We developed a population physiology model, physB, which provides a statistical description of the physiological characteristics in the human population, in terms of the physiological parameters that are needed in physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling. The model predicts individual organ weights, blood flows and some respiratory parameters from anthropometric properties (body height and weight, age and gender). It draws on two existing models, PK-Pop and P³M, but various changes and improvements were made. The conceptual differences among the three models are discussed and they are quantitatively compared by running all three models for various specific combinations of anthropometric properties.

Biomarkers for the determination of the dietary exposure to deoxynivalenol (DON) have been proposed in the past but so far no quantification of their use in humans has been carried out. Following a human intervention study with two mycotoxins, namely DON and deoxynivalenol-3-glucoside (DON3G), the renal excretion of these compounds, including their phase II metabolites, was analysed. The purpose was to develop biokinetic models that can be used to determine: (1) the preferred (set of) urinary biomarker(s), (2) the preferred urinary collection period, and (3) a method to estimate the dietary exposure to these mycotoxins. Twenty adult volunteers were restricted in consuming cereals and cereal-based foods for 4 days. At day 3, a single dose of 1 µg/kg body weight of DON or DON3G was orally administered to 16 volunteers; 4 volunteers served as control. All individual urine discharges were collected during 24 h after administration. The metabolism and renal excretion could be described by a biokinetic model using three physiological compartments (gastrointestinal tract, liver, and kidneys). Kinetic analysis revealed a complete recovery of the renal excretion of total DON (mainly DON and its glucuronides) within 24 h after administration of DON or DON3G. The so-called ‘reverse dosimetry’ factor was used to determine the preferred (set of) biomarker(s) and to estimate the dietary intake of the parent compounds in the future. The fact that DON3G was absorbed and mainly excreted as DON and its glucuronides confirms that DON3G (as well as other modified forms) should be taken into account in the exposure and risk assessment of this group of mycotoxins.

The consumption of fish and nitrate-rich vegetables may lead to the formation of the genotoxic carcinogen N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) in the stomach. To assess human cancer risk associated with this formation, a dynamic in vitro gastrointestinal model was used to simulate NDMA formation in the stomach after a fish + vegetable meal. The experimental results were combined with statistical modeling of Dutch food consumption data resulting in predicted exposures to endogenously formed NDMA in the population. The 95th percentile of the long-term exposure distribution was around 4 ng/kg-bw in young children and 0.4 ng/kg-bw in adults. By comparing this exposure with the Benchmark Dose Lower bound (BMDL) 10 for liver cancer in a chronic carcinogenicity study, a chronic margin of exposure (MOE) was calculated of 7000 and 73,000 for young children and adults. Furthermore, the long-term exposure distribution was combined with a dose-response analysis of the liver cancer incidence data to obtain a cancer risk distribution for the human population. The 95th percentile of that distribution was 6 x 10(-6) extra risk for 5-year-old children and 8 x 10(-7) for adults. The liver cancer data allowed for the analysis of the relationship between tumor incidence and time to tumor. For an extra risk of 10(-6), the decrease in time to tumor was conservatively estimated at 3.8 min in the rat, equivalent to 0.1 days in humans. We also combined acute exposure estimates with the BMDL10 from an acute carcinogenicity study for NDMA, resulting in an acute MOE of 110,000. We conclude that the combined consumption of fish and nitrate-rich vegetables appears to lead to marginal increases of additional cancer risk.

The dietary exposure to the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON) can be assessed by human biomonitoring (HBM). Here, we assessed the relation between dietary DON intake and the excretion of its major metabolite DON-15-glucuronide (DON15GlcA) through time, in an everyday situation. For 49 volunteers from the EuroMix biomonitoring study, the intake of DON from each meal was calculated and the excretion of DON and its metabolites was analyzed for each urine void collected separately throughout a 24-h period. The relation between DON and DON15GlcA was analyzed with a statistical model to assess the residence time and the excreted fraction of ingested DON as DON15GlcA (f_{abs_excr}). F_{abs_excr} was treated as a random effect variable to address its heterogeneity in the population. The estimated time in which 97.5% of the ingested DON was excreted as DON15GlcA was 12.1 h, the elimination half-life was 4.0 h. Based on the estimated f_{abs_excr}, the mean reversed dosimetry factor (RDF) of DON15GlcA was 2.28. This RDF can be used to calculate the amount of total DON intake in an everyday situation, based on the excreted amount of DON15GlcA. We show that urine samples collected over 24 h are the optimal design to study DON exposure by HBM.

Toxicokinetic modelling provides a powerful tool in relating internal human exposure (i.e., assessed through urinary biomarker levels) to external exposure. Chemical specific toxicokinetic models are available; however, this specificity prevents their application to similar contaminants or to other routes of exposure. For this reason, we investigated whether a generic physiological-based kinetic (PBK) model might be a suitable alternative for a biokinetic model of deoxynivalenol (DON). IndusChemFate (ICF) was selected as a generic PBK model, which could be fit for purpose. Being suited for simulating multiple routes of exposure, ICF has particularly been used to relate the inhalation and dermal exposure of industrial chemicals to their urinary excretion. For the first time, the ICF model was adapted as a generic model for the human biomonitoring of mycotoxins, thereby extending its applicability domain. For this purpose, chemical-specific data for DON and its metabolites were collected directly from the literature (distribution and metabolism) or indirectly (absorption and excretion) by fitting the ICF model to previously described urinary excretion data. The obtained results indicate that this generic model can be used to model the urinary excretion of DON and its glucuronidated metabolites following dietary exposure to DON. Additionally, the present study establishes the basis for further development of the model to include an inhalation exposure route alongside the oral exposure route.