Coastal ecosystems and anthropic activities are prone to be affected by the negative impact of marine-related processes induced by climate change, such as erosion, flooding and permanent inundation. Studies aiming at defining potential risk scenarios represent a valuable tool for the identification of the most suitable coastal adaptation measures. After outlining sea level rise implications at the Mediterranean scale, this paper deals with inundation risk scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 for the north-eastern sector of the Island of Gozo (Malta), central Mediterranean Sea. The analysis, carried out by applying an index-based procedure, firstly required the evaluation of the susceptibility to inundation of the investigated coastal stretch under different sea level projections. Then, the spatial combination of inundation susceptibility with the exposure and vulnerability of the area allowed identification of the most critical sectors in terms of coastal risk. The results of the analysis showed that, under the worst-case climate scenarios, 5.5% and 8.1% of the investigated coastal sector are prone to very high inundation risk (Class R4) in 2050 and 2100, respectively. In particular, the bays of Ramla and Marsalforn, which are characterized by significant economic and touristic activities, were found to be the sites where the expected impacts of future sea level rise will be higher if no management strategy and adaptation action are taken in the near future.

The coastal landscape of the Maltese Islands is the result of long-term evolution, influenced by tectonics, geomorphological processes, and sea level oscillations. Due to their geological setting, the islands are particularly prone to marine-related and gravity-induced processes, exacerbated by climate change. This study aligns different concepts into a relatively concise and expedient methodology for overall coastal vulnerability assessment, taking the NE sector of Gozo Island as a test case. Geomorphological investigation, integrated with analysis of marine geophysical data, enabled characterization of coastal dynamics, identifying this stretch of coast as being potentially hazardous. The study area features a high economic value derived from tourist and mining activities and natural protected areas, that altogether not only make coastal vulnerability a major concern but also the task of assessing it complex. Before introducing the methodology proposed for overall vulnerability assessment, an in-depth revision of the vulnerability concept is provided. The evaluation was carried out by using a set of key indicators related to local land use, anthropic and natural assets, economic activities, and social issues. Results show that the most critical areas are located east of Marsalforn including Ramla Bay, an important tourist attraction hosting the largest sandy beach in Gozo. The method combines physical exposure and social vulnerability into an overall index. It proves to be cost effective in data management and processing and is suitable for the identification and assessment of overall vulnerability of coastal areas to consequences of climate- and marine-related processes, such as coastal erosion, landslides and sea level rise.

Low-lying coastal zones are highly subject to coastal hazards as a result of sea-level rise enhanced by natural or anthropogenic land subsidence. A combined analysis using sea-level data and remote sensing techniques allows the estimation of the current rates of land subsidence and shoreline retreat, supporting the development of quantified relative sea-level projections and flood maps, which are appropriate for specific areas. This study focuses on the coastal plain of Tavoliere delle Puglie (Apulia, Southern Italy), facing the Adriatic Sea. In this area, land subsidence is mainly caused by long-term tectonic movements and sediment compaction driven by high anthropogenic pressure, such as groundwater exploitation and constructions of buildings. To assess the expected effects of relative sea-level rise for the next decades, we considered the following multidisciplinary source data: (i) sea-level-rise projections for different climatic scenarios, as reported in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (ii) coastal topography from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data, (iii) Vertical Land Movement (VLM) from the analysis of InSAR and GNSS data, and (iv) shoreline changes obtained from the analysis of orthophotos, historic maps, and satellite images. To assess the expected evolution of the coastal belt, the topographic data were corrected for VLM values, assuming that the rates of land subsidence will remain constant up to 2150. The sea-level-rise projections and expected flooded areas were estimated for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to low and high greenhouse-gas concentrations, respectively. From our analysis, we estimate that in 2050, 2100, and 2150, up to 50.5 km², 118.7 km² and 147.7 km² of the coast could be submerged, respectively, while beaches could retreat at rates of up to 5.8 m/yr. In this area, sea-level rise will be accelerated by natural and anthropogenic land subsidence at rates of up to −7.5 ± 1.7 mm/yr. Local infrastructure and residential areas are thus highly exposed to an increasing risk of severe inundation by storm surges and sea-level rise in the next decades.