The spatial distribution of votes for the 2022’s presidential election in Brazil overlaid with the range of the Brazilian biomes indicated a political division within these ecoregions. A high number of supporters to the far-right concentrated in the southern Amazon, while a concentration of votes for the center-left wing was observed in the most pristine region of the Brazilian Amazon and also in the Caatinga biome. In the Legal Amazon, there was a strong positive relation between the proportion of votes per municipality for the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro and the total forest loss accumulated in the last 36 years prior to this election (1985-2021) in each municipality. This region with a historical high rate of deforestation also concentrates various crimes and practices that drive environmental and social impacts, such as land grabbing in public land, mining in indigenous territories, illegal logging in protected areas, expulsion of traditional populations and increased use of agro-chemicals and gun permits. The strengthening and continued convergence of these policies and practices may lead the Amazon to a tipping point, which prevents the recovery and maintenance of its ecosystem services, triggering irreversible environmental, social and economic impacts. Reversing this trend depends on measures and actions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, in all three spheres (municipal, state and federal), and involves the election of local and regional political forces that represent counterpoints to the anti-socio-environmental agendas that are being strengthened in the current context.

Over 130 countries have committed to reaching net-zero CO2 or GHG emissions by 2050, yet this ambition is rarely underpinned by robust policies. By applying a detailed integrated assessment modelling approach for Brazil, we assess, for the first time, the extent to which the existing and planned local policies could put Brazil on the path to its net zero pledge. This includes quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as protection and restoration, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We show protection is the single most important climate mitigation measure at relatively low costs, whereas relying heavily on engineered solutions would jeopardise Brazil’s chances of achieving its net zero pledge. We also show that the mismatch between Brazil's short- and long-term climate targets reflects current weak environmental governance. Our analysis reinforces the urgent need for Brazil to eliminate illegal deforestation and go beyond to help fight climate change whilst curbing biodiversity loss.

Brazil is among the global leaders of native vegetation conversion and agricultural expansion rates. The rates of native vegetation suppression and recovery, as well as the drivers underlying land conversion dynamics, vary among the six Brazilian biomes. Here we analyze the trajectories of four native vegetation types, three anthropic classes and water in Brazil and its biomes between 1985 and 2024. Using trajectory analysis, we also investigate land change history in areas of cropland expansion. The proportion of trajectories varied between native vegetation types and biomes, with forests showing a larger proportion of stable areas, savannas a higher proportion of loss and grasslands and wetlands a greater proportion of trajectories involving alternation, mostly in the Pantanal. Pasture gain was proportionally higher in Pantanal and the Amazon while in the Atlantic Forest its loss was proportionally higher than in other biomes. Gain of croplands was proportionally higher in the Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga. The proportion of native vegetation and pasture trajectories in areas of croplands expansion also varied markedly between and within biomes. Our analysis advances the original trajectories method by examining per-pixel trajectories across different classes, revealing crucial regional differences in land use history.