based on remote monitoring data for the period 2000–2024 and field observations confirmed the reliability of the developed methodology. The results obtained allow the identification of areas prioritised for environmental monitoring, restoration and sustainable land use in arid climate conditions. A plan of measures for regulation and restoration of ecosystems and spatial planning tools are proposed. The obtained data can be used for the development of regional environmental policy and sustainable land use strategies.

1 January 2024 in Journal of Geography and Environmental Management
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Journal Article
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MTM.S. Turdanova
M.S. Turdanova
KMK.K. Muzdybayeva
K.K. Muzdybayeva
UMUlan Mukhtarov
Ulan Mukhtarov
AAA.A. Assanbayeva
A.A. Assanbayeva
ZKZ.E. Kozhabekova
Z.E. Kozhabekova
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the ecological and geographical challenges faced by urban systems in the Zhambyl region of Kazakhstan, focusing on environmental issues such as air pollution, water contamination, and the degradation of natural ecosystems. The rapid pace of urbanization and industrialization in the region has led to significant changes in the ecological balance, with cities like Taraz and the Zualy district being major contributors to pollutant emissions. The study highlights the impact of these environmental problems on public health, biodiversity, and regional climate change. Using data from official reports, GIS technologies, and remote sensing, the article examines the distribution of pollutant emissions and identifies the key sources of pollution across various districts in the region. The results show that major industrial activities and high population density contribute to high levels of atmospheric pollution, while some districts, like Merken and Talas, have lower emission volumes due to less industrial development. The study suggests that addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including the implementation of stricter environmental regulations, the adoption of eco-friendly technologies, improved waste management systems, and the promotion of sustainable resource management. The article emphasizes the importance of public engagement and environmental education in fostering a more sustainable urban future. By analyzing the current ecological situation, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers and local authorities to develop strategies that balance urban development with environmental protection and public health in the Zhambyl region.