Hydrological droughts are characterized based on their duration, severity, and magnitude. Among the most critical factors, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff are essential in modeling the droughts. In this study, three indices of drought, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), are modeled using Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP), and M5 model trees (MT). The results indicate that SPI delivered higher accuracy. Moreover, MT model performed better in predicting SSI by a CC of 0.8195 and a RMSE of 0.8186. Abbreviations: ANFIS: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; ANN: artificial neural network; ANN: artificial neural network; BS-SVR: boosted-support Vector Regression; CC: correlation coefficient; ELM: extreme learning machine; GEP: gene Expression Programming; GP: genetic Programming; GPR: Gaussian process regression; KNN: k-nearest neighbor; LSSVM: least squares Support Vector Machine; LSSVR: least support vector regression; MAE: mean absolute error; MARS: multivariate adaptive regression splines; MLP: multilayer perceptron; MLR: multiple linear regression; MT: M5 model tree; P: precipitation; PDSI: palmer drought severity index; PET: potential evapotranspiration; RAE: relative absolute error; RMSE: root mean square error; RVM: relevance vector machine; SAR: sodium absorption index; SDR: standard deviation reduction; SPEI: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; SPI: standardized precipitation index; SSI: standardized streamflow index; SVM: support vector machine; SVR: support vector regression; WAANN: Wavelet-ARIMA-ANN; WANFIS: Wavelet-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System; WN: wavelet network

Identification and management of the groundwater quality are of utmost importance for maintaining freshwater resources in arid and semi-arid areas, which is essential for sustainable development. Based on the quality of the groundwater in various areas, local policymakers and water resource managers can allocate the usage of resources for either drinking or agricultural purposes. This research aims to identify suitable areas of water pumping for drinking and agricultural harvest in the Tabriz aquifer, located in East Azerbaijan province, northwest Iran. A groundwater compatibility study was conducted by analyzing Electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Chloride (Cl), Calcium (Ca), Magnesium (Mg), Sodium (Na), Potassium (K), Sulfate (SO₄), Total hardness (TH), Bicarbonate (HCO₃), pH, carbonate (CO₃), the and Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR) obtained from 39 wells in the time period from 2003 to 2014. The Water Quality Index (WQI) and irrigation water quality (IWQ) index are respectively utilized due to their high importance in identifying the quality of water resources for irrigation and drinking purposes. The WQI index zoning for drinking classified water as excellent, good, or poor. The study concludes that most drinking water harvested for urban and rural areas is ‘excellent water’ or ‘good water’. The IWQ index average for the study area is reported to be in the range of 25.9 to 34.55. The results further revealed that about 37 percent (296 km²) of groundwater has high compatibility, and 63 percent of the study area (495 km²) has average compatibility for agricultural purposes. The trend of IWQ and WQI indexes demonstrates that groundwater quality has been declining over time.

Evaporation is a very important process; it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, evaporation is considered as a complex and nonlinear phenomenon to model. Thus, machine learning methods have gained popularity in this realm. In the present study, four machine learning methods of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to predict the pan evaporation (PE). Meteorological data including PE, temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (W), and sunny hours (S) collected from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. The results of this study showed that at Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations, GPR with RMSE of 1.521 mm/day, 1.244 mm/day, and 1.254 mm/day, KNN with RMSE of 1.991 mm/day, 1.775 mm/day, and 1.577 mm/day, RF with RMSE of 1.614 mm/day, 1.337 mm/day, and 1.316 mm/day, and SVR with RMSE of 1.55 mm/day, 1.262 mm/day, and 1.275 mm/day had more appropriate performances in estimating PE values. It was found that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W and S had the most accurate predictions and were proposed for precise estimation of PE. The findings of the current study indicated that the PE values may be accurately estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters.

In the current study, the ability of three data-driven methods of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), M5 model tree (M5), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were investigated in order to model and estimate the dew point temperature (DPT) at Tabriz station, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological parameters of daily average temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), actual vapor pressure (V_p), wind speed (W), and sunshine hours (S) were obtained from the meteorological organization of East Azerbaijan province, Iran for the period 1998 to 2016. Following this, the methods mentioned above were examined by defining 15 different input combinations of meteorological parameters. Additionally, root mean square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²) were implemented to analyze the accuracy of the proposed methods. The results showed that the GEP-10 method, using three input parameters of T, RH, and S, with RMSE of 0.96°, the SVR-5, using two input parameters of T and RH, with RMSE of 0.44, and M5-15, using five input parameters of T, RH, V_p, W, and S with RMSE of 0.37 present better performance in the estimation of the DPT. As a conclusion, the M5-15 is recommended as the most precise model in the estimation of DPT in comparison with other considered models. As a conclusion, the obtained results proved the high capability of proposed M5 models in DPT estimation.

This study evaluates standalone and hybrid soft computing models for predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration by utilizing different water quality parameters. In the first stage, two standalone soft computing models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and cascade correlation neural network (CCNN), were proposed for estimating the DO concentration in the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. The DO concentration and water quality parameters (e.g., chloride (Cl), nitrogen oxides (NOx), total dissolved solid (TDS), potential of hydrogen (pH), and water temperature (WT)) were used for developing the standalone models by defining six combinations of input parameters. Results were evaluated using five performance criteria metrics. Overall results revealed that the CCNN model with input combination III (CCNN-III) provided the most accurate predictions of DO concentration values (root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.261 mg/L, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.736, Willmott’s index of agreement (WI) = 0.919, R² = 0.801, and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.989 mg/L) for the standalone model category. In the second stage, two decomposition approaches, including discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and variational mode decomposition (VMD), were employed to improve the accuracy of DO concentration using the MLP and CCNN models with input combination III (e.g., DWT-MLP-III, DWT-CCNN-III, VMD-MLP-III, and VMD-CCNN-III). From the results, the DWT-MLP-III and VMD-MLP-III models provided better accuracy than the standalone models (e.g., MLP-III and CCNN-III). Comparison of the best hybrid soft computing models showed that the VMD-MLP-III model with 4 intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and 10 quadratic penalty factor (VMD-MLP-III (K = 4 and α = 10)) model yielded slightly better performance than the DWT-MLP-III with Daubechies-6 (D6) and Symmlet-6 (S6) (DWT-MLP-III (D6 and S6)) models. Unfortunately, the DWT-CCNN-III and VMD-CCNN-III models did not improve the performance of the CCNN-III model. It was found that the CCNN-III model cannot be used to apply the hybrid soft computing modeling for prediction of the DO concentration. Graphical comparisons (e.g., Taylor diagram and violin plot) were also utilized to examine the similarity between the observed and predicted DO concentration values. The DWT-MLP-III and VMD-MLP-III models can be an alternative tool for accurate prediction of the DO concentration values.

Utilizing new approaches to accurately predict groundwater level (GWL) in arid regions is of vital importance. In this study, support vector regression (SVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and their combination with wavelet transformation (named wavelet-support vector regression (W-SVR) and wavelet-Gaussian process regression (W-GPR)) are used to forecast groundwater level in Semnan plain (arid area) for the next month. Three different wavelet transformations, namely Haar, db4, and Symlet, are tested. Four statistical metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R²), and Nah-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), are used to evaluate performance of different methods. The results reveal that SVR with RMSE of 0.04790 (m), MAPE of 0.00199%, R² of 0.99995, and NS of 0.99988 significantly outperforms GPR with RMSE of 0.55439 (m), MAPE of 0.04363%, R2 of 0.99264, and NS of 0.98413. Besides, the hybrid W-GPR-1 model (i.e. GPR with Harr wavelet) remarkably improves the accuracy of GWL prediction compared to GPR. Finally, the hybrid W-SVR-3 model (i.e. SVR with Symlet) provides the best GWL prediction with RMSE, MAPE, R2, and NS of 0.01290 (m), 0.00079%, 0.99999, and 0.99999, respectively. Overall, the findings indicate that hybrid models can accurately predict GWL in arid regions.