Hanifah Al Affiani

Ms. Hanifah Al Affiani

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

1Year (2026-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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26 June 2026 in Mathematics
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Hanifah Al AffianiHanifah Al Affiani
Hanifah Al Affiani
MJMuhamad Deni Johansyah
Muhamad Deni Johansyah
Endang RusyamanEndang Rusyaman
Endang Rusyaman
Sukono SukonoSukono Sukono
Sukono Sukono
NHNurfadhlina binti Abdul Halim
Nurfadhlina binti Abdul Halim
ASAceng Sambas
Aceng Sambas
Rainfall-index-based disaster insurance is an efficient approach to mitigating hydrometeorological losses. However, conventional premium pricing models generally assume memoryless stochastic dynamics that do not fully capture the long-range dependence inherent in rainfall data. This study develops a hydrometeorological disaster insurance model within a fractional Black–Scholes framework to incorporate long-memory effects. The model is formulated using fractional differential equations and solved semi-analytically by integrating the Daftardar–Jafari Method (DJM) with the Kashuri–Fundo (KF) transform, yielding a closed-form solution expressed in terms of the Mittag–Leffler function. The proposed contract is structured as parametric rainfall insurance with a multi-layer payout mechanism based on percentiles corresponding to minor, moderate, and severe housing damage. The results show that variations in the fractional-order parameter significantly affect premium estimation. In particular, δ=0.5 recovers the classical model and tends to generate higher premiums than the fractional model with δ1=0.23153, whereas the model with δ2=0.73153 yields lower premiums. These findings indicate that fractional-order parameterization can accommodate diverse risk characteristics and policyholders’ economic capacities, enabling more adaptive, risk-sensitive premium structures. In line with SDG 13 (Climate Action), the proposed framework offers a climate-responsive disaster-mitigation strategy through accessible, actuarially relevant insurance design.