There is significant interest in treatment de-escalation for human papillomavirus-associated (HPV⁺) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients given the generally favourable prognosis. However, 15–30% of patients recur after primary treatment, reflecting a need for improved risk-stratification tools. We sought to develop a molecular test to risk stratify HPV⁺ OPSCC patients. We created an immune score (UWO3) associated with survival outcomes in six independent cohorts comprising 906 patients, including blinded retrospective and prospective external validations. Two aggressive radiation de-escalation cohorts were used to assess the ability of UWO3 to identify patients who recur. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the associations between the UWO3 immune class and outcomes. A three-gene immune score classified patients into three immune classes (immune rich, mixed, or immune desert) and was strongly associated with disease-free survival in six datasets, including large retrospective and prospective datasets. Pooled analysis demonstrated that the immune rich group had superior disease-free survival compared to the immune desert (HR = 9.0, 95% CI: 3.2–25.5, P = 3.6 × 10⁻⁵) and mixed (HR = 6.4, 95% CI: 2.2–18.7, P = 0.006) groups after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, and AJCC8 clinical stage. Finally, UWO3 was able to identify patients from two small treatment de-escalation cohorts who remain disease-free after aggressive de-escalation to 30 Gy radiation. With additional prospective validation, the UWO3 score could enable biomarker-driven clinical decision-making for patients with HPV⁺ OPSCC based on robust outcome prediction across six independent cohorts. Prospective de-escalation and intensification clinical trials are currently being planned. CIHR, European Union, and the NIH.

Tumour relapse is recognized to be the prime fatal burden in patients affected by head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), but no discrete molecular trait has yet been identified to make reliable early predictions of tumour recurrence. Expression of cell surface proteoglycans (PGs) is frequently altered in carcinomas and several of them are gradually emerging as key prognostic factors. A PG expression analysis at both mRNA and protein level, was pursued on primary lesions derived from 173 HNSCC patients from whom full clinical history and 2 years post-surgical follow-up was accessible. Gene and protein expression data were correlated with clinical traits and previously proposed tumour relapse markers to stratify high-risk patient subgroups. HNSCC lesions were indeed found to exhibit a widely aberrant PG expression pattern characterized by a variable expression of all PGs and a characteristic de novo transcription/translation of GPC2, GPC5 and NG2/CSPG4 respectively in 36%, 72% and 71% on 119 cases. Importantly, expression of NG2/CSPG4, on neoplastic cells and in the intralesional stroma (Hazard Ratio [HR], 6.76, p = 0.017) was strongly associated with loco-regional relapse, whereas stromal enrichment of SDC2 (HR, 7.652, p = 0.007) was independently tied to lymphnodal infiltration and disease-related death. Conversely, down-regulated SDC1 transcript (HR, 0.232, p = 0.013) uniquely correlated with formation of distant metastases. Altered expression of PGs significantly correlated with the above disease outcomes when either considered alone or in association with well-established predictors of poor prognosis (i.e. T classification, previous occurrence of precancerous lesions and lymphnodal metastasis). Combined alteration of all three PGs was found to be a reliable predictor of shorter survival. An unprecedented PG-based prognostic portrait is unveiled that incisively diversifies disease course in HNSCC patients beyond the currently known clinical and molecular biomarkers.

Background: Locoregionally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients have high relapse and mortality rates. Imaging-based decision support may improve outcomes by optimising personalised treatment, and support patient risk stratification. We propose a multifactorial prognostic model including radiomics features to improve risk stratification for advanced HNSCC, compared to TNM eighth edition, the gold standard. Patient and methods: Data of 666 retrospective- and 143 prospective-stage III-IVA/B HNSCC patients were collected. A multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model was trained to predict overall survival (OS) using diagnostic CT-based radiomics features extracted from the primary tumour. Separate analyses were performed using TNM8, tumour volume, clinical and biological variables, and combinations thereof with radiomics features. Patient risk stratification in three groups was assessed through Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves. A log-rank test was performed for significance (p-value < 0.05). The prognostic accuracy was reported through the concordance index (CI). Results: A model combining an 11-feature radiomics signature, clinical and biological variables, TNM8, and volume could significantly stratify the validation cohort into three risk groups (p < 0∙01, CI of 0.79 as validation). Conclusion: A combination of radiomics features with other predictors can predict OS very accurately for advanced HNSCC patients and improves on the current gold standard of TNM8.

PURPOSE: Under common therapeutic regimens, the prognosis of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive squamous oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPCs) is more favorable than HPV-negative OPCs. However, the prognosis of some tumors is dismal, and validated prognostic factors are missing in clinical practice. The present work aimed to validate the prognostic significance of our published three-cluster model and to compare its prognostic value with those of the 8^th edition of the tumor-node-metastasis staging system (TNM8) and published signatures and clustering models. METHODS: Patients with HPV DNA-positive OPCs with locoregionally advanced nonmetastatic disease treated with curative intent (BD2Decide observational study, NCT02832102 ) were considered as validation cohort. Patients were treated in seven European centers, with expertise in the multidisciplinary management of patients with head and neck cancer. The median follow-up was 46.2 months (95% CI, 41.2 to 50), and data collection was concluded in September 2019. The primary end point of this study was overall survival (OS). Three-clustering models and seven prognostic signatures were compared with our three-cluster model. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 235 patients. The three-cluster model confirmed its prognostic value. Two-year OS in each cluster was 100% in the low-risk cluster, 96.6% in the intermediate-risk cluster, and 86.3% in the high-risk cluster ( P = .00074). For the high-risk cluster, we observed an area under the curve = 0.832 for 2-year OS, significantly outperforming TNM 8th edition (area under the curve = 0.596), and functional and biological differences were identified for each cluster. CONCLUSION: The rigorous clinical selection of the cases included in this study confirmed the robustness of our three-cluster model in HPV-positive OPCs. The prognostic value was found to be independent and superior compared with TNM8. The next step includes the translation of the three-cluster model in clinical practice. This could open the way to future exploration of already available therapies in HPV-positive OPCs tailoring de-escalation or intensification according to the three-cluster model.