Expanding the Soy Moratorium to the Cerrado biome would prevent the direct conversion of 3.6 million ha of intact Cerrado to soy.

While wind power is a low-carbon renewable energy technology with relatively little land footprint, the necessary infrastructure expansion still has land-related environmental impacts. Brazil has seen more than a ten-fold increase in wind power capacity in the last decade. However, little is known about these impacts of wind power generation in Brazil compared to other world regions, although Brazilian wind power infrastructure is concentrated in the least protected ecosystems that are prone to degradation, desertification and species extinction. This study focuses on land-use impacts of past wind power generation development in four Brazilian federal states, covering 80% of the country’s installed capacity. We assessed their spatial installation patterns, associated land-use and land cover change in the period before installation until 2018, and potential alternative installation locations, using a detailed wind turbine location database in combination with a high-resolution land-use and land cover map. In contrast to wind parks built in Europe, we found that 62% of the studied wind park area was covered by native vegetation and coastal sands. Overall, 3.2% of the total wind cluster area was converted from native vegetation to anthropogenic use. Wind parks installed mainly on native vegetation, on average, underwent higher land-use change compared to other wind parks. As Brazil intends to more than double its current wind power capacities by 2029, we explored possibilities to reduce environmental risks due to wind power expansion. We showed that this is feasible by integrating wind parks into human-altered areas, as sufficient wind resources there are available.

Meeting Brazil’s ambitious national commitments on both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation depends on securing its reserves of forest carbon and biodiversity. Brazil’s ‘Forest Code’ is a key tool to reconcile environmental preservation and agricultural production; it limits deforestation and requires forest restoration in illegally deforested areas. However, not all provisions of the law’s 2012 revision have yet been implemented and some are facing new challenges. Using modelled land use change projections for the whole of the country, we show that full implementation and enforcement of the law has the potential to contribute to conserving biodiversity. Biodiversity outcomes will be especially positive if (i) deforested areas are restored in ways that support recolonization by native species and (ii) additional measures are implemented to protect native vegetation in areas like Caatinga dry forests and Cerrado savannas, which may experience added pressure displaced from other regions by Forest Code implementation.

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net‐zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net‐zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature‐based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost‐effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not‐mature‐yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net‐zero pledge by mid‐century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short‐term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net‐zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large‐scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid‐century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net‐zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net‐zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land‐use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short‐ and long‐term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.

Brazil once set the example for curtailing deforestation with command and control policies, but, in the last decade, these interventions have gone astray. Environmental research and policy today are largely informed by the earlier successes of deforestation interventions, but not their recent failures. Here, we investigate the resilience of deforestation interventions. We discuss how the recent trend reversal in Brazil came to be, and what its implications for the design of future policies are. We use newly compiled information on environmental fines in an econometric model to show that the enforcement of environmental policy has become ineffective in recent years. Our results add empirical evidence to earlier studies documenting the erosion of the institutions responsible for forest protection, and highlight the considerable deforestation impacts of this erosion. Future efforts for sustainable forest protection should be aimed at strengthening institutions, spreading responsibilities, and redistributing the common value of forests via incentive-based systems.