Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Currently, water monitoring programs are mainly based on in situ measurements; however, this approach is time-consuming, expensive, and may not reflect the status of the whole water body. The availability of Multispectral Imager (MSI) and Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) free data with high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution has increased the potential of adding remote sensing techniques into monitoring programs, leading to improvement of the quality of monitoring water. This study introduced an optical water type guided approach for boreal regions inland and coastal waters to estimate optical water quality parameters, such as the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total suspended matter (TSM), the absorption coefficient of coloured dissolved organic matter at a wavelength of 442 nm (aCDOM(442)), and the Secchi disk depth, from hyperspectral, OLCI, and MSI reflectance data. This study was based on data from 51 Estonian and Finnish lakes and from the Baltic Sea coastal area, which altogether were used in 415 in situ measurement stations and covered a wide range of optical water quality parameters (Chl-a: 0.5–215.2 mg·m⁻³; TSM: 0.6–46.0 mg·L⁻¹; aCDOM(442): 0.4–43.7 m⁻¹; and Secchi disk depth: 0.2–12.2 m). For retrieving optical water quality parameters from reflectance spectra, we tested 132 empirical algorithms. The study results describe the best algorithm for each optical water type for each spectral range and for each optical water quality parameter. The correlation was high, from 0.87 up to 0.93, between the in situ measured optical water quality parameters and the parameters predicted by the optical water type guided approach.

The Sentinel-3 mission launched its first satellite Sentinel-3A in 2016 to be followed by Sentinel-3B and Sentinel-3C to provide long-term operational measurements over Earth. Sentinel-3A and 3B are in full operational status, allowing global coverage in less than two days, usable to monitor optical water quality and provide data for environmental studies. However, due to limited ground truth data, the product quality has not yet been analyzed in detail with the fiducial reference measurement (FRM) dataset. Here, we use the fully characterized ground truth FRM dataset for validating Sentinel-3A Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) radiometric products over optically complex Estonian inland waters and Baltic Sea coastal areas. As consistency between satellite and local data depends on uncertainty in field measurements, filtering of the in situ data has been made based on the uncertainty for the final comparison. We have compared various atmospheric correction methods and found POLYMER (POLYnomial-based algorithm applied to MERIS) to be most suitable for optically complex waters under study in terms of product accuracy, amount of usable data and also being least influenced by the adjacency effect.