South American coffee producers face growing challenges due to external trade dependencies and climate-induced disruptions. This study investigates the role of export market diversification as a sustainability strategy for four major regional exporters of roasted non-decaffeinated coffee: Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador. A quantitative and comparative methodology was applied over a ten-year period using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) to evaluate export market concentration and the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index—including its normalized variant—to assess international competitiveness by destination. The results reveal substantial disparities: Brazil and Colombia exhibit moderate to high diversification and relative competitiveness in select markets, while Peru and Ecuador remain dependent on a few strategic buyers, with limited or declining comparative advantages. The findings emphasize that sustained export performance in the coffee sector requires not only a broader destination portfolio but also improved positioning through trade agreements, infrastructure development, and climate-resilient innovation. This study concludes with a strategic proposal based on three pillars—commercial, logistical, and technological—to support structural transformation and enhance the long-term sustainability of the coffee trade in South America.

This study examined the sustainability of global table grape exports from 2020 to 2024, focusing on two key dimensions: market diversification and international competitiveness. Using data from Trade Map and applying the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and the Revealed Comparative Advantage Normalized Index (RCAN), the research analyzed the export performance of major grape-exporting countries, including Peru, Chile, the Netherlands, Italy, the United States, South Africa, and China. The results showed significant differences in both market structure and competitive positioning. Countries like Peru and South Africa demonstrated rapid export growth and high competitiveness in certain markets, but faced elevated levels of market concentration, exposing them to external shocks. In contrast, Italy and the Netherlands maintained more diversified portfolios but showed modest competitiveness. The study concluded that no country achieved an ideal balance between diversification and competitiveness. As a result, it is recommended that governments pursue integrated trade strategies that promote geographic expansion alongside measures to enhance export competitiveness. Investments in logistics, quality certifications, and market intelligence are essential to reduce vulnerability and ensure long-term export sustainability.

In recent years, Peru’s agricultural sector has expanded steadily despite recurrent external shocks and persistent volatility in global commodity markets. This sustained performance reflects the sector’s exposure to international price dynamics, a connection with direct implications for structural sustainability in a small, open and commodity-dependent economy. In this context, the study examines whether the terms of trade (TOT) sustain a stable long-run relationship with Peru’s agricultural GDP and assesses how this linkage shapes structural sustainability. The analysis applies Johansen’s cointegration method combined with a bivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), enabling the identification of common long-run trends and the estimation of adjustment speeds following external shocks. The results reveal a single cointegrating vector and a negative, highly significant error-correction term in the agricultural equation, indicating that the sector gradually corrects deviations from its long-run equilibrium. In contrast, the TOT display no meaningful adjustment mechanism, behaving as a weakly exogenous driver. Short-run effects of external shocks are small and statistically fragile, suggesting that quarterly disturbances are overshadowed by the longer-run correction process. Beyond quantifying these dynamics, the study offers a structural reading of how volatile imported inputs—fertilisers, fuels and agricultural machinery—influence agricultural performance, even when export prices are favourable. Overall, the findings underscore that long-term sustainability depends not only on global price trajectories but also on domestic productive capacities and gradual technological improvement, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies in an environment of persistent global volatility.

Los países de América Latina son economías cuyos ingresos por exportaciones dependen en gran medida de la venta de productos primarios de bajo valor agregado, como el petróleo y los metales. El objetivo de este estudio es determinar la respuesta de la actividad industrial (medida por el Índice del PIB industrial) ante el comportamiento de la relación de intercambio (medida por el Índice de la relación de intercambio) en el Perú, durante el período 2013-2023. La investigación tiene un enfoque cuantitativo, de tipo aplicada, con diseño no experimental de corte longitudinal, utilizando el análisis de regresión por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios. Los resultados sugieren que existe una relación negativa significativa entre la actividad industrial y la relación de intercambio, lo que permitió determinar que el país sufre de la enfermedad holandesa. Se concluye que este mal provoca una distribución desigual de la riqueza, favoreciendo a los sectores vinculados a los recursos naturales; mientras que otros, como el industrial, quedan rezagados, aumentando así la desigualdad económica y social. Ante ello, tanto Perú como los países de la región, necesitan implementar estrategias para estabilizar la economía, diversificarla, reducir la dependencia de recursos naturales, así como promover el bienestar social de sus ciudadanos.

In recent decades, Peru’s manufacturing sector has steadily declined in its share of gross domestic product, despite sustained economic growth and repeated improvements in the terms of trade. This study investigates whether this divergence between external bonanza and industrial stagnation reflects a manifestation of Dutch disease, with long-term implications for the structural sustainability of the country’s manufacturing base. A quantitative approach is applied through a multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares, using quarterly data from 2012 to 2024. The analysis includes control variables such as real gross domestic product, private gross fixed investment, the real exchange rate, and a dummy for COVID-19. The results reveal a negative and statistically significant relationship between terms of trade and manufacturing performance, suggesting that favorable external shocks may undermine productive capacities by exacerbating structural vulnerabilities. Beyond quantifying this effect, the study offers a structural interpretation of how external shocks can erode industrial resilience in economies dependent on commodity exports. These findings underscore that structural sustainability depends not only on external conditions, but also on internal factors such as investment dynamics, institutional governance, and technological innovation capacity. In addressing a gap in the literature on Dutch disease and sectoral sustainability in the Peruvian context, the study concludes by calling for a strategic reorientation of industrial policy toward a more diversified, inclusive, and innovation-driven growth model, capable of absorbing external rents productively and ensuring the long-term resilience of the manufacturing sector amid persistent global volatility.

This study analyses the relationship between terms of trade (ToT) and the GDP of Peru's mining sector over the 2000-2023 period. Given the country's structural dependence on mineral exports, the investigation explores how international price fluctuations affect the sector's performance. Using a quantitative, non-experimental and ex post facto design, the analysis applies Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results reveal a moderate positive correlation (ρ = 0.530; p = 0.008) between ToT and mining GDP, indicating that variations in international trade prices significantly influence the sector's economic output. The findings also highlight cyclical dynamics in export and import price indices, and the sensitivity of mineral production and export values to external shocks, such as the 2008 global crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study advocates for export diversification, risk mitigation strategies, and the adoption of artificial intelligence to forecast price volatility and enhance macroeconomic resilience.