The agricultural sector of Cyprus is seriously affected by climate change impacts. In the framework of the ADAPT2CLIMA project, the available techniques and methods implemented worldwide for the adaptation of six crops (wheat, barley, potatoes, tomatoes, grapes, and olives) to climate change impacts were thoroughly assessed. The identified adaptation options were categorized according to the climate change impact they address as follows: measures against drought stress, heat stress, decreasing plant health, extreme weather events and reduced crop productivity. Another category that refers to measures that address more than one category of climate change was also added. The evaluation of the identified adaptation options was based on a self-administered semi-structured questionnaire. The identified adaptation measures were graded according to the following criteria: efficiency of the measure, urgency of implementing the measure, usefulness of implementation irrespective of climate change, technical difficulty, contribution to climate change adaptation, economic viability and social acceptance. Fifty-six respondents (experts and stakeholders) filled the questionnaire, suggesting twelve recommended adaptation measures (with high score ≥ 60%), which mainly refer to irrigation adaptation measures, cultural practices, and methods for upgrading external services to farmers. The recommended adaptation measures for Cyprus are thoroughly presented and discussed.

This study was conducted in order to investigate possible quality changes in Cyprus’ groundwater resources over a 10-year period of pumping and to check the suitability of primary irrigation water. Water samples (n = 890) from private wells in agricultural areas were analyzed from 2009 to 2018 to determine various physicochemical properties. The sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and residual sodium carbonate (RSC) were also calculated to evaluate potential soil degradation issues. Sodium, chloride and sulphate were found to be the predominant ions in groundwater. Quality evaluation showed possible restrictions in groundwater use for irrigation in relation to its salt content and the toxicity of specific ions having adverse effects on sensitive and several moderately sensitive crops. In particular, an increasing trend was observed in pumped groundwater for boron ion concentrations. Nevertheless, all samples evaluated were suitable for irrigation in terms of soil sodicitation and soil infiltration rate. This study indicates that in order to maintain long-term agricultural sustainability it is imperative to develop strategic plants to mitigate the adverse effects of water-pumped quality deterioration on soils and crops. Precision agriculture techniques may be adapted for better water and nutrient input/output management, thus protecting groundwater from salinization in agricultural areas. These results, among others, may be a useful tool to enhance the ability of Cyprus’s agricultural water sector to adapt to observed and anticipated climate impacts.

This study focuses on the quantification of climate change (CC) effects on agricultural water availability in Cyprus. Projections of climatic variables, based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, were used as CC driving forces affecting water availability. Groundwater flow models were developed for specific high-interest agricultural areas in Larnaca and Paphos to assess the CC impacts on these groundwater systems, while the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was also adopted, for the first time in Cyprus, to assess future trends of water reservoir storage under the projected climatic conditions. Considering the current cultivation and irrigation practices, a decrease in groundwater level close to 1 m and further inland seawater intrusion in Larnaca aquifers are expected, while in Paphos’ aquifers, the predicted water table fluctuations are not significant. Additionally, SPEI values at the Asprokemos and Kouris dams are correlated with water storage measurements, showing that a SPEI downward trend observed in these reservoirs could set off an alarm to the water authorities with respect to water availability as more severe drought events are expected in the future. The expected pressure on surface waters imposes the need for an improved water management plan that will not depend on the further exploitation of groundwater.

In this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators of the Cypriot agriculture. The results are aggregated at municipal level in order to support regional and local adaptation planning. The assessment was performed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), as well as for extreme climatic scenarios. Following, an economic assessment was made on the expected change in revenues of the agricultural sector. The results of climatic simulations indicated that future increases in temperature will be characterized by a strong seasonal trend, with the highest increases occurring in summer. Precipitation is expected to decrease throughout the island, where the highest decreases (50%) are expected during summer (RCP8.5). This trend will affect mainly tomato, grapevine, and olive tree, whose growing cycle takes place during summer. By contrast, crops covering autumn-winter season, such as potato, barley, and wheat, are expected to partially avoid harsh summer conditions. The results of the economic assessment show that the changes in total revenues are insignificant, because, under all scenarios, a loss in one crop is compensated by a gain in another crop. However, the farmers as well as the government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts.

Agriculture is highly dependent on climate change, and Cyprus especially is experiencing its impacts on agricultural production to a greater extent, mainly due to its geographical location. The adaptation of farming to the effects of global climate change may lead to the maximization of agricultural production, which is an important and desirable improvement. The main aim of this paper is to rank and quantify the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through a multi-round Delphi survey seeking a consensus agreement in a group of experts. A multidisciplinary group of 20 experts stated their willingness-to-pay for various impacts of climate change. By applying this method, the individual impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources were brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with cost values. The final cost impact estimate represents the total estimated cost of climate change in the agricultural sector. According to the results, this cost reaches EUR 25.08 million annually for the agricultural sector, and EUR 366.48 million for the whole country. Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period 2014–2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture ranges from EUR 176 to EUR 2565 million. The most significant impacts are due to the increasing level of CO₂ in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems.